Flash Flood Warning 96, NWS Tucson, AZ

068 
WGUS75 KTWC 060151
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
651 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

AZC009-011-060345-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0096.000000T0000Z-260806T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Graham AZ-Greenlee AZ-
651 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL GRAHAM AND WEST CENTRAL GREENLEE COUNTIES...

At 651 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 0.8 and 1.8 inches of rain have
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Mainly rural areas of East Central Graham and West Central Greenlee
  Counties.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Gila River, Johnny Creek, Bonita Creek, Dry Creek and Eagle Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3294 10940 3286 10949 3301 10963 3308 10944
      3295 10938

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

KJS

524 
WGUS75 KTWC 060206
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
706 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

AZC009-011-060345-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0096.000000T0000Z-260806T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Graham AZ-Greenlee AZ-
706 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL GRAHAM AND WEST CENTRAL GREENLEE COUNTIES...

At 706 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have
fallen. Bonito Creek Stream Gauge has risen to 7.7 feet so far.
Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Mainly rural areas of East Central Graham and West Central Greenlee
  Counties.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Gila River, Johnny Creek, Bonita Creek, Dry Creek and Eagle Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3294 10940 3286 10949 3301 10963 3308 10944
      3295 10938

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

KJS

588 
WGUS75 KTWC 060345
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
845 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

AZC009-011-060355-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0096.000000T0000Z-260806T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Graham AZ-Greenlee AZ-
845 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR EAST CENTRAL GRAHAM AND WEST
CENTRAL GREENLEE COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3294 10940 3286 10949 3301 10963 3308 10944
      3295 10938

$$

KJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
227 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Expect thunderstorm activity each afternoon and
evening this week with day to day variability. Thunderstorms may
produce severe outflow winds with areas of blowing dust, as
well as locally heavy rainfall with an isolated flash flooding
risk. High temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal
through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Current satellite shows a cumulus field over
central/eastern Pima County, Santa Cruz County, and parts of
Cochise and Graham Counties with an isolated thunderstorm over
northern Greenlee County and the Santa Ritas. This likely means
there is very little CIN left and with more surface heating the
atmosphere will be ready for convection.

All the ingredients are in place with seasonable PWAT values,
MLCAPE of 800-1800 J/kg, and effective bulk shear 20-30 kts.
Storms will continue to develop over the White Mountains early
this afternoon and over the Sky Islands by mid-afternoon. Storms
then move into the lower elevations and progress westward
through the late afternoon and evening. Storms could reach
Tucson as early as 5 PM, but between 6-8 PM looks more likely.
Storms will be capable of strong to severe wind gusts with an
isolated storm or two producing a 70+ mph wind gusts. Model
soundings show a dry nose just above 500 mb that could enhance
downdrafts and the 05/12Z HREF has a 30 percent chance for 50 kt
winds within 40 km of a point for central/eastern Pima County
and southern Pinal County this evening. This is being driven by
a couple HREF members that shows storms over Tucson that produce
a strong outflow that moves through the metro and then into the
Tohono O'odham Nation and Pinal County late this evening. If
this does happen expect blowing dust along I-10 in Pinal County.
Locally heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will also be a
threat from central Pima County eastward late this afternoon
and evening. Most storms will be capable of one inch per hour
rainfall rates with isolated areas approaching 3 inch totals
through midnight. Because of this a Flood Watch has been issued
from 4 PM to 11 PM from central Pima County east to western
Cochise County including the Tucson metro and Santa Cruz County.

Overnight convection looks limited after midnight with maybe a
isolated showers over central or western Pima County. Thursday
thunderstorm coverage and intensity looks to be a little less
than today. 0-6 km shear values will be around 15-20 kts, but
there will be plenty of instability and moisture values will be
seasonable. CAMs show initial development over the White
Mountains and Sky Islands of Cochise and Graham Counties, then
spread into the lower elevations mainly south and east of
Tucson. Storms will be capable of strong outflow winds, with a
few storms possibly producing severe wind gusts. Storms will
also be capable of heavy rainfall with an isolated flash
flooding threat.

Friday into early next week the high remains in a favorable
position for daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms with some
day to day variation in coverage and strength due to the
strength of the high. Friday into Saturday the ridge increases
in strength which will lead to a 2-3 degree warmup compared to
today and Thursday. This could lead to a downturn in monsoon
activity Friday. Saturday ensembles and deterministic models
show an increase in mid-level flow, which could lead to an
increase in storm coverage and intensity even with the stronger
ridge in place. After Saturday heights decrease and
temperatures drop to around normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z.
Scattered thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon
mainly between 05/22Z to 06/05Z with lingering isolated activity
through 06/08Z. Coverage around KTUS more likely 06/01Z-06/06Z
and KOLS/KDUG 05/23Z-06/04Z. Gusty erratic winds of 35-50 kts
possible with any thunderstorm. Cigs will be BKN 8k-12k ft AGL
this afternoon and evening, slowly dissipating overnight. Expect
another round of TSRA Thursday afternoon and evening south and
east of Tucson. Outside of storms SFC winds WLY/NWLY at 8-12
kts with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 kts. SFC winds light
and terrain driven after 06/05Z. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An active monsoon period looks favorable this
week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening, with day to day variability. Today storms
will be capable of heavy rainfall and strong to severe wind
gusts. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from 4 PM to 11 PM.
Minimum relative humidity values will be 20-40 percent into
early next week with temperatures 2-7 degrees above normal.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds terrain driven to around 10 mph
with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ502>504-507-
513>515.

&&

Hardin

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