Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

806 
WWUS51 KPHI 282226 RRA
SVSPHI

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
626 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NJC019-041-PAC017-095-282236-
/O.EXP.KPHI.SV.W.0257.000000T0000Z-260728T2230Z/
Hunterdon NJ-Warren NJ-Bucks PA-Northampton PA-
626 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HUNTERDON...
SOUTHWESTERN WARREN...NORTH CENTRAL BUCKS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain is still possible with this
thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for southeastern
Pennsylvania.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northwestern New Jersey...and eastern Pennsylvania.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Mount Holly NJ.

LAT...LON 4069 7492 4047 7522 4058 7540 4083 7521
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 270DEG 17KT 4071 7515 

$$

MJL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
426 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Delmarva and
Cape may County NJ until 10PM.

All sections updated

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and flash flooding expected
across many areas tonight.

2. There will be lingering chances for some showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the area for Thursday and Friday
however severe weather and flash flooding is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and flash
flooding expected across many areas tonight.

A very warm and humid airmass across the area remain in place.
Meanwhile, upper short waves will continue across PA/NJ into the
evening. These factors will promote thunderstorms into the
early overnight period. Upper winds will contribute to severe
thunderstorms in many areas with Watches issued for all areas
until 8PM (most areas) and 10PM for south NJ and much of
Delmarva. Damaging winds are the primary threat, but there could
be a few tornadoes as well, especially over southeastern
Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and the Delmarva.

The Flood Watch remains up for the area and several Flash Flood
Warnings have already been issued. When all is said and done,
the updated QPF forecast through Wednesday is around 2 to 4 inches
of rain north of I-78, with 1 to 3 inches elsewhere. As is usual
in summer convective setups, locally higher amounts are possible.
HREF Max in northern New Jersey has highly localized amounts up
to 8" through Wednesday. Have multiple ways to receive any flood
alerts.

As low pressure meanders, another front will come through on
Wednesday, capable of producing some heavy downpours yet again
for the northern third of the region. This will move over some
more urbanized areas in North Jersey that should get a decent
amount of rainfall today, potentially causing more problems.
While mainstem river flooding is not currently forecast, some
smaller creeks and streams within the Passaic and Raritan basins
could see some rises that result in flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There will be lingering chances for some showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the area for Thursday and Friday
however severe weather and flash flooding is not expected.

Low pressure and its associated upper level trough will be slow
to depart to our east through the course of Thursday and
Friday. This will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast, especially for Thursday. For Thursday, forecast
models continue to depict a closed circulation at 500mb slowly
drifting east through New England. Along the backside of this
feature, some showers and thunderstorms are likely to affect the
area with the highest POPs (around 60 percent) for portions of
central and NJ. In terms of timing, it should be mainly focused
around the afternoon into the early evening period coincident
with peak heating. Generally expect highs ranging from the
middle to upper 70s north to the low to mid 80s south.

For Friday, the system will continue to pull farther away so by and
large it should be a partly to mostly sunny day with slightly warm
temperatures compared to Thursday. However still can't rule out some
isolated showers and storms in the afternoon mainly over NJ into
portion of eastern PA (mainly north of Philly). POPs though are only
around 20 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Mostly VFR early this evening but then primarily MVFR/IFR
conditions with occasional showers and thunderstorms. The rains
will diminish 02Z thru 04Z most sites. After that, low clouds
and fog possible thru the night. Low confid overall.

Wednesday... Low clouds may linger across NJ and Delaware early
but then improvement to VFR at most sites by mid/late morning.
Scattered showers/tstms for the afternoon across NJ.DE.
Low/medium confid.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Primarily VFR though an unsettled
pattern will result in some restrictions with showers, low clouds,
and isolated thunderstorms, especially from KPHL on north. The best
chances for any showers/storms will be in the afternoon into the
early evening periods.

Thursday Night through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather.

Sunday...Mainly VFR though with some chances for showers/storms
returning by the afternoon into the evening can't rule out some
restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory are now up for all marine zones as southerly
wind gusts around 25 kt are expected with seas around 5 feet.
The SCA expires at 8 PM for Delaware Bay but continues through
tonight for all ocean zones as 5 foot seas linger. Showers and
thunderstorms expected on the waters through tonight and into
Wednesday morning. Winds and seas diminish Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...No marine headlines are currently
anticipated.

Rip Currents...

Rest of today, southerly winds around 15 to 20 MPH either shore
parallel or onshore and increasing breaking wave heights of 2
to 4 feet will result in a MODERATE risk for rip currents at all
beaches. Other factors contributing to the rip current risk are
the upcoming full moon, and multiple swell groups within the
surf zone. None of the swell groups will have a period longer
than 8 seconds though.

For Wednesday, winds turn more offshore around 10 MPH or less.
Breaking waves will also decrease to around 2 feet or less.
While the Full Moon is on Wednesday, decreasing wave heights,
more offshore flow, and no wave period longer than 8 seconds
should limit the rip current threat. As a result, elected for a
LOW risk for rip currents at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for PAZ060-070-071-
     101>106.
     Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for PAZ054-055-061-062.
NJ...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for NJZ013>020-026-027.
     Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for NJZ001-007>010-012.
DE...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
     431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>455.

&&

DISCUSSION...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/OHara/RCM
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/OHara
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/OHara

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
426 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

MDZ012-015-019-020-292030-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
426 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...TORNADO WATCH 529 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
454 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WNW Sandyston Twp     41.22N 74.86W
07/28/2026                   Sussex             NJ   Public

            Multiple trees down on County Road 560 at
            Dingmans Bridge. Time estimated from radar.

&&

NG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
513 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSE Ross Twp          40.86N 75.34W
07/28/2026                   Monroe             PA   Trained Spotter

            Spotter Network report sent in with pictures
            of multiple large trees snapped or uprooted,
            with broken power poles along Mountain Rd.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

DeSilva

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
517 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     Hail             2 NE Wescosville        40.58N 75.52W
07/28/2026  M0.88 Inch       Lehigh             PA   Trained Spotter

            Spotter Network report of nickel size hail.

&&

DeSilva

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
520 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Bangor                  40.87N 75.21W
07/28/2026                   Northampton        PA   Public

            Tree down in Bangor. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

NG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
527 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     Hail             1 NE Pleasant Valley    40.76N 75.00W
07/28/2026  E0.75 Inch       Warren             NJ   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

&&

DeSilva

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
542 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Spotswood               40.40N 74.39W
07/28/2026                   Middlesex          NJ   Public

            Photos sent of a broken power pole in
            Spotswood NJ on Main Street. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

DeSilva