Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS Tucson, AZ

915 
WGUS75 KTWC 060433
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
933 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

AZC019-023-060715-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0103.000000T0000Z-260806T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-Santa Cruz AZ-
933 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA AND NORTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...

At 933 PM MST, trained weather spotters reported thunderstorms
producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches
of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches
are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Trained spotters reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban
         areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Vail, Corona De Tucson and Sonoita.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 10 between mile markers 278 and 289. Route 82 between mile
markers 32 and 38. Route 83 between mile markers 33 and 58.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
Andrada Rd east of Wentworth Rd and Calle Rinconada Rd from Andrada
Rd to Sahuarita Rd.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Fortynine Wash, Santa Cruz River, Sonoita Creek, Cienega Creek, Mud
  Spring Canyon, Babocomari River, Gardner Canyon, Pantano Wash and
  Box Canyon Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3173 11082 3205 11076 3199 11057 3167 11056
      3169 11083

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

KJS

707 
WGUS75 KTWC 060528
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1028 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

AZC023-060538-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FF.W.0103.000000T0000Z-260806T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
1028 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to
heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 100 AM MST for a portion of
Southeast Arizona.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 11079 3205 11076 3199 11057 3177 11061

$$

AZC019-060715-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0103.000000T0000Z-260806T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
1028 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

At 1028 PM MST, trained weather spotters reported thunderstorms
producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.7
inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5
inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Trained spotters reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban
         areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Vail and Corona De Tucson.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 10 between mile markers 278 and 288. Route 83 between mile
markers 41 and 58.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
Andrada Rd east of Wentworth Rd and Calle Rinconada Rd from Andrada
Rd to Sahuarita Rd.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Fortynine Wash, Cienega Creek, Gardner Canyon, Pantano Wash and Box
  Canyon Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 11079 3205 11076 3199 11057 3177 11061

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

KJS

042 
WGUS75 KTWC 060708
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1208 AM MST Thu Aug 6 2026

AZC019-060718-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FF.W.0103.000000T0000Z-260806T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
1208 AM MST Thu Aug 6 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED
WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 100 AM MST for a portion of
Southeast Arizona.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 11079 3205 11076 3199 11057 3177 11061

$$

JRM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
227 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Expect thunderstorm activity each afternoon and
evening this week with day to day variability. Thunderstorms may
produce severe outflow winds with areas of blowing dust, as
well as locally heavy rainfall with an isolated flash flooding
risk. High temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal
through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Current satellite shows a cumulus field over
central/eastern Pima County, Santa Cruz County, and parts of
Cochise and Graham Counties with an isolated thunderstorm over
northern Greenlee County and the Santa Ritas. This likely means
there is very little CIN left and with more surface heating the
atmosphere will be ready for convection.

All the ingredients are in place with seasonable PWAT values,
MLCAPE of 800-1800 J/kg, and effective bulk shear 20-30 kts.
Storms will continue to develop over the White Mountains early
this afternoon and over the Sky Islands by mid-afternoon. Storms
then move into the lower elevations and progress westward
through the late afternoon and evening. Storms could reach
Tucson as early as 5 PM, but between 6-8 PM looks more likely.
Storms will be capable of strong to severe wind gusts with an
isolated storm or two producing a 70+ mph wind gusts. Model
soundings show a dry nose just above 500 mb that could enhance
downdrafts and the 05/12Z HREF has a 30 percent chance for 50 kt
winds within 40 km of a point for central/eastern Pima County
and southern Pinal County this evening. This is being driven by
a couple HREF members that shows storms over Tucson that produce
a strong outflow that moves through the metro and then into the
Tohono O'odham Nation and Pinal County late this evening. If
this does happen expect blowing dust along I-10 in Pinal County.
Locally heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will also be a
threat from central Pima County eastward late this afternoon
and evening. Most storms will be capable of one inch per hour
rainfall rates with isolated areas approaching 3 inch totals
through midnight. Because of this a Flood Watch has been issued
from 4 PM to 11 PM from central Pima County east to western
Cochise County including the Tucson metro and Santa Cruz County.

Overnight convection looks limited after midnight with maybe a
isolated showers over central or western Pima County. Thursday
thunderstorm coverage and intensity looks to be a little less
than today. 0-6 km shear values will be around 15-20 kts, but
there will be plenty of instability and moisture values will be
seasonable. CAMs show initial development over the White
Mountains and Sky Islands of Cochise and Graham Counties, then
spread into the lower elevations mainly south and east of
Tucson. Storms will be capable of strong outflow winds, with a
few storms possibly producing severe wind gusts. Storms will
also be capable of heavy rainfall with an isolated flash
flooding threat.

Friday into early next week the high remains in a favorable
position for daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms with some
day to day variation in coverage and strength due to the
strength of the high. Friday into Saturday the ridge increases
in strength which will lead to a 2-3 degree warmup compared to
today and Thursday. This could lead to a downturn in monsoon
activity Friday. Saturday ensembles and deterministic models
show an increase in mid-level flow, which could lead to an
increase in storm coverage and intensity even with the stronger
ridge in place. After Saturday heights decrease and
temperatures drop to around normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z.
Scattered thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon
mainly between 05/22Z to 06/05Z with lingering isolated activity
through 06/08Z. Coverage around KTUS more likely 06/01Z-06/06Z
and KOLS/KDUG 05/23Z-06/04Z. Gusty erratic winds of 35-50 kts
possible with any thunderstorm. Cigs will be BKN 8k-12k ft AGL
this afternoon and evening, slowly dissipating overnight. Expect
another round of TSRA Thursday afternoon and evening south and
east of Tucson. Outside of storms SFC winds WLY/NWLY at 8-12
kts with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 kts. SFC winds light
and terrain driven after 06/05Z. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An active monsoon period looks favorable this
week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening, with day to day variability. Today storms
will be capable of heavy rainfall and strong to severe wind
gusts. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from 4 PM to 11 PM.
Minimum relative humidity values will be 20-40 percent into
early next week with temperatures 2-7 degrees above normal.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds terrain driven to around 10 mph
with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ502>504-507-
513>515.

&&

Hardin

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
608 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 ENE Safford           32.85N 109.63W
08/05/2026  M69 MPH          Graham             AZ   ASOS

            ASOS station KSAD Safford Regional Airport.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
628 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     Hail             19 E Tombstone          31.76N 109.75W
08/05/2026  M1.00 Inch       Cochise            AZ   County Official

            Quarter size hail via photo.

&&

JRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
642 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Rain             1 WSW Patagonia         31.54N 110.76W
08/05/2026  M0.42 Inch       Santa Cruz         AZ   Mesonet

            0.42 inches of rain in 5 mins. 0.6 inches in
            10 mins.

&&

JRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
656 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     Rain             3 S Thatcher            32.79N 109.77W
08/05/2026  M0.51 Inch       Graham             AZ   Mesonet

            0.51 inches of rain in 10 mins.

&&

JRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
739 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     Hail             6 SE Sierra Vista       31.50N 110.26W
08/05/2026  M1.00 Inch       Cochise            AZ   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reported between dime and
            quarter sized hail.

&&

DVS