Severe Thunderstorm Warning 250, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

647 
WWUS51 KPHI 281920
SVSPHI

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NJC023-025-281945-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0250.000000T0000Z-260728T1945Z/
Monmouth NJ-Middlesex NJ-
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL MONMOUTH AND NORTHEASTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTIES...

At 319 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Sayreville, or
near Perth Amboy, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is 
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Edison, Old Bridge, East Brunswick,
Sayreville, Carteret, Matawan, Colonia, Brownville, Society Hill,
North Brunswick Township, Woodbridge, South Plainfield, South River,
Highland Park, Metuchen, Spotswood, Milltown, and Helmetta.

This includes the following highways...
 New Jersey Turnpike between exits 10 and 13.
 Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 6.
 Garden State Parkway between mile markers 119 and 134.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4036 7424 4039 7448 4060 7443 4061 7431
      4059 7428 4060 7421 4056 7421 4055 7425
      4050 7426 4050 7428 4046 7426 4044 7420
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 203DEG 21KT 4045 7433 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Guzzo

965 
WWUS51 KPHI 281942
SVSPHI

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
342 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NJC023-025-281952-
/O.EXP.KPHI.SV.W.0250.000000T0000Z-260728T1945Z/
Monmouth NJ-Middlesex NJ-
342 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MONMOUTH AND
NORTHEASTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northern and central New Jersey.

LAT...LON 4036 7424 4039 7448 4060 7443 4061 7431
      4059 7428 4060 7421 4056 7421 4055 7425
      4050 7426 4050 7428 4046 7426 4044 7420
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 196DEG 25KT 4058 7428 

$$

Guzzo

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
128 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for much of the CWA
until 8PM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A significant system begins to impact the region today with
flash flooding and severe weather all on the table. The
flooding threat will continue into Wednesday. A Flood Watch is
in place for most of New Jersey, all of eastern Pennsylvania,
and northern Delaware.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A significant system begins to impact the
region today with flash flooding and severe weather all on the
table. The flooding threat will continue into Wednesday. A
Flood Watch is in place for most of New Jersey, all of eastern
Pennsylvania, and northern Delaware.

Update (120PM). A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for
much of the region until 8PM this evening. The initial batch of
convection is moving across Northeast PA and northern NJ attm
with intense rains and gusty winds. More showers and storms will
fire up to the West/Southwest of the area later this afternoon
with more Severe weather possible with that activity. Please
report any severe weather to our office by phone or social
media.

Only one key message in the discussion this morning but impacts
are expected to be felt region-wide and over multiple days. The
most significant and impactful day will be today though as a
deepening area of low pressure moves toward New York, with a
warm front lifting through today and a strong cold front coming
in tonight. The front, aided by strong jet dynamics, will
provide ample lift for widespread showers and thunderstorms and
perhaps multiple rounds today and into tonight.

We will break out the hazards and threats by starting with the
flash flooding threat over the next two days. A lifting warm
front will only strengthen southerly flow through today,
ushering in a very moist airmass. PWATs will approach two
inches which is over the 90th percentile even for late July. A
warm cloud layer over 10k feet will also aid in producing very
efficient rainfall rates. Rates of 1-3" per hour are expected
later this afternoon and evening. This, combined with the
potential for multiple rounds of precipitation will result in a
pretty significant flash flood threat. The WPC Excessive
Rainfall Outlook reflects that, having a MODERATE (3/4) Risk
for Excessive Rainfall for Northern New Jersey with a SLIGHT
(2/4) Risk extending through the rest of the region. The biggest
concern will be the more urban areas which begin to see flash
flooding generally around 1" per hour and that seems very likely
considering today's setup especially in the afternoon and
evening. Some areas may also be more flood prone, given
yesterday's rainfall where there were some flooding reports.

No significant changes in the Flood Watch, which remains in
place for most of New Jersey, all of eastern Pennsylvania, and
northern Delaware. Lower rainfall amounts and areas more in need
of rainfall over far South Jersey and most of Delmarva will
result in a lesser flood threat and those areas staying outside
of the watch. Cannot rule out flash flooding entirely though in
these areas (as we saw yesterday in localized spots) and most of
South Jersey and Delmarva remains in either a Marginal (1/4) or
Slight (2/4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall.

