Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2026

Mesoscale Discussion 77

February 14, 20267 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 14, 2026, 5:15 PM CST for 7 counties in Texas. It was in force for 90 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 14, 2026, 5:15 PM CST (23:15 UTC)
Expired: Feb 14, 2026, 6:45 PM CST
In force: 90 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch: 40%

Counties Aransas County, TX, Bee County, TX, Calhoun County, TX, Goliad County, TX, Refugio County, TX, San Patricio County, TX, Victoria County, TX

The radar

The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brownsville Intl, TX (KBRO), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 281 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 252 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -524 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 621 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 202 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 405 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 13, 6:28 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bailey, Borden, Briscoe, Castro, Cochran, Crosby and 15 more	3 hr
Feb 13, 10:11 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Borden, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Crane and 22 more	3 hr
Feb 14, 3:57 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Eastland and 10 more	2 hr
Feb 14, 10:49 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bandera, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Bosque, Burnet and 37 more	116 min
Feb 14, 2:05 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Angelina, Austin, Brazoria, Brazos, Chambers and 32 more	2 hr
Feb 14, 2:48 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atascosa, Bee, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, DeWitt and 16 more	117 min
Feb 14, 3:49 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Angelina, Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Cherokee, Colorado and 33 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2026 Every mesoscale discussion in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.