Hail in Colorado, May 6, 2001

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
230 PM MDT SUN MAY 6 2001

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  WEAK QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF THE
JET DROPPING TOWARD US THIS EVENING.  MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ON
THE DETAILS...BUT OVERALL THIS FEATURE APPEARS FASTER/WEAKER THAN
WHAT THE MODELS SHOW.  HARD TO TELL BECAUSE THE AIR MASS IS MUCH
DRIER TO OUR WEST...BUT THIS WILL BE MOVING IN ON TOP OF OUR SHALLOW
SURFACE MOISTURE.  SO I SUSPECT THAT THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MODELS IS OVERDONE AS IS THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE CTRL CO MOUNTAINS...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE THESE WILL PROBABLY DIE RATHER THAN SPREAD ONTO THE
PLAINS.

LESS CLOUD COVER MEANS ENOUGH COOLING FOR WIDESPREAD FOG.  THE
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER
BY MORNING...SO THE PARAMATERS FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
MARGINAL THERE...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SATURATE ACROSS MOST
OF THE PLAINS.  WITH RATHER LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THERE COULD BE AREAS
OF DENSE FOG...BUT I WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TEND TO THIS DETAIL AS
THE SITUATION BECOMES CLEARER.  THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PREVENT FROST IN MOST PLACES.     GIMMESTAD

LONG TERM DISCUSSION: A DRIER NW FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK FOR A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
THRU WED. AFTER SOME FOG/LOW CLDS MONDAY MORNING THINGS SHOULD WARM
UP NICELY INTO THE LOWER 60S MON AFTN. BEYOND THAT...GRIDDED DATA
SUPPORTS FURTHER WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR TUE AND WED. WE'LL KEEP A
DRY FCST GOING...BUT TIME OF YEAR COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL SFC MSTR AND
DAY TIME HEATING MAY LEAD TO A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE MTNS. WILL NOT
MENTION IN ZONES FOR NOW AS CHANCE SEEMS RATHER MINIMAL. NEXT
WEATHER MAKER WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN INTO CWA LATE WED NITE AND THU
WITH WK FRONT. APPEARS ENOUGH MSTR AVAILABLE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MENTIONED IN ZONES.

BEYOND THU...TRANSITION PRD BEGINS AS NW FLOW SHIFTS TO THE W AND SW
OVER THE WEEKEND AS NEW WEST COAST TROF MOVES IN WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY MTN vRGN. STILL LOOKS DRY AND QUITE WARM.
ENTREKIN

.DEN...NONE.