Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
306 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

 - Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to possible flash
   flooding will occur through at least Tuesday.

 - HIGH Risk for Rip Currents through at least Thursday for
   coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

KMOB and KEVX radars are detecting numerous to widespread showers
with embedded isolated to scattered thunderstorms across our
coastal area and the Gulf. Radar precipitation estimates and
surface observations are showing between 1.5 to 3.0 inches have
fallen across our coastal communities within the past 12 hours,
with up to 5 inches for western Stone county MS, where a Flash
Flood Warning remains in effect. These values taper off further
inland as the deeper convection wanes and rainfall rates drop.
Several banding features over the Gulf associated with an upper
shortwave being depicted on the current synoptic overview will
continue to move northward over the northwest Florida into south
central Alabama through late evening bringing an additional 1 to 3
inches of rain (locally higher) to those areas. Some of the CAMs
are hinting at an additional band of storms possibly developing
further to west over interior southeast Mississippi and southwest
Alabama late this afternoon into early evening bringing an
additional 1 to 2 inches of rain.

Overall, this large shield of precipitation will taper off by mid
to late evening before redevelopment occurs late tonight through
Tuesday morning as the next wave we are monitoring over the north
central Gulf bring another round of widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms to our entire forecast area through
afternoon Tuesday afternoon. The Flash Flood Watch for all of our
zones remains in effect through Tuesday evening. We will continue
to focus our key messaging on the potential of flash flooding our
warning area remains under a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding
flash flood guidance through through Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is
possible with additional widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches, locally as high as 6 inches as PWATs hover above 2 inches.
Instances of flash flooding will occur where banding and
prolonged training of thunderstorms with high precipitation rates
occur.

Beach Forecast - The risk for rip currents will remain HIGH
through at least Thursday for the coastal Alabama and northwest
Florida beaches. Offshore storms will only act to amplify the surf
and rip currents each day. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Widespread showers and storms gradually shift eastward across the
area through this evening leaving isolated to scattered
convection. Showers and storms are anticipated to increase in
coverage again late tonight into Tuesday morning. IFR/MVFR
conditions along with gusty winds will accompany the stronger
storms. Southeasterly winds 5-10 knots diminish this evening, then
a southeasterly flow at 5-10 knots resumes Tuesday morning. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow will persist throughout the week.
Seas will generally be 3 to 4 feet through midweek, occasionally
to 5 feet near thunderstorms. Significant restrictions to
visibility due to periods of heavy rain and locally higher winds
will occur near thunderstorms. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  81  72  85 /  50  90  30  60
Pensacola   74  81  74  84 /  60  80  50  40
Destin      75  83  75  84 /  70  70  60  40
Evergreen   70  80  70  85 /  60  90  30  80
Waynesboro  69  81  70  85 /  50  90  30  90
Camden      68  78  69  84 /  60  90  30  80
Crestview   70  82  70  87 /  60  80  50  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
135 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

FLZ201>204-206-251915-
Escambia Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-
Escambia Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
135 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN OKALOOSA...CENTRAL
SANTA ROSA AND SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 135 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles northwest of Myrtle Grove to 15 miles
south of Pensacola Beach. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Brent, West Pensacola, Ensley, Warrington,
Gonzalez, Pace, Milton, Gulf Breeze, Goulding, Bagdad, Myrtle Grove,
Oriole Beach, Navarre, Jay, Pensacola Beach, Point Baker, Navarre
Beach, and Pea Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3022 8726 3042 8742 3042 8740 3044 8739
      3045 8742 3048 8744 3097 8714 3052 8680
      3045 8680 3045 8674 3038 8669 3028 8679
      3022 8720
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 214DEG 27KT 3046 8737 3012 8710

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH