Alert archive / Virginia / Tornado Watches in 2011
Tornado Watch 151
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Apr 16, 2011, 1:29 PM EDT for 14 counties in Maryland; 34 counties in Virginia; 8 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 8 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 16, 2011, 1:29 PM EDT (17:29 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 16, 2011, 9:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 0.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 56 counties
Allegany County, MD, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Washington County, MD, Albemarle County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Greene County, VA, Highland County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Madison County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Morgan County, WV, Pendleton County, WV
The radar
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 40%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 40%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 30%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 5%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 70%
Warnings issued inside it
30 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 1:38 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Augusta, Greene, Madison, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah and 2 more | 52 min |
| Apr 16, 1:48 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Augusta, Greene, Page, Rockingham, City of Harrisonburg, City of Staunton | 27 min |
| Apr 16, 1:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Albemarle, Augusta, Nelson, City of Staunton, City of Waynesboro | 51 min |
| Apr 16, 1:59 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | Albemarle, Augusta, Culpeper, Greene, Madison, Nelson and 7 more | 3 hr |
| Apr 16, 2:04 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Frederick, Rockingham, Shenandoah | 41 min |
| Apr 16, 2:58 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Washington | 47 min |
| Apr 16, 3:01 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Albemarle, Augusta, Greene, Madison, Orange, Page and 3 more | 44 min |
| Apr 16, 3:04 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Albemarle, Augusta, Greene, Nelson, City of Charlottesville | 41 min |
| Apr 16, 3:16 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | Clarke, Fauquier, Frederick, Page, Rappahannock, Shenandoah and 2 more | 5 hr |
| Apr 16, 3:26 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Albemarle, Greene, Madison, Orange, City of Charlottesville | 49 min |
| Apr 16, 3:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Grant, Hampshire, Hardy, Pendleton | 41 min |
| Apr 16, 3:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Albemarle, Culpeper, Fauquier, Greene, Loudoun, Madison and 3 more | 50 min |
| Apr 16, 3:43 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Rockingham, Shenandoah | 32 min |
| Apr 16, 3:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Rockingham | 36 min |
| Apr 16, 4:08 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Culpeper, Fauquier, Madison, Orange, Prince William, Rappahannock | 52 min |
| Apr 16, 4:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Allegany, Washington | 41 min |
| Apr 16, 4:21 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Frederick, Montgomery | 39 min |
| Apr 16, 4:37 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Culpeper, Fauquier, Orange, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford and 1 more | 38 min |
| Apr 16, 4:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery, Prince George's | 46 min |
| Apr 16, 5:36 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Fairfax, Fauquier, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, City of Fairfax and 2 more | 39 min |
| Apr 16, 6:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Washington | 40 min |
| Apr 16, 7:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Frederick, Montgomery, Washington | 44 min |
| Apr 16, 7:14 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Frederick, Montgomery | 31 min |
| Apr 16, 7:38 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery and 1 more | 52 min |
| Apr 16, 7:42 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Culpeper, Fauquier, Madison, Orange | 48 min |
| Apr 16, 7:46 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Carroll, Frederick | 26 min |
| Apr 16, 7:50 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Culpeper, Madison, Orange | 24 min |
| Apr 16, 8:02 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Baltimore, Carroll | 28 min |
| Apr 16, 8:18 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Baltimore, Carroll, Harford | 42 min |
| Apr 16, 8:56 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | Baltimore, City of Baltimore | 94 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 50 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 533 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 56 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 473 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 699 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
039
WWUS20 KWNS 161729
SEL1
SPC WW 161729
DCZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-CWZ000-170100-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MARYLAND
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MARTINSBURG WEST VIRGINIA TO 25 MILES WEST OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 150...
DISCUSSION...A STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE WW AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ARE RESULTING IN THE NWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
STORMS TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY SURFACE-BASED. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
WIND FIELD IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED BOWING
AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21050.
...MEADSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 12:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anne Arundel, Calvert, Caroline, Charles, Dorchester, Frederick and 10 more | 113 min |
| Apr 16, 4:29 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil and 13 more | 31 min |
| Apr 16, 4:41 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Caroline, Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne's, Talbot | 6 hr |
| Apr 16, 6:38 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 13 more | 97 min |
| Apr 16, 10:39 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brunswick, Charles City, Chesterfield, Dinwiddie, Gloucester, Greensville and 25 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 16, 12:02 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Amelia, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Brunswick, Buckingham and 62 more | 11 hr |
| Apr 16, 2:28 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Amelia, Brunswick, Charles City, Charlotte, Chesterfield, Cumberland and 43 more | 92 min |
| Apr 16, 4:49 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brunswick, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Dinwiddie, Essex and 33 more | 86 min |
| Apr 16, 6:59 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Greensville, Isle of Wight, Prince George, Southampton, Surry, Sussex and 9 more | 91 min |
| Apr 16, 10:43 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barbour, Braxton, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Lewis and 13 more | 62 min |
| Apr 16, 1:34 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brooke, Hancock, Marshall, Ohio, Wetzel | 116 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Virginia, 2011Tornado Watches in Maryland, 2011Tornado Watches in West Virginia, 2011Every tornado watch in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.