Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Dangerous heat and humidity will continue through Independence
  Day.

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms this
  afternoon and early evening. Scattered storms could produce
  damaging wind gusts, torrential downpours, and small hail.

- The forecast for next week is not as hot, but very warm and
  humid with medium chances for showers and storms each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Heat headlines were extended through Independence Day. NWS
Heat Risk levels are extreme today and Friday with slight
improvement to borderline Major/Extreme Saturday as the strong
upper level ridge begins to break down. The danger to health will
continue through fireworks time, so please continue to take
appropriate precautions through the holiday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
early evening with more coverage than yesterday. Today's severe
outlook includes a level 2 out of 5 risk area-wide. This will be
a very "conditional" day, meaning most areas will not have storms,
but those who do have storms could get walloped with damaging
downburst winds, torrential downpours, and possibly hail. The
latest CAMs suggest most action will occur along and west of
I-65, including Nashville Metro. This areal forecast is supported
by location of an upper level wave overhead, noted in the
400-250mb potential vorticity field. Sounding parameters are
impressive and greater than yesterday with up to 5000 SB CAPE,
1400 DCAPE, steep low to mid level lapse rates, and 1.75"
precipitable water. Timing of diurnally driven storms will be
mostly between 2 PM and 8 PM. Brief, local flash flooding will
also be a concern with rainfall rates potentially 1 to 2 inches
per hour. Storms should die off quickly in the evening, mostly by
9 PM CDT. Overnight, patchy fog will occur in areas that receive
rain. Otherwise, the overnight will be quite muggy.

Friday will be another hot and humid day with scattered storms.
Heat index values will once again peak mostly in the 105-100
range. Severe storm parameters do not look as impressive for
Friday, but we may still see a few cells with gusty winds and
torrential downpours.

The same diurnal pattern will continue Friday evening with
scattered storms ending early evening then muggy, uncomfortable
conditions through the night.

Saturday (Independence Day) will bring a very slight drop in
temperatures and heat index values as the upper ridge begins to
break down. But, it will continue to be dangerously hot until
sunset. Scattered showers and storms will develop in the heat of
the day and could impact fireworks and other outdoor events.
We are not under a severe storm outlook at this time, but there
will be enough instability for a few typical strong summer
afternoon storms with gusty winds and downpours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The upper ridge will weaken and drift eastward early next week.
This will get us into a little more active pattern with a series
of weak disturbances crossing the region. It will still be
summer-time with hot and humid conditions, but temperatures will
be closer to normal throughout next week. Highs will be mostly in
the lower 90s. There will be medium (40 to 50 percent) chances for
showers and storms each day with mostly diurnal activity peaking
in the late afternoon. There are no significant indications for
severe wx next week, but a few storms could bring gusty winds and
heavy downpours each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

TAFs are VFR across Middle Tennessee airports with vrb winds 5-7
kts due to a ridge of high pressure in the area. However, there's
lots of instability in the area today and thunderstorms are
expected near BNA, MQY, and CKV this afternoon. These sites have
TEMPOs for 20-24z, but tcu is already being observed on satellite
and METARs. Might have to adjust if development gets going early.
Convection will wane this evening and all sites have ~30% thunder
chances tomorrow afternoon, so went ahead and added a PROB30 to
the BNA TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      78  98  77  96 /  30  30  10  30
Clarksville    77  97  75  95 /  30  30  20  40
Crossville     73  94  71  91 /  10  40  20  30
Columbia       75  98  74  96 /  20  40  20  30
Cookeville     74  95  72  92 /  10  40  20  30
Jamestown      72  94  71  92 /  10  30  10  30
Lawrenceburg   75  95  73  93 /  20  40  20  30
Murfreesboro   76  99  74  97 /  10  40  20  30
Waverly        76  97  74  95 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for TNZ005>010-
023>032-056>064-075-093>095.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
TNZ005>010-023>032-056>064-075-093>095.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ011-033-034-065-066-
077>080.

&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Sizemore

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
439 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 NE College Grove      35.86N 86.58W
07/02/2026                   Rutherford         TN   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Large tree down on Almaville Rd between
            Highway 96 and I-840.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
446 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

TNZ059-062-022215-
Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-
446 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND EAST
CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

At 446 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Nolensville, or 11 miles west of Murfreesboro. This thunderstorm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Nolensville, Eagleville, and Triune.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 66 and 74.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 37 and 52.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3598 8667 3597 8665 3597 8662 3598 8661
      3599 8661 3596 8651 3581 8645 3573 8667
      3588 8678 3600 8669
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 219DEG 3KT 3589 8659

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40/Sizemore

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
450 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     Hail             6 E Clarksville         36.56N 87.23W
07/02/2026  E0.88 Inch       Montgomery         TN   Trained Spotter

            Dime to nickel size hail at Rollow Rd near
            Rossview Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
504 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W Fredonia            36.44N 87.23W
07/02/2026                   Montgomery         TN   Public

            Tree limbs down along with nickel size hail
            in Fredonia.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
505 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

TNZ005-006-023-024-056-057-022245-
Hickman TN-Stewart TN-Humphreys TN-Montgomery TN-Houston TN-Perry TN-
505 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...
STEWART...HOUSTON...NORTHEASTERN PERRY...HUMPHREYS AND NORTHWESTERN
HICKMAN COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 505 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles east of Dover to 11 miles north of
Linden. Movement was north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Waverly, Camden, Dover, Erin, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Tennessee
Ridge, Hurricane Mills, Big Rock, Lobelville, Cumberland City, I-40
Near The Tennessee River, Bucksnort, Houston County Airport, and
Indian Mound.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 136 and 152.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8781 3638 8749
      3566 8772 3580 8797 3592 8793 3594 8793
      3594 8800 3605 8798 3615 8792 3622 8795
      3631 8796 3667 8791
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 162DEG 6KT 3646 8772 3577 8780

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40/Sizemore