Alert archive / Virginia / Tornado Watches in 2011

Tornado Watch 151

April 16, 201114 counties in Maryland; 34 counties in Virginia; 8 counties in West Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Apr 16, 2011, 1:29 PM EDT for 14 counties in Maryland; 34 counties in Virginia; 8 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 16, 2011, 1:29 PM EDT (17:29 UTC)
Expired
Apr 16, 2011, 9:00 PM EDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 56 counties

Allegany County, MD, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Washington County, MD, Albemarle County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Greene County, VA, Highland County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Madison County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Morgan County, WV, Pendleton County, WV

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

30 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 16, 1:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAugusta, Greene, Madison, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah and 2 more52 min
Apr 16, 1:48 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXAugusta, Greene, Page, Rockingham, City of Harrisonburg, City of Staunton27 min
Apr 16, 1:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAlbemarle, Augusta, Nelson, City of Staunton, City of Waynesboro51 min
Apr 16, 1:59 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXAlbemarle, Augusta, Culpeper, Greene, Madison, Nelson and 7 more3 hr
Apr 16, 2:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFrederick, Rockingham, Shenandoah41 min
Apr 16, 2:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXWashington47 min
Apr 16, 3:01 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXAlbemarle, Augusta, Greene, Madison, Orange, Page and 3 more44 min
Apr 16, 3:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAlbemarle, Augusta, Greene, Nelson, City of Charlottesville41 min
Apr 16, 3:16 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXClarke, Fauquier, Frederick, Page, Rappahannock, Shenandoah and 2 more5 hr
Apr 16, 3:26 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXAlbemarle, Greene, Madison, Orange, City of Charlottesville49 min
Apr 16, 3:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXGrant, Hampshire, Hardy, Pendleton41 min
Apr 16, 3:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAlbemarle, Culpeper, Fauquier, Greene, Loudoun, Madison and 3 more50 min
Apr 16, 3:43 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXRockingham, Shenandoah32 min
Apr 16, 3:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXRockingham36 min
Apr 16, 4:08 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXCulpeper, Fauquier, Madison, Orange, Prince William, Rappahannock52 min
Apr 16, 4:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAllegany, Washington41 min
Apr 16, 4:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFrederick, Montgomery39 min
Apr 16, 4:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCulpeper, Fauquier, Orange, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford and 1 more38 min
Apr 16, 4:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery, Prince George's46 min
Apr 16, 5:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFairfax, Fauquier, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, City of Fairfax and 2 more39 min
Apr 16, 6:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXWashington40 min
Apr 16, 7:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFrederick, Montgomery, Washington44 min
Apr 16, 7:14 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXFrederick, Montgomery31 min
Apr 16, 7:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery and 1 more52 min
Apr 16, 7:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCulpeper, Fauquier, Madison, Orange48 min
Apr 16, 7:46 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXCarroll, Frederick26 min
Apr 16, 7:50 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXCulpeper, Madison, Orange24 min
Apr 16, 8:02 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXBaltimore, Carroll28 min
Apr 16, 8:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Carroll, Harford42 min
Apr 16, 8:56 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXBaltimore, City of Baltimore94 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 50 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2011-04-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2011-04-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 473 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
533 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
473 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
699 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

039 
WWUS20 KWNS 161729
SEL1
SPC WW 161729
DCZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-CWZ000-170100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
       MARYLAND
       NORTHERN VIRGINIA
       EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
       COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MARTINSBURG WEST VIRGINIA TO 25 MILES WEST OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 150...

DISCUSSION...A STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE WW AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ARE RESULTING IN THE NWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
STORMS TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY SURFACE-BASED.  GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
WIND FIELD IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED BOWING
AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21050.


...MEAD

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 16, 12:52 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Calvert, Caroline, Charles, Dorchester, Frederick and 10 more113 min
Apr 16, 4:29 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil and 13 more31 min
Apr 16, 4:41 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCCaroline, Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne's, Talbot6 hr
Apr 16, 6:38 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 13 more97 min
Apr 16, 10:39 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrunswick, Charles City, Chesterfield, Dinwiddie, Gloucester, Greensville and 25 more2 hr
Apr 16, 12:02 PM EDTTornado Watch PDSSPCAmelia, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Brunswick, Buckingham and 62 more11 hr
Apr 16, 2:28 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAmelia, Brunswick, Charles City, Charlotte, Chesterfield, Cumberland and 43 more92 min
Apr 16, 4:49 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrunswick, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Dinwiddie, Essex and 33 more86 min
Apr 16, 6:59 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGreensville, Isle of Wight, Prince George, Southampton, Surry, Sussex and 9 more91 min
Apr 16, 10:43 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Braxton, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Lewis and 13 more62 min
Apr 16, 1:34 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooke, Hancock, Marshall, Ohio, Wetzel116 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Virginia, 2011Tornado Watches in Maryland, 2011Tornado Watches in West Virginia, 2011Every tornado watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.