Flash Flood Warning 112, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
247 AM MST Thu Aug 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
After increased activity yesterday, thunderstorm activity will
be limited to areas east of Tucson today. Thunderstorm activity
each afternoon and evening this week with day to day will have
variability. Thunderstorms may produce strong outflow winds and
locally heavy rainfall with an isolated flash flooding risk.
High temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal through
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Yesterday was an active monsoon day for much of Southeast
Arizona. Current radar shows light rain showers, mainly in Pima
and Santa Cruz counties. With the heavy rainfall yesterday and
early this morning, rivers and creeks will be flowing as the
water channels into them over the coming hours.

The thunderstorm activity yesterday and early this morning will
limit the storm potential to areas east of Tucson in Graham,
Greenlee and Cochise county. The atmosphere will once again need
time to rebound and recover, so thunderstorms that do form will
be limited to strong outflow winds of 30-40 mph and locally
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. Overall, storms will
be less intense and be limited in coverage.

The high pressure continues to remain around the four
corners/northern Arizona into the next week, so daily
thunderstorms with day to day variability continues.

As for temperatures, the Friday and Saturday will increase to 5
to 8 degrees above normal with pockets of Major HeatRisk in the
Western Deserts, Tucson Metro, and Upper Gila River valleys.
This heat won't last long as storms increase in coverage Sunday
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 07/12Z.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected to develop this
afternoon and evening from KTUS eastward. Gusty erratic winds
of 35-50 kts possible with any thunderstorm. Cigs will be BKN
8k-12k ft AGL this afternoon and evening, slowly dissipating
overnight. Expect another round of TSRA Friday afternoon and
evening south and east of Tucson. Outside of storms SFC winds
WLY/NWLY at 8-12 kts with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 kts.
SFC winds light and terrain driven after 07/05Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An active monsoon period looks favorable this week with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
evening, with day to day variability. Today storms will be
capable of locally heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.
Minimum relative humidity values will be 20-40 percent into
early next week with temperatures 2-8 degrees above normal.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds terrain driven to around 10 mph
with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

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