Damaging Wind in Florida, June 5, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2001

AT PRESS TIME THIS HAS TURNED INTO A DIFFICULT FORECAST DEPENDANT...
ESPECIALLY BEYOND THE 2ND PERIOD ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM
ALLISON IN THE EXTREME NW GULF. ITS LOCATED AT 28.3N/94.7W...80 SSE
OF GALVESTON TX MOVING N AT 11 KNOTS WITH MAX WINDS 50KTS G60KTS ON
EAST SIDE. ALLISON FORECASTED TO MOVE ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE (FROM FLA-GA BORDER WWD THRU LA) AND INTO SE TX//SW
LA. THE LONGER TERM TRACK COULD INCREASINGLY FACTOR INTO LOCAL
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF IT MOVES MORE NELY INCREASG CHC OF PRECIP.
LIKEWISE...IT WILL LIKELY EFFECT MARINE CONDS ESPECIALLY WINDS AND
IF IT SLOWS DOWN...SWELLS ACROSS WRN WATERS. THUS ANY FUTURE
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE MODIFIED TO REFLECT ABOVE.

OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER MOST OF STATE WITH SURFACE
RIDGE S INTO THE GULF. THUS LOCAL AREA CONTS IN SULTRY UNSTABLE SE/S
FLOW PATTERN. CONSIDERABLY LESS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THAN
FORECASTED WITH ACTIVITY LARGELY CONFINED TO COASTLINE AND ADJACENT
WATERS OF WRN APALACH BAY. ABOVE MENTIONED LOW MAY BE PART OF REASON
AS SATELLITE CLEARLY SHOWS CIRRUS OUTFLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON EAST
SIDE SPREADING TOWARDS LOCAL AREA LIKELY SUPRESSING VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW THIRD OF CWFA.

LOOKING TO TOMORROW...CNTRL PLAINS UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES SE TO
COAST BUT WITH REMNANTS OF ALLISON EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS SRN
PLAINS/MISS RIVER VALLEY...ASSOCD FRONT MAY LOOSE PUSH AND NOT MAKE
IT ACROSS AREA (OR IN WEAKENED STATE) THAN ORIGINALLY PROGGED.
AGAIN...THIS PUTS A FEW WRENCHES IN FORECAST. AS SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES SOUTH THRU PERIOD...LOCAL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION SWITCHES FROM WRN THIRD OF CWFA TO SE THIRD BY
THURSDAY.

MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH NGM SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
THAN WETTEST MODEL...AVN...THRU THE PERIOD. ETA SOMEWHAT DRIER THAN
AVN BUT FAR WETTER THAN NGM. FOR EXAMPLE TALLAHASSEE NGM POPS FOR
THE FIRST THREE PERIODS ARE 11/18/16 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY COMPARED
WITH FAN 42/63/35 PERCENT. NOT SUPRISINGLY DRIER NGM WITH FEWER
CLOUDS...COOLER NIGHTS AND HOTTER DAYS THAN OTHER TWO MODELS. WILL
FOLLOW ETA AND POPS WILL CONT IN MID-HI SCT BUT GIVEN ABOVE
CONFIDENCE LEVEL NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

EXTENDED: UPPER TROF STAYS OVER ERN CONUS AS ASSOCD SURFACE FRONT
MOVES THRU AND THEN STALLS S OF CWFA. AGAIN GIVEN UNCERTAINLY OF
ABOVE...ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE. IF SOME OF LOW
PRECIP SHEARS EWD THEN ADDED TO FRONTAL PRECIP MAY GENERATE VERY WET
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
CWFA BEGINNING ON SAT.

MARINE: AGAIN...MARINE FORECAST AGAIN NOT MADE WITH HIGHEST DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY...EXPECT TIGHTEST MARINE GRADS TONIGHT BUT STILL
BELWO SCEC CRITIERIA. AND...AS ALLISON MOVES INLAND...WINDS SHUD
WEAKEN FURTHER BY MORNING. THEY SHUD INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN SFP
AHEAD OF FRONT.

THANK MOBILE FOR MARINE COORDINATION.

FIRE WX:NO CONCERNS.

.PRELIMARY NUMBERS...
TLH 71 90 72 88 2535
PFN 73 87 74 84 2535
DHN 72 89 72 85 2645
ABY 71 88 71 85 2645
VLD 71 87 72 88 2535

.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

BLOCK