Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Dangerous heat and humidity will continue through Independence
  Day.

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms this
  afternoon and early evening. Scattered storms could produce
  damaging wind gusts, torrential downpours, and small hail.

- The forecast for next week is not as hot, but very warm and
  humid with medium chances for showers and storms each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Heat headlines were extended through Independence Day. NWS
Heat Risk levels are extreme today and Friday with slight
improvement to borderline Major/Extreme Saturday as the strong
upper level ridge begins to break down. The danger to health will
continue through fireworks time, so please continue to take
appropriate precautions through the holiday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
early evening with more coverage than yesterday. Today's severe
outlook includes a level 2 out of 5 risk area-wide. This will be
a very "conditional" day, meaning most areas will not have storms,
but those who do have storms could get walloped with damaging
downburst winds, torrential downpours, and possibly hail. The
latest CAMs suggest most action will occur along and west of
I-65, including Nashville Metro. This areal forecast is supported
by location of an upper level wave overhead, noted in the
400-250mb potential vorticity field. Sounding parameters are
impressive and greater than yesterday with up to 5000 SB CAPE,
1400 DCAPE, steep low to mid level lapse rates, and 1.75"
precipitable water. Timing of diurnally driven storms will be
mostly between 2 PM and 8 PM. Brief, local flash flooding will
also be a concern with rainfall rates potentially 1 to 2 inches
per hour. Storms should die off quickly in the evening, mostly by
9 PM CDT. Overnight, patchy fog will occur in areas that receive
rain. Otherwise, the overnight will be quite muggy.

Friday will be another hot and humid day with scattered storms.
Heat index values will once again peak mostly in the 105-100
range. Severe storm parameters do not look as impressive for
Friday, but we may still see a few cells with gusty winds and
torrential downpours.

The same diurnal pattern will continue Friday evening with
scattered storms ending early evening then muggy, uncomfortable
conditions through the night.

Saturday (Independence Day) will bring a very slight drop in
temperatures and heat index values as the upper ridge begins to
break down. But, it will continue to be dangerously hot until
sunset. Scattered showers and storms will develop in the heat of
the day and could impact fireworks and other outdoor events.
We are not under a severe storm outlook at this time, but there
will be enough instability for a few typical strong summer
afternoon storms with gusty winds and downpours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The upper ridge will weaken and drift eastward early next week.
This will get us into a little more active pattern with a series
of weak disturbances crossing the region. It will still be
summer-time with hot and humid conditions, but temperatures will
be closer to normal throughout next week. Highs will be mostly in
the lower 90s. There will be medium (40 to 50 percent) chances for
showers and storms each day with mostly diurnal activity peaking
in the late afternoon. There are no significant indications for
severe wx next week, but a few storms could bring gusty winds and
heavy downpours each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

TAFs are VFR across Middle Tennessee airports with vrb winds 5-7
kts due to a ridge of high pressure in the area. However, there's
lots of instability in the area today and thunderstorms are
expected near BNA, MQY, and CKV this afternoon. These sites have
TEMPOs for 20-24z, but tcu is already being observed on satellite
and METARs. Might have to adjust if development gets going early.
Convection will wane this evening and all sites have ~30% thunder
chances tomorrow afternoon, so went ahead and added a PROB30 to
the BNA TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      78  98  77  96 /  30  30  10  30
Clarksville    77  97  75  95 /  30  30  20  40
Crossville     73  94  71  91 /  10  40  20  30
Columbia       75  98  74  96 /  20  40  20  30
Cookeville     74  95  72  92 /  10  40  20  30
Jamestown      72  94  71  92 /  10  30  10  30
Lawrenceburg   75  95  73  93 /  20  40  20  30
Murfreesboro   76  99  74  97 /  10  40  20  30
Waverly        76  97  74  95 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for TNZ005>010-
023>032-056>064-075-093>095.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
TNZ005>010-023>032-056>064-075-093>095.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ011-033-034-065-066-
077>080.

&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Sizemore

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
220 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

TNZ008-027-022000-
Davidson TN-Sumner TN-
220 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN DAVIDSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 220 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hermitage, or 9 miles east of Nashville, moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Hendersonville, Goodlettsville, Millersville, Lakewood, Old
Hickory, Hermitage, Whites Creek, and Green Hill.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 218 and 221.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 88 and 99.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 40 and 44.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 8658 3625 8659 3619 8657 3614 8664
      3625 8685 3640 8666
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 139DEG 8KT 3622 8662

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40/Sizemore

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
305 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

TNZ025-057-060-022030-
Hickman TN-Dickson TN-Maury TN-
305 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL DICKSON...
NORTHWESTERN MAURY AND EASTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 305 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Centerville, moving west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, Centerville, Primm Springs, Williamsport, Lyles, and Bon
Aqua.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 169 and 173.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 4 and 5.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8740 3596 8721 3585 8721 3585 8720
      3567 8719 3565 8747
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 111DEG 14KT 3583 8728

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40/Sizemore

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
308 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

TNZ026-027-059-061-062-022100-
Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-Marshall TN-
308 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DAVIDSON...NORTH
CENTRAL MARSHALL...WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...WILLIAMSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN CHEATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 308 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Nolensville, or near Franklin, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Brentwood, Spring Hill, Nolensville, Forest Hills, Oak
Hill, Belle Meade, Thompson's Station, Pegram, Bellevue, Chapel Hill,
Eagleville, Bells Bend, Triune, and Natchez Trace At Highway 96.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 191 and 206.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 55 and 79.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 25 and 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 8654 3562 8669 3570 8679 3571 8679
      3571 8681 3584 8697 3614 8707 3626 8691
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 125DEG 12KT 3592 8675

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40/Sizemore