Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Twin Cities, MN

422 
WWUS53 KMPX 080347
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1047 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

MNC073-149-151-080430-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-260708T0430Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-Stevens MN-Swift MN-
1047 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LAC QUI PARLE, STEVENS AND WESTERN SWIFT COUNTIES...

At 1047 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from
20 miles northwest of Chokio to 9 miles north of Bellingham, or along
a line from 30 miles northwest of Morris to 28 miles southwest of
Morris, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Big Stone National Wildlife Refuge, Bellingham, Chokio, Louisburg,
  Fish Lake, Lake Hattie, Alberta, Donnelly, Appleton, Morris
  Airport, Lake Oliver, Morris, Appleton Airport and Holloway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds.

Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Seek shelter
immediately in an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built
structure.

&&

LAT...LON 4541 9612 4541 9624 4576 9625 4576 9592
      4559 9591 4515 9586 4515 9604 4514 9603
      4513 9645 4527 9645 4525 9629 4522 9627
      4522 9622 4519 9617 4520 9614 4518 9610
      4524 9610 4524 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 259DEG 25KT 4579 9657 4568 9635 4554 9631 4525
9639

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Dunleavy

870 
WWUS53 KMPX 080406
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1106 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

MNC073-149-151-080430-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-260708T0430Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-Stevens MN-Swift MN-
1106 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LAC QUI PARLE, STEVENS AND WESTERN SWIFT COUNTIES...

At 1106 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from 8
miles northwest of Donnelly to 9 miles north of Milan, or along a
line from 16 miles northwest of Morris to 22 miles north of
Montevideo, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and small hail.

SOURCE...Storm chaser reported a 58 mph wind gust near Chokio.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Big Stone National Wildlife Refuge, Bellingham, Chokio, Louisburg,
  Lake Hattie, Fish Lake, Alberta, Lake Oliver, Appleton, Appleton
  Airport, Donnelly, Morris Airport, Morris and Holloway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. These storms have produced damaging winds.

Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Seek shelter
immediately in an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built
structure.

&&

LAT...LON 4541 9612 4541 9624 4576 9625 4576 9592
      4559 9591 4515 9586 4515 9604 4514 9603
      4513 9645 4527 9645 4525 9629 4522 9627
      4522 9622 4519 9617 4520 9614 4518 9610
      4524 9610 4524 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 0347Z 264DEG 34KT 4576 9638 4565 9616 4551 9611 4535
9611 4523 9614

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Dunleavy

800 
WWUS53 KMPX 080416
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1116 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

MNC073-149-151-080426-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-260708T0430Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-Stevens MN-Swift MN-
1116 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN LAC QUI
PARLE, STEVENS AND WESTERN SWIFT COUNTIES...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However, heavy rain is
still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT
Wednesday for a portion of west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4541 9612 4541 9624 4576 9625 4576 9592
      4559 9591 4515 9586 4515 9604 4514 9603
      4513 9645 4527 9645 4525 9629 4522 9627
      4522 9622 4519 9617 4520 9614 4518 9610
      4524 9610 4524 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 0406Z 262DEG 34KT 4579 9613 4568 9592 4554 9587 4538
9586 4526 9589

$$

Dunleavy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
800 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch for heavy rain and flash flood potential due to
  training thunderstorms tonight across central MN.

- Isolated to scattered severe storms expected for west-central
  MN south of the heaviest rainfall.

- Heavy rain and severe weather risk shift to eastern MN and
  western WI for Wednesday.

- Drier and much warmer pattern expected this weekend and into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Tonight into Wednesday... The primary forecast concern continues
to be the potential for very heavy rain amounts and localized
flash flooding tonight across central Minnesota. There are
several factors that point towards this being a prime
environment for flooding; favorable soundings with long and
skinny CAPE profiles, warm cloud layer depth over 12k ft, PWATs
within the 99th percentile for early July, and relatively slow
cloud layer winds parallel to the boundary. The one caveat is
that many of the hi-res models have struggled to capture the
morning convection that tracked across eastern SoDak and western
Minnesota. While these storms may end up limiting storm
development later today, the more likely impact is that we see
the stationary boundary set up further south than what the model
consensus has been up to this point. In fact, you are already
beginning to see that shift with the some of the latest 18z
model runs (including the HRRR and RRFS). Wherever this boundary
officially sets up, will be the axis for the highest rain
amounts overnight. As the LLJ increases tonight, efficient
moisture advection and lift will occur on the nose of the jet
(near the stationary boundary). As storms go up along the
boundary, they will push east, leaving space for more storms to
build behind them. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" are expected, with
localized amounts of 4 or more inches possible within this zone
of training storms. The HREF ensemble max amounts peak around
5-6". A Flood Watch has been issued to highlight this potential
for heavy rainfall and flash flooding due to training
thunderstorms across central MN overnight.

