Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1126 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1126 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

 - Tornado Watch in effect for far eastern Oklahoma, southeast
   Oklahoma and all of northwest Arkansas until 4 AM.

 - A cold front will bring additional chances of severe weather,
   with large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards,
   overnight tonight into Saturday morning.

 - Continued heavy rainfall potential through Saturday morning
   with a localized flash flooding threat.

 - Dry for Sunday, but additional storm chances return early to
   middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

As of 11 PM Friday, a complex mode of strong and severe
thunderstorms remains ongoing and continues to push across
northeast OK late this evening. These storms earlier produced
multiple tornadoes, including in the Tulsa metro. They have since
moved into far eastern OK, with some additional development
currently occurring in southeast OK, just south of I-40. VAD wind
profile from KINX indicates a stout 45-55 kt low-level jet in
place. The low- level jet, in combination with dewpoints in the
60s and 0-3km SRH values around 400 m2/s2, will maintain the
potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and possibly a
couple of tornadoes beyond midnight tonight for far eastern OK,
southeast OK, and northwest AR. A Tornado Watch now includes all
of northwest AR and west- central AR, in addition to far eastern
OK and southeast OK, until 4 AM Saturday morning.

Focus will eventually shift from the ongoing aforementioned warm
sector storms to strong to severe thunderstorms riding along an
approaching cold front that is currently just north of the OK/KS
border. Hi-res models have been persistent in showing a squall
line of strong and severe storms quickly developing as the front
moves into northeast OK. In fact, radar is already beginning to
show this development. Damaging wind gusts around 60-70 mph will
be the primary hazards with storms along the front, but the
potential for large hail and QLCS tornadoes will also exist along
and just ahead of the frontal boundary. The severe threat is
expected to dwindle fairly quickly behind the front as a much more
stable airmass follows. With that said, want to re-emphasize that
the severe threat will remain intact until the front passes.
Timing of the front is a little fluid, but current thinking is
that the position of the front will be through the Tulsa metro
around or by 3 AM and from Carroll County, AR to Pushmataha
County, OK by daybreak Saturday morning. The front should push
through the entire CWA by 8 or 9 am, with light to moderate rain
and elevated thunderstorms from overrunning lingering across
southeast OK and western AR through much of the daytime before
chances completely shut off. Cloud cover will begin to clear from
northwest-to-southeast Saturday evening.

As far as temperatures go, temperatures will fall into the 40s
and 50s north of the cold front by daybreak Saturday, with low-mid
60s south and east of the front. Temperatures should warm up some
in the afternoon, but with brisk northerly winds (especially in
the morning) and mostly cloudy skies through much of the daytime,
temperatures will likely struggle to get out of the 40s and 50s
for much of the area behind the front. Did lower temperatures down
about 5 degrees from what NBM guidance was producing, and even
these temperatures may be slightly too warm in spots. Winds are
forecast to slowly decrease through the afternoon and into the
evening as surface high pressure moves into the area. The clearing
skies and light winds will cause temperatures to fall close to
seasonal average Saturday night into Sunday morning, with lows
generally in the mid-upper 30s north of I-40 to low-mid 40s south
of I-40.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Southerly winds will return by Sunday afternoon as surface high
pressure scoots east of the area. The southerly winds will promote
a warming trend through Tuesday. Aloft, a mid-level trough will
split off from the main jet stream and close off over Baja CA by
Saturday evening/Sunday morning and will result in quasi-zonal
flow over the area. A weak perturbation, originating from
southwest TX, in the flow will drift over the forecast area and
will cause isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
form, mainly impacted portions of southeast OK and west-central AR
late Sunday night into Monday morning. There could be enough
moisture and instability recovery for a few strong to severe
elevated thunderstorms, especially for far southeast OK Monday
morning, where the most moisture and instability will be. By the
afternoon, instability will rapidly increase above 2000 J/kg in
this particular area. This could be problematic if convection is
able to hang around or redevelop along existing boundaries in the
afternoon. Will need to keep monitoring trends.

The closed-off Baja CA low will move onshore over northwest
Mexico Monday night into Tuesday morning. Medium-range models show
showers and thunderstorms developing well ahead of the
approaching upper-level low on Tuesday morning and into the
afternoon. Instability, moisture, and lifting will all be in place
for additional strong to severe thunderstorm development by
Tuesday afternoon as the upper-level low moves over the High
Plains. Heavy and excessive rainfall is also expected to occur
with this same storm system Tuesday night and into Wednesday
morning. This setup will also continue to be monitored over the
next few days.

Another cold front will push through the area Wednesday
morning/afternoon and the upper-level trough axis will follow push
across the area by Wednesday evening. Much drier air will filter
in behind the trough axis and rain chances will fall off by or
before mid-evening Wednesday. Dry weather will prevail through the
remaining of the forecast period. Temperatures will cool off
nicely behind the front on Wednesday and temperatures will fall
closer to seasonal average, but still above average, Wednesday and
Thursday, with a warm up by next Friday.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue to spread across eastern Oklahoma
and into northwest Arkansas through the overnight periods.
Additional thunderstorm development is likely along the cold front
as it moves from northwest to southeast and through the area by mid
morning tomorrow. CIGs remain mostly VFR, but at least MVFR
conditions will be possible within heavier thunderstorms as well as
behind the cold front across NE OK and NW AR. MVFR cigs could hang
on through much of the morning hours tomorrow across NW AR sites
before clouds begin to scatter out during the afternoon. Winds will
switch from southerly to northwesterly behind the front and become
gusty overnight tonight into early afternoon. Winds should then calm
through the afternoon before becoming light and variable toward the
end of the period.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  56  38  72 /  80  10   0   0
FSM   58  64  43  74 /  90  80  20   0
MLC   50  58  41  73 /  90  50  20   0
BVO   41  56  33  72 /  80   0   0   0
FYV   50  60  36  73 / 100  60  10   0
BYV   55  62  38  70 / 100  70  10   0
MKO   48  56  38  71 /  80  30  10   0
MIO   45  54  35  68 / 100  10   0   0
F10   46  56  38  71 /  80  30  10   0
HHW   57  67  46  71 /  90  90  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
121 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071930-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
121 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to quickly increase in
coverage and intensity during the afternoon and evening hours.
There is a conditional threat for severe weather this afternoon
and tonight, with ongoing uncertainties relating to widespread
cloud cover and somewhat cooler air left behind from earlier
storms. But assuming storms are able to get going, large hail (2+
inches), damaging winds (70+ mph), and tornadoes may all occur.
Areas of heavy rain are likely. Storms will initially focus across
southeast OK, spreading north and east with time. Storm activity
will diminish overnight behind a cold front.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A few storms will persist into Saturday morning before completely
winding down. Sunday appears to be quiet, but another weather
system will bring storms back to the area Monday-Wednesday. Once
again, there will be the potential for severe weather and heavy
rain for much of the area. Temperatures will remain above normal
for the entire week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1216 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

OKZ068>072-070645-
Adair OK-Muskogee OK-Sequoyah OK-Cherokee OK-McIntosh OK-
1216 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH...
NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH...WEST CENTRAL ADAIR...SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE
AND NORTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM CST...

At 1216 AM CST, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
northeast of Warner, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Cookson...                        Tahlequah...
Braggs...                         Warner...
Cherokee Landing State Park...    Greenleaf State Park...
Pumpkin Center...                 Lake Tenkiller State Park...
Keefeton...                       Webbers Falls...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 272 and
281.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for southeastern,
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3542 9532 3549 9545 3599 9498 3580 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 0616Z 228DEG 50KT 3554 9525

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
313 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

OKZ066-067-070-071-070945-
Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Wagoner OK-McIntosh OK-
313 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MCINTOSH...
SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER...EASTERN OKMULGEE AND NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 AM CST...

At 312 AM CST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles east of Bald Hill to 3 miles southwest of
Henryetta. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Dewar...                          Oktaha...
Summit...                         Muskogee...
Pierce...                         Schulter...
Eram...                           Checotah...
Lake Eufaula State Park...        Morris...
Grayson...                        Bryant...
Wainwright...                     Hoffman...
Rentiesville...                   Jamesville...
Hitchita...                       Bald Hill...
Henryetta...                      Council Hill...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 233 and
265.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for southeastern,
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3581 9579 3584 9525 3533 9559 3537 9598
      3538 9598 3538 9609 3540 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 0912Z 268DEG 36KT 3575 9577 3540 9602

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH