Extreme Cold in Florida, December 27, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1214 AM EST THU DEC 27 2001

CURRENTLY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER FLA WITH WINDS NW RECORDED
MAINLY ALONG E COAST AS WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED WITH NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS IN THE INTERIOR AND W ZONES. VEIL OF CIRRUS FROM
SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS MEXICO AND S PORTION GUFMEX MOVING OVER S
HALF OF FLA INHIBITING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAST. THIS
SHIELD EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT LEAST.

OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, VORTEX REMAINS OVER E CANADA N OF THE GREAT
LAKES WITH FLA AT BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH OVER THE SE GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE
SE OVER S FLA WITH WINDS DECREASING FROM THE NW TODAY AND BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SHIFTING SE AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES
SE. TEMPS, MAX AND MIN, MAY BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY INFLUENCE OF
SUBTROPICAL JET MENTIONED IN 1ST PARAGRAPH AS MODELS PERSISTENT IN
KEEPING SYSTEM OVER S FLA. EXPECT ZERO POPS.

IN THE EXTENDED, ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BROAD E U.S.
TROUGH WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED INTO N FLA SATURDAY WITH
SYSTEM MOVING INTO S FLA EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO SW N ATLC AND FLA
STRAITS SUNDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY STALLING S OF FLA. HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS OVER THE STATE FROM THE NW AGAIN MONDAY. BUT THE
SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUDINESS A CONTINUAL PROSPECT. LONG RANGE CROSS SECTIONS AND
SURFACE PROGS INDICATE THOUGH DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF DEVELOP -MENT OF SURFACE WAVES ALONG THE FRONT S OF
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP  POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
SUNDAY WITH FRONT THEN MAINLY AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MARINE ZONES, CURRENT BUOYS (04Z)ATLC AND ALONG KEYS STILL
INDICATING NW 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER CHECKING PROGS WILL GO WITH NW/N
15 KTS THIS MORNING DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING VARIABLE
<10 KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER AREA. WINDS
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME SE AS HIGH SLIPS TO E. IN THE
EXTENDED, WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AND SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND BECOME W TO NW NEAR 15 KNOTS SUNDAY BECOMING
MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY. WILL KEEP ADVISORY IN GULF STREAM TODAY DUE
TO SEAS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS
AGAIN BY MONDAY.

FOR FIRE WEATHER, MODELS YESTERDAY INDICATED LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER E
PORTION OF CWA AT 925MB WHICH BEARING OUT AT THE MOMENT AS LOWEST
DEWPOINTS (30S) ALONG E COAST. MODELS TODAY INDICATE A GRADUAL
REBOUND TO THE LOWER 40S. WITH MAX TEMPS MITIGATED BY CIRRUS SHIELD
SOMEWHAT, HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 40% FOR MINIMUMS.

PBI AA 064/048 071/054 077 150000-
FLL AA 067/050 072/057 078 150000-
MIA AA 066/049 071/055 079 150000-
APF AA 064/050 070/054 075 150000-=

.MIA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GULF STREAM TODAY.