Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
539 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1116 AM PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

 - Potentially more widespread severe weather threat with all
   modes possible may develop this afternoon and continue into
   early Saturday morning.

 - Continued heavy rainfall potential through Saturday morning
   with a localized flash flooding threat.

 - Dry for Sunday, but additional storm chances return early to
   middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

An active severe weather day is still anticipated over the local
area from this afternoon through tonight, though details regarding
the corridor of highest threat remain unclear. At this time, the
potential for higher-end severe weather exists, with areas east of
Highway 75 generally favored, but this threat remains highly
conditional. BLUF...residents of eastern Oklahoma and west central
and northwest AR need to remain alert to severe weather potential
and keep up with the forecast as details start to emerge over the
next several hours.

At present, a band of elevated thunderstorms continues along and
west of Highway 75 in northeast OK in a zone of low level warm
advection. Latest CAMs continue to weaken this and lift it north
into early this afternoon, which makes sense, but they have
struggled with the initialization. For the moment these remain
sub-severe, though MUCPAE of around 1000 does support a hail
threat. One signal that has emerged in the data is for additional
discrete cells to develop this afternoon within an axis of
stronger sfc-based instability that spreads north into SE OK and
eventually points north later this afternoon. Early signs of this
could be in developing convection currently across central TX,
which would lift northeast into this increasingly unstable air.
Should these sustain, this might be the best opportunity for more
significant severe weather, especially as low level jet
strengthens this evening. But again, uncertainty remains quite
high.

By late this evening and overnight, a cold front will begin to
push southeast across the local area, with additional convection
forced along this boundary. Still not clear how much the
environment will be impacted by storms today, but frontal storms
should at least pose a limited wind threat overnight, while
becoming more focused over southeast OK and into WC AR with time.
Front may tend to undercut storms which could be a limiting
factor as well.

Finally, worth noting that PWAT values well above climatology
reside over the region, and will support high rainfall rates in
more sustained convection. OVerall rainfall amounts could end up
highly variable, but at least localized 3-4" amounts are feasible
and would result in some flash flooding through tonight,
especially from SE OK through NW AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Saturday near the
frontal zone and continue through much of the morning at least.
Lingering potential for severe weather continues, though most
storms are expected to be elevated, outside potentially areas
near the Red RIver early. Once this finally clears the area, quiet
conditions prevail Saturday night and Sunday, with a light freeze
possible Sunday morning across some of NE OK and NW AR.

Cutoff portion of upper low is forecast to eject into the
southern plains early next week with rain and thunderstorm chances
returning. Some additional flooding and severe potential will
likely exist into mid-week. Pattern is then expected to transition
back to a more settled WNW flow aloft late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will affect NE OK sites over
the next few hours with lowered VSBY and lightning along with some
periods of gusty winds possible in the strongest storms. Storms
will then shift into NW AR sites later this evening while a cold
front drops into NE OK toward the midnight hour. Additional
thunderstorm development is expected along the front as it moves
through the region. overnight into tomorrow morning. The front
will also bring a wind shift from southerly to northwesterly
through the rest of the period. Gusts near 20 knots will likely
follow the front through tomorrow morning. CIGs should generally
remain VFR through a lot of the period outside of some MVFR CIGs
possible with some thunderstorms.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  61  38  72 /  60  10   0   0
FSM   58  70  43  74 /  90  60  10   0
MLC   50  66  41  74 /  80  30  10   0
BVO   41  60  33  72 /  60   0   0   0
FYV   50  67  37  73 /  80  50  10   0
BYV   55  65  38  69 /  90  50  10   0
MKO   48  62  37  71 /  80  20  10   0
MIO   45  58  36  68 /  80   0   0   0
F10   46  60  37  71 /  70  10  10   0
HHW   57  68  46  71 /  90  70  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
121 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071930-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
121 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to quickly increase in
coverage and intensity during the afternoon and evening hours.
There is a conditional threat for severe weather this afternoon
and tonight, with ongoing uncertainties relating to widespread
cloud cover and somewhat cooler air left behind from earlier
storms. But assuming storms are able to get going, large hail (2+
inches), damaging winds (70+ mph), and tornadoes may all occur.
Areas of heavy rain are likely. Storms will initially focus across
southeast OK, spreading north and east with time. Storm activity
will diminish overnight behind a cold front.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A few storms will persist into Saturday morning before completely
winding down. Sunday appears to be quiet, but another weather
system will bring storms back to the area Monday-Wednesday. Once
again, there will be the potential for severe weather and heavy
rain for much of the area. Temperatures will remain above normal
for the entire week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
534 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     Tornado          2 NW Bristow            35.83N 96.39W
03/06/2026                   Creek              OK   Public

            Public report of Tornado northwest side of
            Bristow.

&&

JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
541 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

OKZ058-070000-
Ottawa OK-
541 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM CST...

At 541 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
south of Quapaw, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Ottawa...                         Quapaw...
Miami...                          Baxter Springs...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 308 and 323.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3689 9470 3683 9479 3687 9487 3700 9481
      3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 219DEG 43KT 3688 9478

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
552 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

OKZ056-070015-
Nowata OK-
552 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN NOWATA COUNTY
THROUGH 615 PM CST...

At 552 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
west of South Coffeyville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
South Coffeyville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9557 3692 9572 3696 9579 3700 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 239DEG 34KT 3697 9571

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
601 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

OKZ054>056-070030-
Osage OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
601 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL OSAGE...NORTHERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN NOWATA COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CST...

At 600 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Bartlesville Municipal Airport, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
South Coffeyville...              Wann...
Copan...                          Dewey...
Bartlesville Municipal Airport... Bartlesville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3669 9602 3678 9612 3700 9594 3700 9557
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 221DEG 45KT 3680 9602

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
608 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

OKZ064-070045-
Creek OK-
608 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CREEK COUNTY THROUGH 645
PM CST...

At 608 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 7 miles east of Drumright to 2 miles northwest of
Bristow. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mannford...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 192 and 203.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 9633 3590 9620 3583 9646 3602 9654
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 226DEG 26KT 3601 9646 3586 9642

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
626 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

OKZ060-064-070100-
Tulsa OK-Creek OK-
626 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CREEK AND WEST
CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CST...

At 625 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles south of Keystone State Park to 5 miles
northeast of Bristow. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Kellyville...                     Sapulpa...
Kiefer...                         Sand Springs...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 196 and 218.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 9603 3589 9607 3589 9634 3609 9626
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 249DEG 27KT 3609 9626 3590 9634

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH