Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, May 6, 2001

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
230 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2001

TSRA FIRING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE NOW OVER
EASTERN NM. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
OVER CENTRAL/SE TX CAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG AND LIS OF -8 TO -10. SPC
JUST ISSUED TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 02Z FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TX.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED ETA/MESOETA FOR FCST AS LATEST AVN IS TOO WEAK
WITH SHORTWAVE OVER NM AND HAS LESS OF A HANDLE ON SURFACE FEATURES.
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TX TNGT WITH TSRA INCREASING ACROSS
CENTRAL TX REST OF THE AFTN...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE.
12Z MESOETA SHOWS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND LIFT AT 700
MB ACROSS SE TX AFTER 03Z WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO PROPAGATE
INTO CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND PRIMARY THREAT. TSRA SHOULD PUSH OUT OF CWA BY
LATE MORNING BUT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE AGAIN DURING THE AFTN.

WEAK COOL FRONT SLIDES INTO SE TX MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSRA. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE AND
UNCAPPED YIELDING ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MONDAY
AFTN/MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WILL MEAN LESS PCPN
COVERAGE. WINDS BRIEFLY TURN AROUND TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO CWA FROM NE TUESDAY
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR EXTENDED...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN FCST WED/THU THEN GO DRY FCST FOR FRI/SAT. TEMPS WILL CREEP
UP A LITTLE TOWARD WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL PLAINS.

35/47/BT

.HGX...NONE.

PRELIMS...
CLL EE 066/084 066/082 062 634
IAH EE 068/084 067/082 063 534
GLS EE 073/081 071/079
 070 443

GMZ330-335-350-355-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-
071000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
315 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT
ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING OVER
THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS.

THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORNING...
BUT THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL DESTABILIZE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH AGAIN
COULD BECOME SEVERE.

PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND PLAN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-227-070600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
647 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2001

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
UNTIL 100 AM TONIGHT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 100 AM
TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...AND WASHINGTON. THE TORNADO WATCH
INCLUDES METRO HOUSTON.

THE ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING IS VERY UNSTABLE. THIS MEANS THAT THE
AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE IS WARM AND MOIST...WHILE COOLER DRIER
CONDITIONS EXIST ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA COULD LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER THE AREA.

BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BEGIN NEAR 800 PM IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF THE
REGION...SPOTS SUCH AS COLLEGE STATION...MADISONVILLE AND CROCKETT...
WHILE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH SUCH AS CLEVELAND...METRO HOUSTON AND
COLUMBUS WOULD LIKELY NOT EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. REMEMBER...THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OR A TORNADO IS THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A REINFORCED BUILDING...AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

END/46