Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
611 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 601 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Expect dangerous heat and humidity through late this week. An
  Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through Friday for much of
  the area.

- High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 90s across the
  warning area, with afternoon heat index values as hot as 110+.
  Overnight lows will also remain uncomfortably warm, only falling
  into the mid to upper 70s most areas.

- Low chances for rain and storms will begin to emerge today, with
  better chances this weekend. The strongest storms may produce
  gusty winds and very heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday Night) Issued at 1110 AM CDT Wed
Jul 1 2026

The upper-level ridge that has been bringing us our hot conditions
is slowly beginning to move northeast of us. As the high pressure
begins to move away, the chances for our typically summertime
showers and storms will return, especially in the southern half of
our region. A small upper-level disturbance is moving into our
area from the east, providing just enough lift for potential
pop-up showers and storms today and tomorrow. We are outlooked for
a marginal severe risk both today and tomorrow, with the primary
threats being strong winds and heavy rainfall with any storms that
do develop.

Unfortunately, the hot and dangerous conditions are going to
continue to persist throughout the week. The highs today and
tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 90s across the area,
accompanied by dew points in the low to mid 70s. With that
combination, the heat index will hover in the 100-110 degree range
both days during the afternoon. As the upper-level ridge slowly
begins to pull away, winds will increase ever so slightly, though
not enough to bring any kind of real relief from the heat. Low
temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s, providing
minimal relief from the heat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1110 AM CDT Wed Jul 1
2026

As we head into the 4th of July weekend, the upper-level ridge
will continue to weaken and move towards the east. This will lower
the temperatures slightly throughout the forecast period, though
the heat will still be present with afternoon heat indexes
remaining near or slightly above 100 through at least Monday. As
we head into Monday, an upper-level trough will begin to swing
through the Mississippi River Valley, providing the first
meaningful relief from this extended period of intense heat as
temperatures will begin to fall near climatological norms.

For the 4th of July, afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will be possible, potentially impacting any outdoor
activities. The coverage of these pop-up storms should decrease
the further we get from sunset on Saturday. As the upper-level
ridge loses its influence over the area, shower and
thunderstorm chances will begin to increase heading into Sunday.
As the aforementioned upper-level trough begins to swing near our
region on Monday, widespread rain and thunderstorm chances will
return to our forecast. As the winds aloft will be very light, any
storms that do develop will move slowly. In combination with the
high rain rates with these storms due to an abundance of low-level
moisture, localized flash flooding will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR. Isolated showers and storms will have a low chance to impact
terminals during the afternoon hours tomorrow, and confidence
remains low on timing and exact coverage for TAF mention. Fog for
KCSV/KSRB likely with calm winds and surface moisture, otherwise
expecting light and variable winds with VFR conditions through the
TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      79  99  78  99 /  10  20  10  40
Clarksville    77  97  77  97 /  10  20  10  30
Crossville     72  94  72  95 /   0  20  10  40
Columbia       76  99  75  99 /   0  30  10  40
Cookeville     73  94  73  95 /   0  20  10  30
Jamestown      71  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  40
Lawrenceburg   76  96  75  97 /   0  30  20  30
Murfreesboro   76 100  75 100 /  10  20  10  40
Waverly        76  97  75  98 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for TNZ005>010-
023>032-056>064-075-093>095.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TNZ011-033-034-065-066-
077>080.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Barnwell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
543 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

TNZ094-095-012330-
Lawrence TN-Giles TN-
543 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHWESTERN GILES COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 543 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lexington, or 14 miles south of Lawrenceburg, moving northwest at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceburg, Loretto, St. Joseph, Minor Hill, Leoma, Westpoint, and
Iron City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8760 3503 8761 3504 8758 3505 8758
      3506 8759 3514 8759 3516 8757 3520 8758
      3530 8737 3500 8702
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 119DEG 19KT 3503 8733

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Barnwell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
611 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

TNZ058-060-093>095-020000-
Lawrence TN-Wayne TN-Lewis TN-Maury TN-Giles TN-
611 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN LEWIS...NORTHEASTERN
WAYNE...NORTHERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHWESTERN MAURY AND NORTHWESTERN GILES
COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 610 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong winds ahead of a
strong thunderstorm near Lawrenceburg, moving northwest at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceburg, Hohenwald, Waynesboro, Mount Pleasant, Summertown,
Ethridge, and Henryville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 8713 3515 8758 3538 8775 3556 8753
      3554 8718
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 148DEG 29KT 3531 8740

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

10

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
616 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     9 NW Minor Hill         35.13N 87.28W
07/01/2026                   Lawrence           TN   911 Call Center

            Tree fell into home on Shoally Branch Road.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

JB

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