Flood Watch 1, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
615 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

 - Increasing concern for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall
   leading to flash flooding over the next several days,
   especially across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama.

 - HIGH Risk for Rip Currents today through at least Thursday for
   coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Overall forecast remains generally on track. Over the next few
hours, there will likely be an increased probability for moderate
to heavy showers and storms across the Florida Panhandle as a
couple clusters of storms collide and lift north out of the marine
waters. These will likely produce heavy rainfall, primarily east
of Pensacola, but given this portion of the forecast area has
been notably drier flash flooding is not expected at this time.
However, if storms can train over some of our urban areas in the
Florida Panhandle that could cause some minor flooding issues.
MM/25

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Convection over the Gulf has been the focus of our attention this
evening with the first batch of storms just now reaching the Florida
panhandle beaches. Another round of storms is sitting 50+ nautical
miles offshore and looks to slide generally northward over the next
few hours, likely approaching the coastal communities by roughly
09z. There's been a signal in several of the CAMs over the past 12
hours that convection will also likely begin flaring up somewhere
west of I-65 (across the southern tier of counties) between roughly
09-12z with the bulk of the convection developing and sliding into
the region by late morning into the afternoon hours. A few strong to
severe storms are certainly possible with the storms on Memorial
Day, however, flooding is the bigger concern. The recent 00z HREF
probability-matched mean (PMM) for QPF shows a few bullseyes of of 4-
7 inches of rain across portions of southeast Mississippi and
southwest Alabama this afternoon into the early evening hours. The
bullseyes have shifted run-to-run, but there's a general trend that
somewhere west of I-65 could easily rack up 3+ inches of rain this
afternoon and evening.

Furthermore, the main concern over the coming days remains flooding.
While we don't anticipate widespread flooding issues, we do
anticipate multiple rounds of storms producing very heavy rainfall
which could lead to flash flooding. The potential for flooding will
be highly dependent on the rainfall rates along with the movement of
the storms (slower storms or storms that repeatedly move over the
same locations will be problematic). Storms over the next few days
will easily be capable of producing 1-2 inches of rain in a short
period of time. Given the significant flooding on Friday in central
Mobile County and the very saturated soils, that area in particular
will be highly susceptible to additional flash flooding in the
coming days.

A wet pattern will persist through the week as the area remains on
the western periphery of a ridge sitting over the western Atlantic.
Deep onshore flow prevails with PWATs surging to over 2.0 inches at
times this week. Multiple subtle shortwaves will ride through the
flow aloft, providing ample ascent for the development of showers
and storms throughout the week. Heavy rain is the predominant
concern, although we cannot rule out a few strong to potentially
severe storms with gusty downburst winds each afternoon. For now, we
are holding off on a Flood Watch given the low confidence in exactly
where these storms might set up across the area. However, a Watch
could be on the table at some point if our confidence in locations
increases (as we don't want to issue a Watch for the entire area
when some locations may not rain much at all).

Beach Forecast - Given the consistent onshore flow signal over the
coming days, the risk for rip currents will be HIGH for the Memorial
Day holiday through through at least Thursday for the coastal
Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Offshore storms will only act
to amplify the surf and rip currents each day. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

MVFR to IFR flight category prevails across the region this
morning. Expect this to remain prevalent as numerous showers and
thunderstorms develop across the region. Temporary reductions to
LIFR are possible underneath the heaviest storms. Winds remain out
of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 knots. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow will persist through the forecast.
Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet through this afternoon,
increasing to 3 to 4 feet tonight into midweek. No impacts are
expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near
thunderstorms. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      81  71  82  72 /  90  70  90  40
Pensacola   82  73  82  74 /  90  70  90  30
Destin      82  74  83  74 /  90  60  80  30
Evergreen   80  69  81  70 / 100  60 100  20
Waynesboro  80  69  80  70 / 100  60 100  40
Camden      79  68  79  69 /  90  60 100  30
Crestview   82  70  84  70 /  90  60  80  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
630 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 4 W Destin              30.40N 86.56W
05/25/2026  M44 MPH          GMZ635             FL   Mesonet

            Weatherflow mesonet site measures marine
            thunderstorm wind gust to 44 mph or 38
            knots.

&&

MM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
632 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 SSW Eglin Afb         30.43N 86.56W
05/25/2026  M41 MPH          Okaloosa           FL   Mesonet

            Tempest mesonet site measures marine
            thunderstorm wind gust to 36 knots (41 mph).

&&

MM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
641 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 N Hurlburt Field      30.44N 86.69W
05/25/2026  M44 MPH          Okaloosa           FL   AWOS

            Hurlburt Field measures marine thunderstorm
            wind gust to 38 knots (44 mph).

&&

MM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
651 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 NNE Hurlburt Field    30.43N 86.69W
05/25/2026  M44 MPH          Okaloosa           FL   AWOS

            Corrects previous marine tstm wind report
            from 2 N Hurlburt Field. Hurlburt Field
            measures marine thunderstorm wind gust to 38
            knots (44 mph).

&&

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
704 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

MSZ075-078-079-251245-
Stone MS-Perry MS-George MS-
704 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN GEORGE...SOUTHERN
PERRY AND STONE COUNTIES THROUGH 745 AM CDT...

At 703 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Perkinston, or 6 miles south of Wiggins, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Wiggins, Perkinston, and McHenry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 8917 3091 8914 3094 8914 3114 8894
      3073 8874 3074 8888 3068 8889 3068 8916
      3080 8928
TIME...MOT...LOC 1203Z 227DEG 23KT 3077 8914

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
754 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

MSZ075-076-251345-
Perry MS-Greene MS-
754 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PERRY AND NORTHWESTERN GREENE
COUNTIES THROUGH 845 AM CDT...

At 754 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Rock Hill to 6 miles southwest of
Beaumont. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Richton, Beaumont, and New Augusta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3143 8915 3143 8876 3099 8894 3099 8914
      3100 8914 3112 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 1254Z 210DEG 26KT 3111 8932 3110 8899

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM