Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Twin Cities, MN

889 
WWUS53 KMPX 080551
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

MNC065-080601-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0164.000000T0000Z-260708T0600Z/
Kanabec MN-
1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 AM CDT FOR KANABEC
COUNTY...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for a
portion of east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4586 9347 4598 9347 4598 9343 4615 9343
      4616 9329 4616 9305 4598 9306 4598 9314
      4585 9314
TIME...MOT...LOC 0529Z 262DEG 24KT 4600 9331

$$

Dunleavy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
800 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch for heavy rain and flash flood potential due to
  training thunderstorms tonight across central MN.

- Isolated to scattered severe storms expected for west-central
  MN south of the heaviest rainfall.

- Heavy rain and severe weather risk shift to eastern MN and
  western WI for Wednesday.

- Drier and much warmer pattern expected this weekend and into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Tonight into Wednesday... The primary forecast concern continues
to be the potential for very heavy rain amounts and localized
flash flooding tonight across central Minnesota. There are
several factors that point towards this being a prime
environment for flooding; favorable soundings with long and
skinny CAPE profiles, warm cloud layer depth over 12k ft, PWATs
within the 99th percentile for early July, and relatively slow
cloud layer winds parallel to the boundary. The one caveat is
that many of the hi-res models have struggled to capture the
morning convection that tracked across eastern SoDak and western
Minnesota. While these storms may end up limiting storm
development later today, the more likely impact is that we see
the stationary boundary set up further south than what the model
consensus has been up to this point. In fact, you are already
beginning to see that shift with the some of the latest 18z
model runs (including the HRRR and RRFS). Wherever this boundary
officially sets up, will be the axis for the highest rain
amounts overnight. As the LLJ increases tonight, efficient
moisture advection and lift will occur on the nose of the jet
(near the stationary boundary). As storms go up along the
boundary, they will push east, leaving space for more storms to
build behind them. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" are expected, with
localized amounts of 4 or more inches possible within this zone
of training storms. The HREF ensemble max amounts peak around
5-6". A Flood Watch has been issued to highlight this potential
for heavy rainfall and flash flooding due to training
thunderstorms across central MN overnight.

The convection this morning and afternoon should limit the
overall severe threat tonight, or at the very least keep the
majority of it south of I-94 withing the moist/unstable warm
sector. The greatest severe threat would be damaging winds and
large hail, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out given low
LCLs.

The boundary shifts south tomorrow, shifting the heavy rain and
severe weather risk with it as well. This will put eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin under the main risks, with
severe wind and hail the main threats. Depending on how far
south the boundary sets up, southeast MN may be looking at a
higher risk for any flooding given the recent heavy rain across
the region just a few days ago. A Flood Watch is not as likely
tomorrow, though it a short fused alert may be leveraged if
needed.

Thursday into Next Week... Any lingering rain should be mostly
wrapped by Thursday, bringing us to a stretch of drier weather
with upper level heights building overhead. There continues to
be a strong signal for prolonged heat. Humidity is expected to
be not as dramatic as our previous stint of heat, with dewpoints
in the mid 60s. This will be the main talking point after
getting past our active weather tonight and tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 747 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Tranquil start to the TAFs as precip has dissipated across the
entirety of the WFO MPX coverage area at initialization time.
However, CAMs still portray a complex of RA/TSRA moving eastward
from the Dakotas late this evening and through much of the
overnight hours from west-central to east-central MN into
northwestern WI. Fairly high confidence that all TAF sites
north of RWF-MKT will see a combination of RA/TSRA for multiple
periods during the first half of this TAF period, with
conditions likely into MVFR and possibly IFR. After this morning
round of convection, there is a chance of an additional round of
RA/TSRA mid-to-late afternoon Wednesday, mainly for southern-
eastern MN into western WI. The earlier timeframe has the better
confidence, thus have used TEMPO for the earlier timeframe then
transitioned to PROB30s for the later timeframe. Winds will also
be tricky with the surface front responsible for the
precipitation sitting across MN/WI throughout this TAF period.
Speeds under 10kt expected throughout but the directions may run
variable from time to time.

KMSP...VFR to start with fairly thick mid-level clouds at
initialization. First window for RA/TSRA looks to overnight,
prior to and through sunrise (thus potentially impacting morning
push traffic). Currently have conditions within MVFR but IFR
conditions due to visibility in heavier rain and/or low ceilings
cannot be ruled out. Clouds then remain in place throughout the
day with some uncertainty as to whether an additional round of
convection develops early-mid afternoon. Currently have that
second/later round as a PROB30 and will need to see how models
evolve that round. But, TSRA still viable in that afternoon
round so have kept its mention there as well. Winds will remain
under 10kts outside of convection, so it becomes a matter of
quick directional changes with the surface front atop the area
and convection outflows making for short-duration changes.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR chc IFR cigs in mrng. VFR aftn. Wind NE 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for Douglas-Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Todd.
     Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for Benton-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1028 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
082130-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1028 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a level 2 of 5 severe weather risk for most of western
and central Minnesota, with a level 1 of 5 risk in far eastern
Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary risk, with large hail and a tornado or two also possible.
In addition to the severe risk, the potential for multiple rounds
of thunderstorms over the same location will lead to a risk for
flash flooding, especially across west central and central
Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and occasionally severe weather
will continue through Wednesday night. The severe weather and
heavy rainfall risks for Wednesday will shift to south central
and east central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin.

