Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1247 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH
COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SGFNT CHGS MADE TO DETAILS OF TDA...BUT GENL SYNOPTIC PICTURE RMNS
SAME FROM PREV FCST. VERY UNSTABLE AMS RMNS IN PLACE ACRS FCST
AREA THIS MRNG WHILE REMNANT MCV MOVG EWD ACRS APLCNS ATTM. PULSY
CNVCTN ON HIGH TERRAIN SHOWING INCRG TREND IN INTENSITY. WITH
STRONG INSOLATION AND CONTD DAYTIME HEATING...TSTMS XPCD TO INCR
IN CVRG AND INTENSITY AS THIS VORTEX MOVES EWD ACRS FCST AREA.

STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY WILL MOVE SLGTLY NWD AS LOW PRESSURE IN LEE
OF MTNS INDUCES SLGT SLY FLOW...BUT LMTD NWD MVMT XPCD. MODIFIED
12Z KIAD SOUNDING SHOWS IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG CAPE WITH LMTD
CINH. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS MARGINAL...THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR
PULSE/MULTICELL TSTMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL AND ISOLD DMGG
WIND GUSTS.

TSTMS SHUD DECR IN CVRG LATE TNGT...BUT ISOLD SHWRS AND STORMS MAY
CONT THRU LATE TNGT. CDFNT APRCHS ON SUN. TIMING HAS BCM SLGTLY
MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN SLOWING TREND IN LATEST MODEL RUNS. WILL
EVALUATE FURTHER ON TIMING. SLOWER PASSAGE OF CDFNT SUN AFTN WOULD
YIELD A GREATER SVR THREAT FOR FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MUCH WELCOME RESPITE TO THE HEAT OF THIS WEEK LIES AHEAD.

AFTR THAT HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRINGING A MUCH DESERVED STRETCH OF
COOLER AND DRIER WX. LOWS SUN NGT FM M50S W TO MU60S IN THE CITIES
AND ALONG THE BAY. MON LOOKS TO BE A VERY PLSNT DAY...HIGHS TO
RANGE FM A70 FAR W TO L80S IN THE CITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO CONT ACROSS THE CWA THRU WED. AN UPR LVL SHORTWV
LOOKS TO TRACK ACORSS THE ERN GRT LAKES ON THU...W/ THE PSBLTY OF
A FNTL PASSAGE THRU THE MID ATLC. BEST CHC FOR PCPN/TSTSMS WL BE
THU NGT.

UPR LVL PATTERN DOES NOT SHOW ANY RETURN TO HIGH HEAT THRU NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
T-STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

IN THE XTND THERE COULD BE A CHC OF CNVCTN DURG THE 1ST PART OF
THE DAY SUNDAY AT THE THREE MAJOR AIRPORTS. AT CHO THIS CHC COULD
LINGER INTO MID AFTN. AFTR THAT VFR CONDS THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME T-STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS/TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. AFTER THE BOUNDARY MOVES
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT...LIGHT NWLY WINDS WILL PICK UP. PERIODS OF NEAR
SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURG THE DAY MON AND TUE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVR THE WATERS WED KEEPING WINDS LGT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE WERE CONCERNED EARLIER IN THE NGT WHEN A PD OF HVY RAIN
OCCCURED IN NRN HIGHLAND/SRN PENDLETON...AND ISSUED A FLSH FLD
WRNG DUE TO THIS. THE S BRANCH OF THE PTMC AT FRANKLIN WV DID A
RAPID RISE...BUT AT 4 AM BEGAN TO FALL. FFW WAS ALLOWED TO XPIRE
AT 345 AM.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...KRAMAR
PREV DISCUSSION...LASORSA/WOODY!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
121000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
1007 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION ALSO MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-121000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
1007 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION ALSO MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY.

KRAMAR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
134 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

VAZ026-038-039-050-051-111800-
ORANGE VA-GREENE VA-MADISON VA-CULPEPER VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-
134 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT ORANGE...GREENE...MADISON...CULPEPER
AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES...

AT 134 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HANEYTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE STANARDSVILLE.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY FOR YOUR SAFETY. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STORM MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE MILE
AND MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3812 7819 3818 7834 3820 7842 3826 7862
      3835 7856 3836 7809
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 279DEG 26KT 3829 7852

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
144 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

VAZ026-029-038>040-111815-
GREENE VA-MADISON VA-PAGE VA-RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-
144 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF GREENE...MADISON...
PAGE...RAPPAHANNOCK AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES...

AT 143 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
EAST OF SHENANDOAH...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE DEVELOPING STORM INCLUDE STANLEY AND
BIG MEADOWS.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING...AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. REMAIN ALERT...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN BRING DOWN LARGE TREE BRANCHES.
TAKE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY FOR
YOUR SAFETY. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STORM MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE MILE AND MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3863 7868 3861 7864 3864 7861 3864 7818
      3853 7817 3852 7819 3853 7823 3848 7816
      3841 7816 3840 7868
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 264DEG 25KT 3850 7855

JE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
202 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

VAZ037-111830-
ALBEMARLE VA-
202 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ALBEMARLE COUNTY...

AT 159 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
NORTH OF WHITE HALL...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR WHITE HALL MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST
AROUND 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE FREE UNION...IVY...CROZET AND THE CITY OF
CHARLOTTESVILLE.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY FOR YOUR SAFETY. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE
MILE AND MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3788 7843 3809 7878 3824 7872 3825 7867
      3827 7865 3814 7824 3812 7821
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 281DEG 15KT 3816 7865

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

VAZ029-038>040-050-051-111845-
ORANGE VA-GREENE VA-MADISON VA-CULPEPER VA-PAGE VA-RAPPAHANNOCK VA-
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ORANGE...GREENE...MADISON...
CULPEPER...PAGE AND RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTIES...

AT 206 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF NETHERS TO 2 MILES NORTH OF
WOLFTOWN TO AMICUS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE MADISON.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY FOR YOUR SAFETY. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE
MILE AND MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 7860 3838 7846 3865 7842 3860 7802
      3840 7807 3816 7827
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 268DEG 13KT 3859 7831 3839 7834
          3824 7848

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
229 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

VAZ030-040-051-501-502-111900-
CULPEPER VA-RAPPAHANNOCK VA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER VA-WARREN VA-
SOUTHERN FAUQUIER VA-
229 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT CULPEPER...RAPPAHANNOCK...NORTHERN
FAUQUIER...WARREN AND SOUTHERN FAUQUIER COUNTIES...

AT 230 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM LINDEN TO FLINT HILL TO FIVE FORKS...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE HUME...DELAPLANE...THE PLAINS AND
WARRENTON.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING...AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. REMAIN ALERT...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY FOR YOUR SAFETY. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE
MILE AND MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 7770 3888 7768 3888 7771 3884 7772
      3878 7768 3857 7779 3863 7827 3877 7820
      3895 7817
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 263DEG 17KT 3890 7809 3879 7808
          3864 7815