Alert archive / Virginia / Prince William County / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Prince William County, Virginia, 2011
57 severe thunderstorm warnings in 2011. An alert counts here when it covered this county. The archive of severe thunderstorm warnings reaches back to 1986.
Prince William County and its neighbors
Each county as a circle sized by its count in 2011. Tap one for its archive.
- Severe Thunderstorm Warnings
- 57
- Busiest month
- April12 severe thunderstorm warnings
- Busiest day
- April 16, 20115 severe thunderstorm warnings
Over time
By month
Warning verification
How often warnings here had a storm report inside them, and how much warning the reports had.
38 of 57 severe thunderstorm warnings covering Prince William County in 2011 had a qualifying storm report inside them; 16 of 26 hail, wind and damage reports fell inside a warning, on average 14 minutes after it went out.
Prince William County, 2011
| Warnings | With a report | False alarm ratio | Reports | Inside a warning | Mean lead time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe thunderstorm warnings | 57 | 38 | 33% | 26 | 62% | 14 min |
Each office's whole area, 2011
| Warnings | With a report | False alarm ratio | Reports | Inside a warning | Mean lead time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWS Baltimore/Washington: severe thunderstorm warnings | 440 | 335 | 24% | 963 | 78% | 18 min |
An office's figures cover every county it serves, including across state lines.
Verified by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow, which matches each storm-based warning with the local storm reports inside its polygon while it was in force, within 15 km of its edge: a tornado warning counts as verified on a tornado report, a severe thunderstorm warning on hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more, or wind damage, a flash flood warning on a flash flood report. The false alarm ratio is the share of warnings with no such report; "inside a warning" is the probability of detection, the share of reports that fell inside one; lead time runs from the warning's issue to each report inside it, counting zero for a report that came first. A warning with no report is not proof nothing happened: reports come from spotters, the public and damage surveys, and are thin where few people live.
The alerts
Every alert, in the order issued. Times are local, Eastern Time. Each opens its own page with the text, the map, the radar and the sounding.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 6:10 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 65 min |
| Mar 21, 6:48 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 45 min |
| Apr 2, 3:17 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 43 min |
| Apr 5, 3:04 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 56 min |
| Apr 5, 4:29 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 51 min |
| Apr 16, 4:21 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 39 min |
| Apr 16, 4:37 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 38 min |
| Apr 16, 4:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 46 min |
| Apr 16, 5:36 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 39 min |
| Apr 16, 7:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 44 min |
| Apr 24, 8:06 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 39 min |
| Apr 27, 6:17 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 43 min |
| Apr 27, 7:00 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 32 min |
| Apr 27, 8:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 36 min |
| May 16, 7:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 51 min |
| May 17, 3:22 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 38 min |
| May 18, 5:56 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 49 min |
| May 18, 6:44 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 46 min |
| May 27, 6:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 41 min |
| May 27, 6:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 35 min |
| May 27, 6:58 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 32 min |
| May 27, 7:06 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 39 min |
| May 27, 7:21 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 39 min |
| Jun 1, 5:32 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 42 min |
| Jun 9, 6:44 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 46 min |
| Jun 9, 11:13 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 32 min |
| Jun 9, 11:20 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 40 min |
| Jun 11, 2:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 39 min |
| Jun 12, 4:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 42 min |
| Jun 12, 5:00 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 45 min |
| Jun 16, 8:48 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 42 min |
| Jun 28, 6:05 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 25 min |
| Jun 28, 6:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 26 min |
| Jul 3, 6:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 32 min |
| Jul 3, 7:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 40 min |
| Jul 3, 7:43 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 62 min |
| Jul 3, 8:15 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 48 min |
| Jul 8, 4:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 35 min |
| Jul 8, 5:10 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 50 min |
| Jul 11, 7:57 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 48 min |
| Jul 11, 8:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 26 min |
| Jul 11, 8:46 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 44 min |
| Jul 13, 2:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 50 min |
| Jul 13, 3:13 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 47 min |
| Jul 13, 3:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 41 min |
| Aug 1, 7:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 42 min |
| Aug 3, 6:01 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 31 min |
| Aug 13, 3:17 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 30 min |
| Aug 18, 7:17 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 43 min |
| Aug 18, 11:46 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 44 min |
| Aug 19, 12:10 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 31 min |
| Aug 19, 6:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 47 min |
| Aug 21, 1:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 48 min |
| Aug 21, 1:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 51 min |
| Aug 21, 1:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 40 min |
| Aug 21, 1:58 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 47 min |
| Aug 21, 2:05 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 40 min |
The busiest days
Days with the most alerts issued, by UTC date.
Nearby
Alerts in force nowTornadoes on recordForecastThe radar archive20102012
Sources
National Weather Service watches, warnings, advisories and statements from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's VTEC archive, which reconstructs tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood and marine warnings back to 1986 from the NWS text archive. Storm Prediction Center watches and mesoscale discussions from SPC's archive through the Mesonet. County centers from the US Census Bureau. Warning verification from the Mesonet's Cow. Rebuilt daily.