The one minor change was extending the Flood Watch north of I-78
through Wednesday. As low pressure meanders, another front will
come through on Wednesday, capable of producing some heavy
downpours yet again for the northern third of the region. This
will move over some more urbanized areas in North Jersey that
should get a decent amount of rainfall today, potentially
causing more problems. While mainstem river flooding is not
currently forecast, some smaller creeks and streams within the
Passaic and Raritan basins could see some rises that result in
flooding.

When all is said and done, the current QPF forecast through
Wednesday has around 2 to 5 inches of rain north of I-78, with 1
to 3 inches elsewhere. As is usual in summer convective setups,
locally higher amounts are possible. HREF Max in northern New
Jersey has highly localized amounts up to 8" through Wednesday.
Have multiple ways to receive any flood alerts.

In terms of the severe threat, no significant changes were made
to the forecast. Unlike the hydro threat, the severe threat will
be more focused on the southern half of the area. SPC did nudge
the Slight Risk (2/5) a touch south, having far southeast PA,
South Jersey, and all of Delmarva in. The Marginal Risk (1/5) is
in place from Philadelphia on north. Instability will increase
quickly once the warm front passes. Delmarva and South Jersey
will have more time in the warm sector and have higher amounts
of shear to work with. The limiting factor further north towards
Philly and points north will be the amount of cloud cover. Main
timing window is from 2 PM through about 11 PM and damaging
wind gusts the primary threat. Cannot rule out a tornado, though
the tornado threat will be more focused over Delmarva. No area
is currently in any severe outlook category for Wednesday.

Guidance continues to have the surface low to the north potentially
lingering through Thursday, though impacts should mainly be confined
through tomorrow. High pressure nudges in towards the end of the
week and for the weekend, giving us a break from the active pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon... Showers and tstms across easter PA and much of
northern NJ will continue to the east this afternoon. Looks like
most TAF sites will be away from this activity shortly. More
Showers/TSTMs develop behind this (first batch) 21Z-00Z and will
affect all terminals into the early overnight period. MVFR with
IFR at times. Low/medium confid overall.

Tonight...MVFR/IFR conditions expected for at least the first
half of the night with rain and thunderstorms moving out, though
some guidance has conditions improving for the second half of
the night. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Primarily VFR though an unsettled
pattern will result in some restrictions with showers, low
clouds, and isolated thunderstorms, especially from KPHL on
north.

Thursday Night through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory are now up for all marine zones as southerly
wind gusts around 25 kt are expected with seas around 5 feet.
The SCA expires at 8 PM for Delaware Bay but continues through
tonight for all ocean zones as 5 foot seas linger. Showers and
thunderstorms expected on the waters through tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...No marine headlines anticipated.

Rip Currents...

For today, southerly winds around 15 to 20 MPH either shore
parallel or onshore and increasing breaking wave heights of 2 to
4 feet will result in a MODERATE risk for rip currents at all
beaches. Other factors contributing to the rip current risk are
the upcoming full moon, and multiple swell groups within the
surf zone. None of the swell groups will have a period longer
than 8 seconds though.

For Wednesday, winds turn more offshore around 10 MPH or less.
Breaking waves will also decrease to around 2 feet or less.
While the Full Moon is on Wednesday, decreasing wave heights,
more offshore flow, and no wave period longer than 8 seconds
should limit the rip current threat. As a result, elected for a
LOW risk for rip currents at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for PAZ060-070-071-
     101>106.
     Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for PAZ054-055-061-062.
NJ...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for NJZ013>020-026-027.
     Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for NJZ001-007>010-012.
DE...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
     431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>455.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hoeflich
AVIATION...Hoeflich
MARINE...Hoeflich

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
506 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

MDZ012-015-019-020-290915-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
506 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Active and unsettled weather is expected through tonight. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will move through bringing heavy rain and
the potential for flash flooding. Some strong to severe thunderstorms
could produce damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes across the
Eastern Shore.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
134 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Lehigh Valley Internati 40.65N 75.44W
07/28/2026  M50 MPH          Lehigh             PA   ASOS

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
149 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Weisenberg Twp          40.61N 75.73W
07/28/2026                   Lehigh             PA   Emergency Mngr

            PA-863 is closed between Loghouse and Danner
            Roads due to multiple utility poles down.
            From PEMA. Time based on radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
301 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Forks Twp               40.73N 75.19W
07/28/2026  M45 MPH          Northampton        PA   Trained Spotter

&&

PF