The convection this morning and afternoon should limit the
overall severe threat tonight, or at the very least keep the
majority of it south of I-94 withing the moist/unstable warm
sector. The greatest severe threat would be damaging winds and
large hail, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out given low
LCLs.

The boundary shifts south tomorrow, shifting the heavy rain and
severe weather risk with it as well. This will put eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin under the main risks, with
severe wind and hail the main threats. Depending on how far
south the boundary sets up, southeast MN may be looking at a
higher risk for any flooding given the recent heavy rain across
the region just a few days ago. A Flood Watch is not as likely
tomorrow, though it a short fused alert may be leveraged if
needed.

Thursday into Next Week... Any lingering rain should be mostly
wrapped by Thursday, bringing us to a stretch of drier weather
with upper level heights building overhead. There continues to
be a strong signal for prolonged heat. Humidity is expected to
be not as dramatic as our previous stint of heat, with dewpoints
in the mid 60s. This will be the main talking point after
getting past our active weather tonight and tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 747 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Tranquil start to the TAFs as precip has dissipated across the
entirety of the WFO MPX coverage area at initialization time.
However, CAMs still portray a complex of RA/TSRA moving eastward
from the Dakotas late this evening and through much of the
overnight hours from west-central to east-central MN into
northwestern WI. Fairly high confidence that all TAF sites
north of RWF-MKT will see a combination of RA/TSRA for multiple
periods during the first half of this TAF period, with
conditions likely into MVFR and possibly IFR. After this morning
round of convection, there is a chance of an additional round of
RA/TSRA mid-to-late afternoon Wednesday, mainly for southern-
eastern MN into western WI. The earlier timeframe has the better
confidence, thus have used TEMPO for the earlier timeframe then
transitioned to PROB30s for the later timeframe. Winds will also
be tricky with the surface front responsible for the
precipitation sitting across MN/WI throughout this TAF period.
Speeds under 10kt expected throughout but the directions may run
variable from time to time.

KMSP...VFR to start with fairly thick mid-level clouds at
initialization. First window for RA/TSRA looks to overnight,
prior to and through sunrise (thus potentially impacting morning
push traffic). Currently have conditions within MVFR but IFR
conditions due to visibility in heavier rain and/or low ceilings
cannot be ruled out. Clouds then remain in place throughout the
day with some uncertainty as to whether an additional round of
convection develops early-mid afternoon. Currently have that
second/later round as a PROB30 and will need to see how models
evolve that round. But, TSRA still viable in that afternoon
round so have kept its mention there as well. Winds will remain
under 10kts outside of convection, so it becomes a matter of
quick directional changes with the surface front atop the area
and convection outflows making for short-duration changes.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR chc IFR cigs in mrng. VFR aftn. Wind NE 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for Douglas-Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Todd.
     Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for Benton-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1028 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
082130-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1028 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a level 2 of 5 severe weather risk for most of western
and central Minnesota, with a level 1 of 5 risk in far eastern
Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary risk, with large hail and a tornado or two also possible.
In addition to the severe risk, the potential for multiple rounds
of thunderstorms over the same location will lead to a risk for
flash flooding, especially across west central and central
Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and occasionally severe weather
will continue through Wednesday night. The severe weather and
heavy rainfall risks for Wednesday will shift to south central
and east central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin.

This weekend, heat and humidity are expected to build back into
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Afternoon heat index values near 100
Sunday and Monday will lead to an increased risk for dangerous
heat late this weekend into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed overnight tonight
and possibly Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
939 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

MNZ041-080330-
Douglas MN-
939 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY UNTIL
1030 PM CDT...

At 939 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Evansville, or 18 miles northwest of Alexandria, moving east at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Melby, Evansville, Brandon, Millerville, Garfield, Leaf Valley,
  Lake Carlos State Park, Miltona, Alexandria, Carlos, Belle River
  and Rose City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4590 9514 4597 9577 4611 9577 4611 9515
      4593 9515 4593 9514
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 261DEG 34KT 4606 9566

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dunleavy