Hail and Damaging Wind in Colorado, June 23, 2001

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
245 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2001

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST.  THIS IN TURN
SHOULD OPEN THE DOORS FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE TO BE ENTRAINED OVER
THE REGION.  DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH WEAK IMPULSES WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER MOUNTAINS AND EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH BASED CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF FOOTHILLS TO CONTINUE INTO EVENING HOURS.  POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WITH THE STORMS...BUT LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL.  AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED ACROSS PLAINS...SO ANY
CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS IN THAT DIRECTION WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...GRIDDED MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODELS HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO INITIATE IN
MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVE ONTO PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WITH
SOME UPPER SUPPORT... STORMS SHOULD MAKE THE EASTERN PLAINS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO .75 INCHES NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
AND ALMOST AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  MAY FINALLY SEE SOME RAINFALL
REACHING GROUND.  FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...STORMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING NEAR EASTERN BORDER BEFORE DISSIPATING.  GUIDANCE VALUES
SEEM REASONABLE.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS CWA BY AFTERNOON...FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CHANGE LITTLE FROM
MONDAY.  DECENT SHEAR DEVELOPS DURING AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AT LOW LEVELS.  AGAIN...STORMS TO LINGER INTO EVENING.
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 90 DUE TO CLOUD COVER...SO WILL UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A BIT.

IN EXTENDED PD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE OVER RGN THRU FRIDAY
ALLOWING FOR MONSOON MSTR TO ENTRAIN OVER CWA.  LATEST MODELS SHOW
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER AREA BY MID WEEK...WHICH COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME HEAVY RAINERS.  LATEST MRF RUN SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...WHICH SHIFTS THE MONSOON FLOW
WESTWARD.  THIS SCENARIO IMPLIES A DRIER AIRMASS OVER CWA AND A
LESSER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  D-L

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-232200-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1005 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY.  THE STORMS WILL INITIALLY
FIRE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY 1 PM...AND THEN GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SINCE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE DRY AND INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THE SsTORMS.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

BARJENBRUCH

LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
745 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2001

...PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT FOR JUNE 22 2001...

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0725 PM    9 S SIMLA                 CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/22/01   ELBERT

TS