Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
139 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon & evening. The
  strongest storms could contain large hail & gusty winds,
  especially along & north of Interstate 94.

- Seasonable cool & dry this weekend.

- Below normal temperatures continue next week. Rain chances
  return mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Light rain showers are exiting the area across western Minnesota
while another band of light rain is moving across the I-90
corridor across far-southern Minnesota. However, our area of
interest this afternoon will be with the building cumulus field
across northwest & west-central Minnesota. Instability isn't
going to be great after the rain & clouds this morning, but
very steep mid-level lapse rates mean than surface-based CAPE
of 500-1000 J/kg should develop this afternoon & allow for these
budding showers to build into scattered thunderstorms by mid-
afternoon. Impressive wind shear for mid-June will be in place
over the area as a jetstreak over the Upper Midwest provides
around 60 kts of 0-6km shear across MN & WI. However the weaker
instability means that any thunderstorms probably wont be able
to realize all of this deep shear, so effective shear values
look to be on the order of 30-40 kts across central MN & western
WI where we expect the most widespread storm coverage. This
still plenty of shear for storms to become organized, so we are
expecting a few strong to severe thunderstorms later this
afternoon with large hail the primary threat followed by
sporadic damaging wind gusts. The main window for these severe
thunderstorms looks to be between 3 PM to 7 PM, with the Storm
Prediction Center highlighting an area along the I-94 Corridor
of eastern MN & western WI with a Level 2/5 (Slight Risk) threat
of severe storms. The storms will begin to weaken as we get
closer to sunset, with the thunderstorms threat mostly over with
across western Wisconsin by 8-9 PM.

Weak high pressure moves into the region behind today's system,
setting up a seasonably cool & dry weekend with highs generally
in the low to mid 70s expected. Can't rule out a coupe, isolated
rain showers across western Wisconsin from the cumulus field
Saturday afternoon, but better chances for light rain look to
come Sunday morning across far-southern Minnesota. However, the
main threat for rain looks to set up to our south over Iowa.

Looking into next week: zonal flow aloft should extend the quiet
weekend weather into Monday, but building troughing over the
Great Lakes brings an increased chance for rain Tuesday into
Wednesday. This mainly looks to be another system with
widespread rain showers & a few isolated thunderstorms, & the
threat for any severe weather or heavy rain is low. Northwest
flow persists through the week in response to the troughing
over the Great Lakes & building ridging over the west, which
will keep temperatures seasonably cool through the week. Models
hint at various transient disturbances embedded within the
northwest flow that could lead to low chances for precipitation
later in the week, but mostly quiet weather looks to be the
forecast until next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR conditions through most of the period. However, another
round of scattered showers and storms expected late this
afternoon and evening where reductions in flight categories will
be possible if TSRA impact terminals. TEMPO groups remain in
the TAF for MSP, AXN, STC, RNH, and EAU for TSRA. Main impacts
will be gusty winds, reductions to VIS due to moderate to heavy
rainfall, lowing CIGs, and lightning.

Winds will increase through the afternoon out of the W/NW at
10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots, terminals across western MN
could see gusts to 25 knots during the afternoon and early
evening.

Shower/storms activity will quickly decrease after 01z this
evening will skies becoming SKC by 02z to 03z with winds
becoming light at 3-7 knots, out of the NW.

KMSP...Scattered showers and storms possible late this afternoon
and evening. TEMPO group remains in the TAF for -TSRA. If TSRA
impacts terminals, reductions in flight categories will be
likely. Shower and storm activity will diminish after 01Z.
Winds this afternoon will be out of the W at 9-13 knots with
gusts to 20 knots possible, becoming NW late this evening at
5-10 knots. Skies will become SKC to FEW around sunset.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN... VFR. Wind ENE at 5-10 kts.
MON... VFR. Wind NE at 5-10 kts.
TUE... VFR. Chc of MVFR/TSRA. Wind SSW at 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...LPR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
300 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
200800-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
300 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, most numerous
across central and eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. There
is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms capable of
marginally severe hail and gusty winds into the early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Borghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
159 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

MNZ043-191945-
Morrison MN-
159 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MORRISON COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 159 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Lastrup, or 15 miles northeast of Little Falls,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Harding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent
thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be
struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now!

&&

LAT...LON 4611 9424 4616 9423 4616 9389 4603 9390
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 280DEG 11KT 4614 9417

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
225 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

MNZ043-044-192015-
Morrison MN-Mille Lacs MN-
225 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MILLE LACS AND EAST
CENTRAL MORRISON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 225 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Vineland, or 23 miles east of Little Falls, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Onamia, Isle, Wahkon, Vineland, Hillman, Bayview, Lake Mille Lacs,
  Mille Lacs Kathio State Park, Rum River State Forest and Father
  Hennepin State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

If on or near Lake Mille Lacs get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be
caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4601 9390 4616 9389 4616 9381 4624 9381
      4625 9353 4625 9343 4598 9343 4598 9352
      4589 9352
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 285DEG 24KT 4609 9390

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
318 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

MNZ042-043-050-192100-
Morrison MN-Todd MN-Benton MN-
318 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BENTON...
SOUTHEASTERN TODD AND SOUTHWESTERN MORRISON COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM
CDT...

At 318 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Long Prairie, or 20 miles west of Little Falls, moving east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Little Falls, Long Prairie, Royalton, Upsala, Swanville, Bowlus,
  Flensburg, Rice, Round Prairie, Sobieski, Burtrum, Elmdale, Charles
  A. Lindbergh State Park, Little Falls Airport and Long Prairie
  Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4590 9491 4604 9485 4599 9414 4574 9425
      4574 9426 4575 9427 4576 9427 4576 9426
      4577 9427 4578 9427 4578 9443
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 284DEG 32KT 4595 9478

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDH