Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

542 
WWUS51 KPHI 281954
SVSPHI

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
354 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NJC019-027-037-041-282030-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-260728T2030Z/
Hunterdon NJ-Morris NJ-Sussex NJ-Warren NJ-
354 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN HUNTERDON...WEST CENTRAL MORRIS...SOUTHWESTERN SUSSEX
AND WARREN COUNTIES...

At 352 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Oxford, or 15
miles northeast of Easton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 3:48 PM EDT, a trained spotter reported 
         penny sized hail near Pleasant Valley.

IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is 
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Hopatcong, Hackettstown, Wharton, Washington, Blairstown,
Mount Arlington, Stanhope, Netcong, Belvidere, Oxford, Hope, Glen
Gardner, Hampton, Andover, Brass Castle, Greendell, Long Valley,
Great Meadows-Vienna, and Allamuchy-Panther Valley.

This includes Interstate 80 in New Jersey between mile markers 9 and
33.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4090 7456 4070 7491 4078 7512 4081 7510
      4082 7508 4085 7508 4086 7505 4088 7506
      4107 7494
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 218DEG 19KT 4080 7496 

HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Guzzo

127 
WWUS51 KPHI 282006
SVSPHI

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
406 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NJC019-027-037-041-282015-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-260728T2030Z/
Hunterdon NJ-Morris NJ-Sussex NJ-Warren NJ-
406 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN HUNTERDON...WEST
CENTRAL MORRIS...SOUTHWESTERN SUSSEX AND WARREN COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northern and northwestern New Jersey...and eastern Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 4090 7456 4070 7491 4078 7512 4081 7510
      4082 7508 4085 7508 4086 7505 4088 7506
      4107 7494
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 218DEG 22KT 4087 7489 

$$

Guzzo

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
334 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Delmarva and
Cape may County NJ until 10PM.

All sections updated

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding expected across many
areas tonight.

2. There will be lingering chances for some showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the area for Thursday and Friday
however severe weather and flash flooding is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding
expected across many areas tonight.

A very warm and humid airmass across the area remain in place.
Meanwhile, upper short waves will continue across PA/NJ into the
evening. These factors will promote thunderstorms into the early
overnight period. Upper winds will contribute to severe thunderstorms
in many areas with Watches issued for all areas until 8PM (most
areas) and 10PM for south NJ and much of Delmarva. Damaging
winds are the primary threat, but there could be an isolated
tornado across Delware or the eastern shore of Maryland later
today.

The Flood Watch remains up for the area and several Flash Flood
Warnings have already been issued. When all is said and done,
the updated QPF forecast through Wednesday is around 2 to 4 inches
of rain north of I-78, with 1 to 3 inches elsewhere. As is usual
in summer convective setups, locally higher amounts are possible.
HREF Max in northern New Jersey has highly localized amounts up
to 8" through Wednesday. Have multiple ways to receive any flood
alerts.

As low pressure meanders, another front will come through on
Wednesday, capable of producing some heavy downpours yet again
for the northern third of the region. This will move over some
more urbanized areas in North Jersey that should get a decent
amount of rainfall today, potentially causing more problems.
While mainstem river flooding is not currently forecast, some
smaller creeks and streams within the Passaic and Raritan basins
could see some rises that result in flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There will be lingering chances for some showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the area for Thursday and Friday
however severe weather and flash flooding is not expected.

Low pressure and its associated upper level trough will be slow
to depart to our east through the course of Thursday and
Friday. This will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast, especially for Thursday. For Thursday, forecast
models continue to depict a closed circulation at 500mb slowly
drifting east through New England. Along the backside of this
feature, some showers and thunderstorms are likely to affect the
area with the highest POPs (around 60 percent) for portions of
central and NJ. In terms of timing, it should be mainly focused
around the afternoon into the early evening period coincident
with peak heating. Generally expect highs ranging from the
middle to upper 70s north to the low to mid 80s south.

For Friday, the system will continue to pull farther away so by and
large it should be a partly to mostly sunny day with slightly warm
temperatures compared to Thursday. However still can't rule out some
isolated showers and storms in the afternoon mainly over NJ into
portion of eastern PA (mainly north of Philly). POPs though are only
around 20 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Mostly VFR early this evening but then primarily MVFR/IFR
conditions with occasional showers and thunderstorms. The rains
will diminish 02Z thru 04Z most sites. After that, low clouds
and fog possible thru the night. Low confid overall.

Wednesday... Low clouds may linger across NJ and Delaware early
but then improvement to VFR at most sites by mid/late morning.
Scattered showers/tstms for the afternoon across NJ.DE.
Low/medium confid.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Primarily VFR though an unsettled
pattern will result in some restrictions with showers, low clouds,
and isolated thunderstorms, especially from KPHL on north. The best
chances for any showers/storms will be in the afternoon into the
early evening periods.

Thursday Night through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather.

Sunday...Mainly VFR though with some chances for showers/storms
returning by the afternoon into the evening can't rule out some
restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory are now up for all marine zones as southerly
wind gusts around 25 kt are expected with seas around 5 feet.
The SCA expires at 8 PM for Delaware Bay but continues through
tonight for all ocean zones as 5 foot seas linger. Showers and
thunderstorms expected on the waters through tonight and into
Wednesday morning. Winds and seas diminish Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...No marine headlines are currently
anticipated.

Rip Currents...

Rest of today, southerly winds around 15 to 20 MPH either shore
parallel or onshore and increasing breaking wave heights of 2
to 4 feet will result in a MODERATE risk for rip currents at all
beaches. Other factors contributing to the rip current risk are
the upcoming full moon, and multiple swell groups within the
surf zone. None of the swell groups will have a period longer
than 8 seconds though.

For Wednesday, winds turn more offshore around 10 MPH or less.
Breaking waves will also decrease to around 2 feet or less.
While the Full Moon is on Wednesday, decreasing wave heights,
more offshore flow, and no wave period longer than 8 seconds
should limit the rip current threat. As a result, elected for a
LOW risk for rip currents at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for PAZ060-070-071-
     101>106.
     Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for PAZ054-055-061-062.
NJ...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for NJZ013>020-026-027.
     Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for NJZ001-007>010-012.
DE...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
     431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>455.

&&

DISCUSSION...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/OHara
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/OHara
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/OHara

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
506 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

MDZ012-015-019-020-290915-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
506 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Active and unsettled weather is expected through tonight. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will move through bringing heavy rain and
the potential for flash flooding. Some strong to severe thunderstorms
could produce damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes across the
Eastern Shore.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
134 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Lehigh Valley Internati 40.65N 75.44W
07/28/2026  M50 MPH          Lehigh             PA   ASOS

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
149 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Weisenberg Twp          40.61N 75.73W
07/28/2026                   Lehigh             PA   Emergency Mngr

            PA-863 is closed between Loghouse and Danner
            Roads due to multiple utility poles down.
            From PEMA. Time based on radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
301 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Forks Twp               40.73N 75.19W
07/28/2026  M45 MPH          Northampton        PA   Trained Spotter

&&

PF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
327 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     Flash Flood      Washington              40.76N 74.98W
07/28/2026                   Warren             NJ   Trained Spotter

            State Rt. 57 and NJ 31 are flooded.

&&