Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWFA AT THIS TIME.
LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE METRO AREAS DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 8 PM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER UNTIL THE FROPA
LATER THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING. A FEW UPSLOPE
RA/SN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT.

STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREA.
OUTSIDE THE WIND ADVISORY...FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 30 KT HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT.

NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH ANTICIPATED EITHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CWFA ON SUNDAY. PRECIP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW...AND DO HAVE NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MASON DIXON
LINE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. EVEN IF WINDS DO NOT REACH
CRITERIA...WITH THE SATURATED SOILS...DOWNED TREES WILL BE AN
ISSUE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER
SOUTH. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND IT WILL TURN WARM AND BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SUB VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOW
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE HEAVY RAIN. VERY GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS...GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE. STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KT LIKELY. AFTER THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED
TOMORROW...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SE
FLOW WILL CONTNUE UNTIL AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
FREQUEST GUSTS TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED. BEHIND
THE FROPA LATE THIS EVENING...WINDS MAY DIP BELOW GALE FORCE FOR A
FEW HOURS BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE
FORCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE WARRANTED FOR THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. REPORTS OF FLOODING CONTINUE
TO COME INTO THE OFFICE THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD VALUES BETWEEN
ONE AND THREE INCHES LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TIDE HASN'T EVEN OCCURED IN MANY PLACES...AND EXPECT WATER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE CREEPING UPWARDS. HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE TIDAL POTOMAC AND WESTERN SHORE OF THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY. DO THINK WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ELEVEATED THROUGH THE EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DCZ001.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-501-
     502.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ003-004-501-
     502.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ007-011-
     013-014-016>018.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ004>007-
     009>011.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-050-051-503-504.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-501-503-504.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ052>055-
     057.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ042-
     052>056-501-502.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-501>506.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
319 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
171000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
319 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC
AND WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER
LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE ANTICIPATED. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST HAZARD MESSAGE /CFWLWX/ FOR DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HEAVY RAIN IN THESE STORMS ALSO COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...BUT A PERIOD OF GALE
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-171000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
319 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SEE
/WBCNPWLWX/FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND
RIVER FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL
COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOR THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HAZARD MESSAGE /FFALWX/ FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND ALONG
THE MASON DIXON LINE TOMORROW.

HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY STORMS COULD LEAD TO MINOR RIVER
FLOODING ON SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
413 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

MDZ003>005-009-010-VAZ031-042-053-501-WVZ053-162145-
WASHINGTON MD-CARROLL MD-FREDERICK MD-HOWARD MD-MONTGOMERY MD-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER VA-CLARKE VA-LOUDOUN VA-JEFFERSON WV-FAIRFAX VA-
413 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT WASHINGTON...CARROLL...FREDERICK...
HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN FAUQUIER...CLARKE...LOUDOUN...
JEFFERSON AND FAIRFAX COUNTIES...

AT 413 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM FORT RITCHIE TO ARNOLDTOWN TO 3 MILES EAST OF
RIPPON TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF UPPERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BLUEMONT...KNOXVILLE...MIDDLEBURG...ST.
LOUIS...NEERSVILLE...LEWISTOWN...LINCOLN...GRACEHAM...UTICA AND
ROSEMONT.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING...AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. REMAIN ALERT...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN BRING DOWN LARGE TREE BRANCHES.
TAKE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 7680 3952 7710 3908 7715 3884 7802
      3919 7794 3938 7767 3973 7754 3973 7681
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 243DEG 27KT 3970 7747 3942 7756
          3923 7784 3897 7788

HTS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
420 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STUARTS DRAFT           38.03N  79.02W
04/16/2011                   AUGUSTA            VA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A COUPLE OF BUILDINGS COLLAPSED NEAR STUARTS DRAFT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100320

BJL