Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Tulsa, OK

048 
WGUS74 KTSA 070525
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1125 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

OKC143-145-070535-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260307T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
1125 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN TULSA AND NORTHWESTERN WAGONER COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 9594 3607 9591 3614 9574 3615 9566
      3608 9563 3603 9568 3593 9584

$$

MAB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
539 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1116 AM PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

 - Potentially more widespread severe weather threat with all
   modes possible may develop this afternoon and continue into
   early Saturday morning.

 - Continued heavy rainfall potential through Saturday morning
   with a localized flash flooding threat.

 - Dry for Sunday, but additional storm chances return early to
   middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

An active severe weather day is still anticipated over the local
area from this afternoon through tonight, though details regarding
the corridor of highest threat remain unclear. At this time, the
potential for higher-end severe weather exists, with areas east of
Highway 75 generally favored, but this threat remains highly
conditional. BLUF...residents of eastern Oklahoma and west central
and northwest AR need to remain alert to severe weather potential
and keep up with the forecast as details start to emerge over the
next several hours.

At present, a band of elevated thunderstorms continues along and
west of Highway 75 in northeast OK in a zone of low level warm
advection. Latest CAMs continue to weaken this and lift it north
into early this afternoon, which makes sense, but they have
struggled with the initialization. For the moment these remain
sub-severe, though MUCPAE of around 1000 does support a hail
threat. One signal that has emerged in the data is for additional
discrete cells to develop this afternoon within an axis of
stronger sfc-based instability that spreads north into SE OK and
eventually points north later this afternoon. Early signs of this
could be in developing convection currently across central TX,
which would lift northeast into this increasingly unstable air.
Should these sustain, this might be the best opportunity for more
significant severe weather, especially as low level jet
strengthens this evening. But again, uncertainty remains quite
high.

By late this evening and overnight, a cold front will begin to
push southeast across the local area, with additional convection
forced along this boundary. Still not clear how much the
environment will be impacted by storms today, but frontal storms
should at least pose a limited wind threat overnight, while
becoming more focused over southeast OK and into WC AR with time.
Front may tend to undercut storms which could be a limiting
factor as well.

Finally, worth noting that PWAT values well above climatology
reside over the region, and will support high rainfall rates in
more sustained convection. OVerall rainfall amounts could end up
highly variable, but at least localized 3-4" amounts are feasible
and would result in some flash flooding through tonight,
especially from SE OK through NW AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Saturday near the
frontal zone and continue through much of the morning at least.
Lingering potential for severe weather continues, though most
storms are expected to be elevated, outside potentially areas
near the Red RIver early. Once this finally clears the area, quiet
conditions prevail Saturday night and Sunday, with a light freeze
possible Sunday morning across some of NE OK and NW AR.

Cutoff portion of upper low is forecast to eject into the
southern plains early next week with rain and thunderstorm chances
returning. Some additional flooding and severe potential will
likely exist into mid-week. Pattern is then expected to transition
back to a more settled WNW flow aloft late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will affect NE OK sites over
the next few hours with lowered VSBY and lightning along with some
periods of gusty winds possible in the strongest storms. Storms
will then shift into NW AR sites later this evening while a cold
front drops into NE OK toward the midnight hour. Additional
thunderstorm development is expected along the front as it moves
through the region. overnight into tomorrow morning. The front
will also bring a wind shift from southerly to northwesterly
through the rest of the period. Gusts near 20 knots will likely
follow the front through tomorrow morning. CIGs should generally
remain VFR through a lot of the period outside of some MVFR CIGs
possible with some thunderstorms.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  61  38  72 /  60  10   0   0
FSM   58  70  43  74 /  90  60  10   0
MLC   50  66  41  74 /  80  30  10   0
BVO   41  60  33  72 /  60   0   0   0
FYV   50  67  37  73 /  80  50  10   0
BYV   55  65  38  69 /  90  50  10   0
MKO   48  62  37  71 /  80  20  10   0
MIO   45  58  36  68 /  80   0   0   0
F10   46  60  37  71 /  70  10  10   0
HHW   57  68  46  71 /  90  70  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
121 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071930-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
121 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to quickly increase in
coverage and intensity during the afternoon and evening hours.
There is a conditional threat for severe weather this afternoon
and tonight, with ongoing uncertainties relating to widespread
cloud cover and somewhat cooler air left behind from earlier
storms. But assuming storms are able to get going, large hail (2+
inches), damaging winds (70+ mph), and tornadoes may all occur.
Areas of heavy rain are likely. Storms will initially focus across
southeast OK, spreading north and east with time. Storm activity
will diminish overnight behind a cold front.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A few storms will persist into Saturday morning before completely
winding down. Sunday appears to be quiet, but another weather
system will bring storms back to the area Monday-Wednesday. Once
again, there will be the potential for severe weather and heavy
rain for much of the area. Temperatures will remain above normal
for the entire week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
756 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     Hail             6 SW Sperry             36.25N 96.08W
03/06/2026  E1.00 Inch       Osage              OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

CAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
800 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

OKZ060-064-066-070230-
Tulsa OK-Okmulgee OK-Creek OK-
800 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CREEK...
NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM
CST...

At 759 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
southwest of Mounds. Another strong thunderstorm was 5 miles west of
Beggs. Both storms were moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mounds...                         Hectorville...
Leonard...                        Jenks...
Glenpool...                       Jenks Riverside Airport...
Bixby...                          Liberty...
Kiefer...                         Beggs...
Broken Arrow...                   Tulsa...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 221 and 222.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 9598 3595 9576 3593 9576 3565 9626
      3569 9631
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 223DEG 36KT 3582 9610

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
805 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     Tornado          2 WNW Oneta             36.03N 95.74W
03/06/2026                   Wagoner            OK   Official NWS Obs

            TDS from radar and reports of power flashes
            at 91st S and the Creek Turnpike.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
808 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     Tornado          1 N Beggs               35.76N 96.07W
03/06/2026                   Okmulgee           OK   Official NWS Obs

            Corrects previous tornado report from 1 N
            Beggs. TDS on radar... reports of damage in
            Beggs.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
813 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

OKZ058-070300-
Ottawa OK-
813 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OTTAWA COUNTY THROUGH 900 PM
CST...

At 813 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles east of Welch to 2 miles west of Afton.
Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Picher...                         Cardin...
Peoria...                         Commerce...
Narcissa...                       Ottawa...
Quapaw...                         Miami...
Twin Bridges State Park...        Treece...
Baxter Springs...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 299 and 324.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3686 9462 3670 9500 3692 9500 3700 9493
      3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 223DEG 54KT 3688 9503 3670 9501

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
820 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     Hail             3 E Glenpool            35.96N 95.95W
03/06/2026  E1.00 Inch       Tulsa              OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

CAS