Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
539 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1116 AM PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

 - Potentially more widespread severe weather threat with all
   modes possible may develop this afternoon and continue into
   early Saturday morning.

 - Continued heavy rainfall potential through Saturday morning
   with a localized flash flooding threat.

 - Dry for Sunday, but additional storm chances return early to
   middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

An active severe weather day is still anticipated over the local
area from this afternoon through tonight, though details regarding
the corridor of highest threat remain unclear. At this time, the
potential for higher-end severe weather exists, with areas east of
Highway 75 generally favored, but this threat remains highly
conditional. BLUF...residents of eastern Oklahoma and west central
and northwest AR need to remain alert to severe weather potential
and keep up with the forecast as details start to emerge over the
next several hours.

At present, a band of elevated thunderstorms continues along and
west of Highway 75 in northeast OK in a zone of low level warm
advection. Latest CAMs continue to weaken this and lift it north
into early this afternoon, which makes sense, but they have
struggled with the initialization. For the moment these remain
sub-severe, though MUCPAE of around 1000 does support a hail
threat. One signal that has emerged in the data is for additional
discrete cells to develop this afternoon within an axis of
stronger sfc-based instability that spreads north into SE OK and
eventually points north later this afternoon. Early signs of this
could be in developing convection currently across central TX,
which would lift northeast into this increasingly unstable air.
Should these sustain, this might be the best opportunity for more
significant severe weather, especially as low level jet
strengthens this evening. But again, uncertainty remains quite
high.

By late this evening and overnight, a cold front will begin to
push southeast across the local area, with additional convection
forced along this boundary. Still not clear how much the
environment will be impacted by storms today, but frontal storms
should at least pose a limited wind threat overnight, while
becoming more focused over southeast OK and into WC AR with time.
Front may tend to undercut storms which could be a limiting
factor as well.

Finally, worth noting that PWAT values well above climatology
reside over the region, and will support high rainfall rates in
more sustained convection. OVerall rainfall amounts could end up
highly variable, but at least localized 3-4" amounts are feasible
and would result in some flash flooding through tonight,
especially from SE OK through NW AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Saturday near the
frontal zone and continue through much of the morning at least.
Lingering potential for severe weather continues, though most
storms are expected to be elevated, outside potentially areas
near the Red RIver early. Once this finally clears the area, quiet
conditions prevail Saturday night and Sunday, with a light freeze
possible Sunday morning across some of NE OK and NW AR.

Cutoff portion of upper low is forecast to eject into the
southern plains early next week with rain and thunderstorm chances
returning. Some additional flooding and severe potential will
likely exist into mid-week. Pattern is then expected to transition
back to a more settled WNW flow aloft late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will affect NE OK sites over
the next few hours with lowered VSBY and lightning along with some
periods of gusty winds possible in the strongest storms. Storms
will then shift into NW AR sites later this evening while a cold
front drops into NE OK toward the midnight hour. Additional
thunderstorm development is expected along the front as it moves
through the region. overnight into tomorrow morning. The front
will also bring a wind shift from southerly to northwesterly
through the rest of the period. Gusts near 20 knots will likely
follow the front through tomorrow morning. CIGs should generally
remain VFR through a lot of the period outside of some MVFR CIGs
possible with some thunderstorms.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  61  38  72 /  60  10   0   0
FSM   58  70  43  74 /  90  60  10   0
MLC   50  66  41  74 /  80  30  10   0
BVO   41  60  33  72 /  60   0   0   0
FYV   50  67  37  73 /  80  50  10   0
BYV   55  65  38  69 /  90  50  10   0
MKO   48  62  37  71 /  80  20  10   0
MIO   45  58  36  68 /  80   0   0   0
F10   46  60  37  71 /  70  10  10   0
HHW   57  68  46  71 /  90  70  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
121 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071930-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
121 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to quickly increase in
coverage and intensity during the afternoon and evening hours.
There is a conditional threat for severe weather this afternoon
and tonight, with ongoing uncertainties relating to widespread
cloud cover and somewhat cooler air left behind from earlier
storms. But assuming storms are able to get going, large hail (2+
inches), damaging winds (70+ mph), and tornadoes may all occur.
Areas of heavy rain are likely. Storms will initially focus across
southeast OK, spreading north and east with time. Storm activity
will diminish overnight behind a cold front.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A few storms will persist into Saturday morning before completely
winding down. Sunday appears to be quiet, but another weather
system will bring storms back to the area Monday-Wednesday. Once
again, there will be the potential for severe weather and heavy
rain for much of the area. Temperatures will remain above normal
for the entire week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
820 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     Hail             3 E Glenpool            35.96N 95.95W
03/06/2026  E1.00 Inch       Tulsa              OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

CAS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
834 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     Flash Flood      5 NNE Bixby             36.00N 95.85W
03/06/2026                   Tulsa              OK   Trained Spotter

            Reports of flash flooding at 111th and
            Garnett.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
837 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     Tornado          Inola                   36.15N 95.51W
03/06/2026                   Rogers             OK   Official NWS Obs

            TDS from radar and reports of tornado from
            spotters.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
843 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

OKZ057-058-070315-
Craig OK-Ottawa OK-
843 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CRAIG AND NORTHWESTERN
OTTAWA COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM CST...

At 842 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong
thunderstorms from 4 miles southwest of Welch to 5 miles north of
Vinita, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Picher...                         Cardin...
Commerce...                       Welch...
Bluejacket...                     Pyramid Corners...
Quapaw...                         Treece...
Miami...                          Baxter Springs...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9467 3664 9527 3670 9536 3700 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 224DEG 34KT 3683 9516

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
848 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

OKZ060-061-067-070315-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-Wagoner OK-
848 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...
NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND EAST CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM
CST...

At 848 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
southwest of Catoosa, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Catoosa...                        Verdigris...
Tiawah...                         Inola...
Claremore...                      Tulsa...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 228 and 251.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 9588 3619 9591 3634 9556 3612 9548
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 255DEG 33KT 3615 9583

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
848 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

OKZ057-058-070315-
Craig OK-Ottawa OK-
848 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG AND
SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM CST...

At 848 PM CST, broadcast media reported a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
northeast of White Oak, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Broadcast media.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
White Oak...                      Afton...
Bluejacket...                     Vinita...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 277 and 297.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3683 9504 3669 9488 3667 9494 3667 9500
      3664 9500 3655 9523 3663 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 226DEG 39KT 3664 9521

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH