Waterspout in California, February 11, 2001

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST SUN FEB 11 2001

                             ...SYNOPSIS...

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD STORM WILL MOVE DOWN THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
AND LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE COULD
ALSO BE HAIL AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS STORMS
MOVE PAST TO THE NORTH.

                            ...DISCUSSION...

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF CWFA THIS AM. 12Z NKX SOUNDING HAD
6400 FT DEEP LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER WITH MODERATELY STRONG WSW WINDS
ALOFT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH 7-8 MB SAN-TPH AND 2-3 MB SAN-IPL.

COLD UPPER LOW DIGS S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUE. NGM TAKES IT ON
A MORE INLAND TRACK WHILE PREFERRED ETA/AVN KEEP IT CENTERED OFFSHORE.
LOTS OF POSSIBLE COMPLICATIONS TO THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST SUCH AS
LOW LEVEL SE FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM DELAYING ONSET OF PRECIP W OF
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY S. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO REACH THE SRN DESERTS. SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD START OUT AROUND 5000 FT MONDAY MORNING AND DROP TO NEAR
3000 FT TUE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TUE WHEN VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. THIS
IS ALSO A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS.
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MON SO FOR SIMPLICITY WILL
ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL MOUNTAINS MON THROUGH TUE. WILL
PROBABLY END UP WITH SNOW/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN SNA MOUNTAINS.
HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE NORTHER RANGES FIRST MON AND
SPREAD S LATE IN THE DAY. MAY NEED TO EXTEND SNOW ADVISORIES TO
APPLE/YUCCA VALLEYS TUE. COOL TO COLD WITH RELATIVELY MINOR TEMP CHANGES
EACH DAY. NORTHWEST SWELL COULD CAUSE SOME LOCAL LARGE SURF. RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM THE STORM SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES IN
COASTAL AREAS UP TO 3 INCHES NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. MOUNTAINS SHOULD GET 1
TO 2 FEET OF SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NRN DESERTS COULD GET 0.50 TO
0.75 INCH WITH UP TO 0.50 INCH IN SRN DESERTS. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME
URBAN FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY DURING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

LONGER RANGE PROGS INDICATE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER SRN CA WED FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU AM. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES
IN PROGS BUT GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A LITTLE WARMER DAYS THU THROUGH
SUNDAY.

SAN 444

.SAN...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.....SEE LAXSPSSAN.
       MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT......SEE LAXMWSSAN.
       WINTER STORM WARNING..........SEE LAXWSWSAN
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.......SEE LAXWSWSAN.
       WINTER STORM WATCH............SEE LAXWSWSAN.

ATKIN