Flood Watch 2, NWS Twin Cities, MN

104 
WGUS63 KMPX 090217
FFAMPX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
917 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

MNZ093-090330-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-260709T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Freeborn-
Including the cities of Albert Lea
917 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch is cancelled for a portion of south central
Minnesota, including the following area, Freeborn County.

Flash flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please
continue to heed remaining road closures.

$$

LPR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
659 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing showers and storms could produce brief gusty winds
  and localized flooding. Chance for severe weather is low.

- Another round of storms is possible this afternoon and
  evening favoring southern to southeastern MN and western WI.

- Chances for additional rainfall after today are few and far
  between, with temperatures heating up into the weekend and
  even more into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The radar mosaic as of 245am shows a few clusters of generally weak
storms moving across the region, with the most notable being
clusters over western WI moving east, in western Stearns moving
east, and in eastern SoDak moving east. The main concern has
transitioned from the severe threat earlier in the night to a
localized/flash flooding threat as the lower level inversion has
resulted in significant low level capping and a lack of wind gusts
making it to the surface. The last few storms could still produce a
gust or two, but generally we expect to see little in the way of
traditional severe weather threats from this point forward due to a
lack of instability. As far as the flooding threat goes, we are not
completely out of the woods yet but the trajectory of the storms
moving in this morning is farther south than what moved through
earlier in the night, and as such the flooding threat is a bit lower
as we have yet to see storms moving through an area that was already
hit. We may end up issuing a couple flood warnings yet tonight, but
the overall risk is a bit lower than it was looking thanks to the
different locations of separate storms. In general compared to the
guidance, the later rounds of storms have been farther south of the
HREF PMM QPF which was favoring an area from St. Cloud to Brainerd,
and instead this round is more clustered from St. Cloud to Mankato.
A couple inches of rain are possible from the storms moving in, and
for those that have been mostly dry so far we will struggle to see
any significant flooding from this. The one exception would be urban
areas that lead to significant runoff, so we are not quite
completely out of the woods yet.

The frontal boundary along which the storms have been moving is
expected to sag southwards throughout the day, and there are some
pretty significant timing differences between the CAMs still. The
RRFS produces a couple storms in northern Iowa that move towards
southern MN as early as 10-11am, with the HRRR keeping storms around
from this morning much later and re-forming storms generally shortly
before or around 6pm. Forecast soundings from the HRRR in southern
MN show a healthy 2500-3000 J/KG SBCAPE by 3pm with little if any
capping and adiabatic surface lapse rates allowing for decent
mixing, so I wouldn't be surprised if storms started to fire a bit
earlier than the model reflectivity is suggesting for the post-
morning round. The main limiting factor will be the shear as the
hodograph is fairly unidirectional with the majority of the profile
favoring westerly winds with a slight southward tilt in the lower
levels. Speed shear is still good enough to maintain storms as they
get going, so while spinning storms would be less likely outside of
storm/outflow interactions, storms should be able to maintain their
strength if they remain discreet enough. Overall the inclusion of
the marginal/slight SPC risks is welcome for southern MN as we
certainly have the thermodynamics and just enough dynamics to
support the storms.

As the storms exit later today, that is pretty much it for rain
chances for the foreseeable future as we transition to the incoming
heat dome that has been advertised by us and the weather enterprise
in general. There is some uncertainty remaining in just how warm we
get as can be seen if you compare the 500mb maps beginning Sunday
through midweek from the GEFS/EPS respectively. The GEFS trough is
more progressive in eastern North America which allows the ridge to
flatten earlier, resulting in a marginally weaker dome of heat
which would promote low to mid 90s as our warmest temperatures for
Monday and Tuesday. The EPS is a bit slower, resulting in taller
500mb heights almost reaching 600dam, with EPS mean highs in the
upper 90s for early next week. We are more than likely looking at
heat headlines regardless of which wins out for at least a
Monday/Tuesday next week, with more possible depending on which
ultimately is closer to reality. Precipitation chances will be
absent as long as the ridge is in place as large scale subsidence
will be present, with the longer range ensemble meteograms showing
very few members with appreciable rain chances until at least
Thursday next week and even then it is less than 20% of EPS members.
The NAEFS continue to highlight near maxed out 500mb heights and
99th percentile temperatures for this time of year to nobodies
surprise. It might be a good idea to prep a bit early for this heat
wave and find ways to keep cool next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

It will be a messy day today, as showers and storms will
continue to come and go along a diffuse front as it pushes
through the area. At 630am, that front sat from roughly Appleton
(KAQP), to STC, and DLH. Models have really struggled to handle
the southern extent of the area of rain/TS moving out of
southwest MN, but the idea models like the HRRR give is that the
current diminishing trend will continue through the morning.
Storms are expected to refire around noon along the front, with
the afternoon TS threat being along and southeast of a MKT to
EAU line. For this afternoon, MKT and EAU are the only sites
where TS is mentioned. Another area of uncertainty for today is
just how low/widespread post frontal stratus will be. There is
quite the mix of VFR, MFVR, and IFR cigs in central MN now, but
do expect the MVFR/IFR stratus in central MN to become more
widespread. For tonight, the LAV/GFSlamp go hard into stratus
and fog, but RAP soundings show things clearing out with no fog
tonight. Leaned the optimistic route for now, but that will be
something to watch.

KMSP...best rain chances are expected through 18z. Given the
morning timing of the showers, it is possible they produce very
little lightning. Consensus for this afternoon is storms will
remain southeast of MSP, so did remove the TS mention from the
afternoon we had in the 06z TAF. Low confidence on cigs today,
but RAP soundings support cigs down to as low as 012 from about
16z to 04z. Want higher confidence in how widespread the lower
clouds will be this morning before getting too pessimistic with
the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...Chc mrng MVFR/IFR cigs. Wind E 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
107 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
091000-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
107 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorm chances will continue through the day for southern
and eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. An isolated strong
to severe storm will be possible, with large hail and damaging
wind gusts being the primary threats. In addition, some storms
will contain locally heavy downpours, with the threat for some
urban and small stream flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

This weekend, heat and humidity are expected to build back into
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Afternoon heat index values near 100
Sunday through Tuesday will lead to an increased risk for
dangerous heat late this weekend into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Formal SKYWARN spotter activation is not expected to be needed
for this afternoon and evening but self-activation is welcome.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
931 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 AM     Rain             3 W Wahkon              46.13N 93.59W
07/08/2026  M3.40 Inch       Mille Lacs         MN   Public

&&

CTG