Hail and Damaging Wind in Arkansas, May 6, 2001

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
116 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2001

SHORT WAVE JUST ENTERING WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO START
KICKING OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST
WITH CONVECTION IN THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE.
UNCERTAIN ABOUT CHC FOR PCP THIS EVE BEHIND MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION THAT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO NW ARK/SE OK AFTER 0Z.
ETA/RUC/NGM/AVN ALL HINT AT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER NE OK AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAIN AREA
WILL CERTAINLY MOVE S AND E OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL
LEAVE SLGHT CHC/CHC POPS AHEAD OF FRONTAL POS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGHEST POPS IN E ZONES. WILL SIDE WITH ETA GRIDS AND MOVE CHC
FOR PCP OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING
DURING THE MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR WITH BLYR DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH SUNNY SKY EXPECTED TO LET TEMPS WARM NICELY ON TUE.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK WITH CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF FRONT ON FRI CONDITIONAL ON RETURN OF SIG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT IT IS STILL MAY SO CERTAINLY CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS
IT.

GENERALLY FAVORED COOLER MAV TEMPS ESP FOR MONDAY MAXES AND
MONDAY NIGHT MINS.

FCSTID = 13
TUL   57  75  50  78 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   60  75  52  78 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   60  75  52  78 /  50  10   0   0
BVO   53  75  48  78 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   57  72  45  75 /  60  10   0   0
BYV   57  72  45  75 /  60  10   0   0
MIO   57  72  45  75 /  60  10   0   0
MKO   60  75  52  78 /  50  10   0   0
F10   57  75  50  78 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   62  78  55  79 /  60  W10   0   0

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2001

...UPDATE FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS...

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 203 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED.  WIND FIELDS HAVE
BEEN MARGINALLY SUPPORT OF STORM ROTATION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SO
FAR TODAY. HOWEVER AS AN UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAX IN THE JET STREAM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM TEXAS THIS EVENING...THE SURFACE WINDS MAY BACK IN
RESPONSE AND THE WIND FIELDS MAY BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
STORMS.  IF THIS OCCURS...AN INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
MAY HAPPEN THIS EVENING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND SPOTTER GROUPS IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE AND MONITOR FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...WITH THE THREAT
INCREASING IN PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES AFTER 8PM.
SPOTTERS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THESE
STORMS AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTIVATION.

SEE SHORT TERM FORECASTS FROM THIS OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.