High Surf in Hawaii, December 6 to 7, 2001

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION AND GUIDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
10 AM HST THU DEC 6 2001

SUMMARY...ISLAND SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONGER TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS.

DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERIC MODELS KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BETWEEN 30N AND 35N FOR ANOTHER TEN DAYS. THE ISLANDS LAYING
AT OR NEAR 20N WILL THUS BE WELL WITHIN THE TRADE WIND BELT SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE.

WIND SPEED DEPENDS ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE STEEPER THE
GRADIENT...THE STRONGER THE WINDS. EXCEPT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES...
PRESSURE CHANGES LITTLE SOUTH OF HERE. THAT LEAVES US WITH CHANGES
TO THE NORTH...AS IN HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING EAST ALONG THE RIDGE.
ONE SUCH HIGH NOW ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DATELINE WILL PASS NORTH
OF HERE FRIDAY AND REINFORCE ANOTHER HIGH PARKED NORTHEAST OF HERE.
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF THE COMBINED HIGH WILL STEEPEN THE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE THE TRADES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO ORGANIZATION IN THE CLOUD FIELD UPSTREAM
OF HAWAII. SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE BE RANDOM AND BRIEF IN DURATION
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SURF...WITH THE TRADES INCREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EAST
SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LARGE THOUGH SLOPPY SURF. SURF ALONG
NORTH AND WEST SHORES WILL DROP OFF FRIDAY HOWEVER BECAUSE THE FETCH
AREA SOUTHWEST OF A LOW SEVERAL DAYS AGO WAS AIMED AT HAWAII FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. CRAIG.

.PHFO.....WARNINGS.....NONE
.         WATCHES......NONE
.         ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT
.                      HIGH SURF EAST AND NORTHWEST SHORES