Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
800 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch for heavy rain and flash flood potential due to
  training thunderstorms tonight across central MN.

- Isolated to scattered severe storms expected for west-central
  MN south of the heaviest rainfall.

- Heavy rain and severe weather risk shift to eastern MN and
  western WI for Wednesday.

- Drier and much warmer pattern expected this weekend and into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Tonight into Wednesday... The primary forecast concern continues
to be the potential for very heavy rain amounts and localized
flash flooding tonight across central Minnesota. There are
several factors that point towards this being a prime
environment for flooding; favorable soundings with long and
skinny CAPE profiles, warm cloud layer depth over 12k ft, PWATs
within the 99th percentile for early July, and relatively slow
cloud layer winds parallel to the boundary. The one caveat is
that many of the hi-res models have struggled to capture the
morning convection that tracked across eastern SoDak and western
Minnesota. While these storms may end up limiting storm
development later today, the more likely impact is that we see
the stationary boundary set up further south than what the model
consensus has been up to this point. In fact, you are already
beginning to see that shift with the some of the latest 18z
model runs (including the HRRR and RRFS). Wherever this boundary
officially sets up, will be the axis for the highest rain
amounts overnight. As the LLJ increases tonight, efficient
moisture advection and lift will occur on the nose of the jet
(near the stationary boundary). As storms go up along the
boundary, they will push east, leaving space for more storms to
build behind them. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" are expected, with
localized amounts of 4 or more inches possible within this zone
of training storms. The HREF ensemble max amounts peak around
5-6". A Flood Watch has been issued to highlight this potential
for heavy rainfall and flash flooding due to training
thunderstorms across central MN overnight.

The convection this morning and afternoon should limit the
overall severe threat tonight, or at the very least keep the
majority of it south of I-94 withing the moist/unstable warm
sector. The greatest severe threat would be damaging winds and
large hail, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out given low
LCLs.

The boundary shifts south tomorrow, shifting the heavy rain and
severe weather risk with it as well. This will put eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin under the main risks, with
severe wind and hail the main threats. Depending on how far
south the boundary sets up, southeast MN may be looking at a
higher risk for any flooding given the recent heavy rain across
the region just a few days ago. A Flood Watch is not as likely
tomorrow, though it a short fused alert may be leveraged if
needed.

Thursday into Next Week... Any lingering rain should be mostly
wrapped by Thursday, bringing us to a stretch of drier weather
with upper level heights building overhead. There continues to
be a strong signal for prolonged heat. Humidity is expected to
be not as dramatic as our previous stint of heat, with dewpoints
in the mid 60s. This will be the main talking point after
getting past our active weather tonight and tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 747 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Tranquil start to the TAFs as precip has dissipated across the
entirety of the WFO MPX coverage area at initialization time.
However, CAMs still portray a complex of RA/TSRA moving eastward
from the Dakotas late this evening and through much of the
overnight hours from west-central to east-central MN into
northwestern WI. Fairly high confidence that all TAF sites
north of RWF-MKT will see a combination of RA/TSRA for multiple
periods during the first half of this TAF period, with
conditions likely into MVFR and possibly IFR. After this morning
round of convection, there is a chance of an additional round of
RA/TSRA mid-to-late afternoon Wednesday, mainly for southern-
eastern MN into western WI. The earlier timeframe has the better
confidence, thus have used TEMPO for the earlier timeframe then
transitioned to PROB30s for the later timeframe. Winds will also
be tricky with the surface front responsible for the
precipitation sitting across MN/WI throughout this TAF period.
Speeds under 10kt expected throughout but the directions may run
variable from time to time.

KMSP...VFR to start with fairly thick mid-level clouds at
initialization. First window for RA/TSRA looks to overnight,
prior to and through sunrise (thus potentially impacting morning
push traffic). Currently have conditions within MVFR but IFR
conditions due to visibility in heavier rain and/or low ceilings
cannot be ruled out. Clouds then remain in place throughout the
day with some uncertainty as to whether an additional round of
convection develops early-mid afternoon. Currently have that
second/later round as a PROB30 and will need to see how models
evolve that round. But, TSRA still viable in that afternoon
round so have kept its mention there as well. Winds will remain
under 10kts outside of convection, so it becomes a matter of
quick directional changes with the surface front atop the area
and convection outflows making for short-duration changes.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR chc IFR cigs in mrng. VFR aftn. Wind NE 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for Douglas-Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Todd.
     Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for Benton-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
346 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
082100-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
346 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a level 2 of 5 severe weather risk for most of central
and southern Minnesota, with a level 1 risk in Wisconsin. Damaging
wind gusts will be the primary risk, with a risk for large hail
and a tornado or two in western Minnesota. In addition to the
severe risk, the potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms
over the same location will lead to a risk for flash flooding,
especially across west central and central Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and occasionally severe weather
will continue through Wednesday night. The severe weather and
heavy rainfall risks for Wednesday will shift to south central
and east central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin.

This weekend, heat and humidity are expected to build back into
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Afternoon heat index values near 100
Sunday and Monday will lead to an increased risk for dangerous
heat late this weekend into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
939 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

MNZ041-080330-
Douglas MN-
939 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY UNTIL
1030 PM CDT...

At 939 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Evansville, or 18 miles northwest of Alexandria, moving east at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Melby, Evansville, Brandon, Millerville, Garfield, Leaf Valley,
  Lake Carlos State Park, Miltona, Alexandria, Carlos, Belle River
  and Rose City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4590 9514 4597 9577 4611 9577 4611 9515
      4593 9515 4593 9514
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 261DEG 34KT 4606 9566

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dunleavy