Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Tornado Watches in 2011

Tornado Watch 152

April 16, 201119 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Apr 16, 2011, 4:41 PM EDT for 19 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 16, 2011, 4:41 PM EDT (20:41 UTC)
Expired
Apr 16, 2011, 10:35 PM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Berks County, PA, Blair County, PA, Chester County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Perry County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, York County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

14 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 16, 4:50 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPAdams5 hr
Apr 16, 4:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCumberland, Franklin, Fulton, Perry37 min
Apr 16, 5:24 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPCumberland5 hr
Apr 16, 5:38 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPDauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, York7 hr
Apr 16, 5:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams, Cumberland, Franklin46 min
Apr 16, 6:04 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPFranklin5 hr
Apr 16, 7:27 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPSchuylkill5 hr
Apr 16, 7:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams, Dauphin, Lancaster, York43 min
Apr 16, 8:05 PM EDTTornado WarningCTPAdams, York25 min
Apr 16, 8:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPDauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, York65 min
Apr 16, 8:29 PM EDTTornado WarningCTPLancaster, York31 min
Apr 16, 8:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPSchuylkill44 min
Apr 16, 9:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIChester64 min
Apr 16, 10:13 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPAdams2 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 159 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2011-04-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2011-04-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 473 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
533 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
473 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
699 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

863 
WWUS20 KWNS 162041
SEL2
SPC WW 162041
DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-CWZ000-170300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       DELAWARE
       EASTERN MARYLAND
       SOUTHWEST NEW JERSEY
       SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
       COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 440 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF ALTOONA
PENNSYLVANIA TO 55 MILES EAST OF HARRISBURG PENNSYLVANIA.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 150...WW 151...

DISCUSSION...STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING OVER ERN PA/NJ ARE
INDICATIVE OF INTENSE LOW-LEVEL WAA AND THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER WRN VA /N OF ROA/.  WHILE
AMBIENT AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
EXTREME VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE A RISK FOR BOWING AND/OR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
300. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20045.


...MEAD

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 16, 10:43 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFayette, Greene, Washington62 min
Apr 16, 1:34 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Crawford, Lawrence, Mercer, Washington116 min
Apr 16, 2:05 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Bedford, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Fulton and 6 more55 min
Apr 16, 4:29 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Chester, Franklin, Fulton, Lancaster, York31 min
Apr 16, 6:38 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Berks, Chester, Cumberland, Dauphin, Delaware and 13 more97 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Pennsylvania, 2011Every tornado watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.