This weekend, heat and humidity are expected to build back into
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Afternoon heat index values near 100
Sunday and Monday will lead to an increased risk for dangerous
heat late this weekend into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed overnight tonight
and possibly Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NW Chokio             45.61N 96.22W
07/07/2026  M58 MPH          Stevens            MN   Emergency Mngr

            Gust measured via anemometer.

&&

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1058 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

MNZ041>043-080445-
Douglas MN-Morrison MN-Todd MN-
1058 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS...
TODD AND WESTERN MORRISON COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1058 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 5 miles southeast of Motley to near Lake
Osakis, or extending from 23 miles northwest of Little Falls to 9
miles east of Alexandria, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Nelson, Eagle Bend, Clarissa, Lake Osakis, Browerville, Long
  Prairie, Cushing, Randall, Little Sauk, Round Prairie, Camp Ripley,
  Grey Eagle, Little Falls, Flensburg, Swanville, Sobieski, Upsala,
  Bowlus and Royalton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4576 9545 4626 9496 4633 9463 4630 9453
      4633 9443 4630 9439 4630 9435 4628 9435
      4627 9434 4623 9439 4621 9439 4618 9437
      4616 9437 4616 9428 4582 9427 4582 9435
      4579 9431 4578 9427 4577 9514 4576 9514
TIME...MOT...LOC 0357Z 257DEG 25KT 4627 9458 4610 9463 4593 9483 4587
9518

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dunleavy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1104 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

MNZ041-047-048-055-056-080500-
Douglas MN-Swift MN-Stevens MN-Pope MN-Chippewa MN-
1104 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL
CHIPPEWA...EASTERN STEVENS...SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS...WESTERN POPE AND
EASTERN SWIFT COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1104 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 7 miles north of Donnelly to 7 miles
northeast of Appleton, or extending from 15 miles northwest of Morris
to 23 miles northwest of Montevideo, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Morris, Hancock, Hagen, Big Bend City, Danvers, Clontarf, Cyrus,
  Lake Emily, Benson Airport, Benson, Kensington, Lake Hassel,
  Glacial Lakes State Park, Farwell, Starbuck, De Graff, Lowry, Lake
  Minnewaska and Long Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4541 9591 4576 9593 4576 9576 4583 9576
      4583 9538 4548 9544 4514 9547 4514 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 0404Z 259DEG 25KT 4578 9605 4564 9595 4547 9586 4525
9591

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dunleavy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1146 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

MNZ048-049-055-057-080545-
Pope MN-Kandiyohi MN-Swift MN-Stearns MN-
1146 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN KANDIYOHI...
EASTERN POPE...NORTHEASTERN SWIFT AND NORTHWESTERN STEARNS COUNTIES
UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

At 1146 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 5 miles south of Glenwood to 6 miles
north of Murdock, or extending from 22 miles south of Alexandria to
21 miles northwest of Willmar, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Sauk Centre, Melrose, Glenwood, Starbuck, New London, Spicer,
  Brooten, Belgrade, Murdock, Green Lake, Norway Lake, Grove Lake,
  Greenwald, Elrosa, Gilchrist, Meire Grove, De Graff, Lake Henry,
  Sunburg and Spring Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4522 9557 4545 9550 4565 9560 4575 9482
      4548 9476 4520 9477
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 265DEG 28KT 4558 9542 4545 9536 4530 9541

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MPG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1154 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

MNZ043>045-080600-
Mille Lacs MN-Morrison MN-Kanabec MN-
1154 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KANABEC...NORTHERN
MILLE LACS AND EAST CENTRAL MORRISON COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM CDT...

At 1154 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 8 miles northeast of Isle to 11 miles
southwest of Onamia, or extending from 49 miles north of Cambridge to
26 miles east of Little Falls, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mille Lacs Kathio State Park, Rum River State Forest, Hillman, Lake
  Mille Lacs, Onamia, Bayview, Wahkon, Father Hennepin State Park,
  Isle, Snake River State Forest, Warman, Mora, Knife Lake, Mora
  Airport and Quamba.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4591 9399 4625 9361 4625 9343 4615 9343
      4616 9329 4616 9305 4598 9306 4598 9314
      4582 9314
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 260DEG 26KT 4624 9338 4607 9354 4595 9382

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dunleavy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1211 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

MNZ043>045-050-052-080600-
Kanabec MN-Benton MN-Mille Lacs MN-Morrison MN-Isanti MN-
1211 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ISANTI...SOUTHERN
KANABEC...SOUTHERN MILLE LACS...EASTERN BENTON AND SOUTHEASTERN
MORRISON COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM CDT...

At 1211 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Foley, or 25 miles northeast of St. Cloud, moving east
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Morrill, Gilman, Foley, Granite Ledge, Rum River, Oak Park,
  Foreston, Milaca, Rum River State Forest, Pease, Bock, Ogilvie,
  Dalbo, Lewis Lake, Mora, Brunswick, Grasston and Stanchfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4560 9406 4592 9399 4583 9314 4558 9314
TIME...MOT...LOC 0511Z 277DEG 32KT 4582 9387

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Dunleavy