Damaging Wind in Colorado, July 2, 2001

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
305 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2001

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  THE STRONG UPR LVL RDG LOOKS LIKE IT WANTS
TO TAKE UP PERMANENT RESIDENCE OVER THE 4-CRNRS AREA.  IN FACT...500
MB HGTS TMRW EVENING MAY APPROACH 600 DM AT KGJT.  ALG WITH THE HIGH
HGTS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MID-LVL MSTR TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE WL CONT CAUSG RNDS OF AFTN CONVECTION TO DVLP.  THE RIDGE AND
MSTR ARE ABT THE ONLY FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR NOW.  WITH THE RIDGE
IN PLACE...WINDS AND MSTR ADVECTION WL BE WEAK...SO DAY TO DAY
CHANGES WL BE MINIMAL.  IF ANYTHING...TEMPS SHUD GRADUALLY MODERATE
DUE TO THE SLIGHT INCREASES IN AMOUNT OF MSTR IN THE AMS.  NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF LOW LVL MSTR...
WHICH WUD NECESSITATE A CHANGE IN OUR THINKING.  WITHOUT ANY BIG
CHANGES OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PERSISTENCE REMAINS THE BEST FCST.

THERE ARE A FEW DETAILS TO ADDRESS.  ON WED EVENING THE AVN SHOWS A
SURGE OF COOLER AIR WHILE THE HIGH-RES ETA AND MRF DO NOT SHOW
THIS.  A FEW DAYS AGO...THE MRF WAS ADVERTISING SOME COOLING FOR WED
INTO THUR...BUT NOW IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL IF IT WL DVLP.  ANY
COOLING IN THE FCST IS GOING TO BE RELATED TO INCREASING MSTR RATHER
THAN A SURGE OF COOLER AIR FM THE NE.  AT ARND 120 HRS THE MRF SHOWS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTING A BIT TO THE EAST...OVER S-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.  IF THIS PATTERN COMES ABOUT...THE STATE COULD SEE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TROPICAL MSTR.  WL NOT MENTION THIS
NOW...BUT IF SUBSEQUENT MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING THE RIDGE
PROGRESSING ONTO THE PLAINS...LATER FCSTRS MAY NEED TO BEGIN
MENTIONING THE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.  UNTIL THEN WE
WILL SEE WARM TEMPS FOLLOWED BY AFTN AND EVENING SHOWERS EACH DAY.

DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-022000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1030 AM MDT MON JUL 2 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND ABOVE NORMAL HEAT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER.  A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL
HELP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS BY 1 PM.

THE URBAN CORRIDOR CAN EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 3 PM.  OUT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 4 PM...WITH ONE OR TWO POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE
OVER LOGAN...PHILLIPS...AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES.  THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED TODAY OVER THE NOaRTHEAST CORNER.

RJK

COZ030>051-022200-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
150 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS PUSHING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WELD...LARIMER...AND LOGAN COUNTIES.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS.
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

ANOTHER LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER THE PALMER
RIDGE IN ELBERT AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS BY 3:30 PM.  OVER THE REST
OF THE PLAINS...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED AFTER 4 PM.  OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER...WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS THE BEST...A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.

RJK

COZ042>044-048>051-022230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
300 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM EAST CENTRAL WELD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN LOGAN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...ONE OR
TWO BRIEF...BUT WEAK TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.  IF ONE DEVELOPS NEAR YOUR
LOCATION...MOVE INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER PHILLIPS...SEDGWICK...SOUTHERN LOGAN...AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THEY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

BARJENBRUCH

COZ042>044-048>051-022230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
400 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2001

...BRIEF TORNADO REPORTED NEAR PEETZ...

AT 354 PM...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF PEETZ.  AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LOGAN...PHILLIPS...SEDGWICK...AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...ONE OR TWO MORE BRIEF TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.  THE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...BUT PEOPLE SHOULD STILL MOVE INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 1
INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
COLORADO.

BARJENBRUCH