Tornadoes and Hail in Oklahoma, May 6, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2001

AFTER FURTHER REVIEW..WE WILL EXTEND THE MDT RISK UPGRADE ALL THE
WAY NORTH TO THE KS BORDER ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SAT
PIX ARE SHOWING TCU DEVELOPING ALL ALONG THE CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY AND
LOCAL RADARS HAVE WEAK ECHOES ALREADY.  DEEP CONVECTION MAY INITIATE
BY 1 PM..ESP FROM OKC NWD.
  MILLER

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2001

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD...TO
EL RENO... TO DUNCAN... TO WINDTHORST TEXAS.  LARGE HAIL... AND A
SOMEWHAT LESSER RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ACCOMPANY
ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP.

AT MIDDAY... LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.  IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW... A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE... AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE... AND A SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA.  AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND A
DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP FROM SOMEWHERE NEAR WEATHERFORD... SOUTHWARD TO
JUST EAST OF WICHITA FALLS.

THE AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE IS ALREADY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AT MIDDAY... AND SHOULD BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY
MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP IN
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS...
AND THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY PRESENT... WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
INCLUDING MULTICELL CLUSTERS... AND A FEW SUPERCELLS.  WITH VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE... THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER... AND A LESSER
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE
GREATEST WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FORM IN AN AREA SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM CHANDLER... TO OKLAHOMA CITY... TO DUNCAN...
TO WAURIKA WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND LOW
LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHEST. ALSO... SUPERCELL STORMS
TODAY MAY TREND TOWARD THE HIGH PRECIPITATION END OF THE SPECTRUM...
POSSIBLY MAKING SPOTTING DIFFICULT. STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF OKLAHOMA.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND WEATHER SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

 MILLER

`