Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1243 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

 - Increasing concern for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall
   leading to flash flooding over the next several days,
   especially across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama.

 - HIGH Risk for Rip Currents today through at least Thursday for
   coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Convection over the Gulf has been the focus of our attention this
evening with the first batch of storms just now reaching the
Florida panhandle beaches. Another round of storms is sitting 50+
nautical miles offshore and looks to slide generally northward
over the next few hours, likely approaching the coastal
communities by roughly 09z. There's been a signal in several of
the CAMs over the past 12 hours that convection will also likely
begin flaring up somewhere west of I-65 (across the southern tier
of counties) between roughly 09-12z with the bulk of the
convection developing and sliding into the region by late morning
into the afternoon hours. A few strong to severe storms are
certainly possible with the storms on Memorial Day, however,
flooding is the bigger concern. The recent 00z HREF probability-
matched mean (PMM) for QPF shows a few bullseyes of of 4- 7 inches
of rain across portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest
Alabama this afternoon into the early evening hours. The bullseyes
have shifted run-to-run, but there's a general trend that
somewhere west of I-65 could easily rack up 3+ inches of rain this
afternoon and evening.

Furthermore, the main concern over the coming days remains
flooding. While we don't anticipate widespread flooding issues, we
do anticipate multiple rounds of storms producing very heavy
rainfall which could lead to flash flooding. The potential for
flooding will be highly dependent on the rainfall rates along with
the movement of the storms (slower storms or storms that
repeatedly move over the same locations will be problematic).
Storms over the next few days will easily be capable of producing
1-2 inches of rain in a short period of time. Given the
significant flooding on Friday in central Mobile County and the
very saturated soils, that area in particular will be highly
susceptible to additional flash flooding in the coming days.

A wet pattern will persist through the week as the area remains on
the western periphery of a ridge sitting over the western
Atlantic. Deep onshore flow prevails with PWATs surging to over
2.0 inches at times this week. Multiple subtle shortwaves will
ride through the flow aloft, providing ample ascent for the
development of showers and storms throughout the week. Heavy rain
is the predominant concern, although we cannot rule out a few
strong to potentially severe storms with gusty downburst winds
each afternoon. For now, we are holding off on a Flood Watch given
the low confidence in exactly where these storms might set up
across the area. However, a Watch could be on the table at some
point if our confidence in locations increases (as we don't want
to issue a Watch for the entire area when some locations may not
rain much at all).

Beach Forecast - Given the consistent onshore flow signal over the
coming days, the risk for rip currents will be HIGH for the
Memorial Day holiday through through at least Thursday for the
coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Offshore storms
will only act to amplify the surf and rip currents each day. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Widespread showers and storms gradually shift eastward across the
area through this evening leaving isolated to scattered
convection. Showers and storms are anticipated to increase in
coverage again late tonight into Tuesday morning. IFR/MVFR
conditions along with gusty winds will accompany the stronger
storms. Southeasterly winds 5-10 knots diminish this evening, then
a southeasterly flow at 5-10 knots resumes Tuesday morning. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow will persist through the forecast.
Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet through this afternoon,
increasing to 3 to 4 feet tonight into midweek. No impacts are
expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near
thunderstorms. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  81  72  85 /  50  90  30  60
Pensacola   74  81  74  84 /  60  80  50  40
Destin      75  83  75  84 /  70  70  60  40
Evergreen   70  80  70  85 /  60  90  30  80
Waynesboro  69  81  70  85 /  50  90  30  90
Camden      68  78  69  84 /  60  90  30  80
Crestview   70  82  70  87 /  60  80  50  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
754 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

MSZ075-076-251345-
Perry MS-Greene MS-
754 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PERRY AND NORTHWESTERN GREENE
COUNTIES THROUGH 845 AM CDT...

At 754 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Rock Hill to 6 miles southwest of
Beaumont. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Richton, Beaumont, and New Augusta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3143 8915 3143 8876 3099 8894 3099 8914
      3100 8914 3112 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 1254Z 210DEG 26KT 3111 8932 3110 8899

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
135 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

FLZ201>204-206-251915-
Escambia Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-
Escambia Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
135 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN OKALOOSA...CENTRAL
SANTA ROSA AND SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 135 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles northwest of Myrtle Grove to 15 miles
south of Pensacola Beach. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Brent, West Pensacola, Ensley, Warrington,
Gonzalez, Pace, Milton, Gulf Breeze, Goulding, Bagdad, Myrtle Grove,
Oriole Beach, Navarre, Jay, Pensacola Beach, Point Baker, Navarre
Beach, and Pea Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3022 8726 3042 8742 3042 8740 3044 8739
      3045 8742 3048 8744 3097 8714 3052 8680
      3045 8680 3045 8674 3038 8669 3028 8679
      3022 8720
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 214DEG 27KT 3046 8737 3012 8710

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH