River Flood Warning 16, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
302 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

 - Flash flooding remains a concern over the next several days,
   especially along and northwest of I-65, with multiple rounds of
   heavy rainfall.

 - Moderate Rip Current Risk continues through Memorial Day for
   coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. The risk
   increases to HIGH Monday night through at least mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

As the saying goes "Timing is everything". Unfortunately,
forecaster confidence on the timing aspect concerning the onset
and dissipation of the rounds of moderate to heavy rain is low.
Not only has the timing between the various models (including
CAMS) not improved, the spread between the various ensembles
within the models is not helping matters. For example; we are
finding the spread in 24 hour QPF as high as 2.5 inches, and the
timing spread as much as 5 hours just in the near term. Run-to-run
consistency has also presented challenges.

Most of the convective flare-ups have been driven by enhanced
mid/upper ascent and not so much diurnally driven as we saw from
the MCS that impacted our area late last night and early this
morning. A continuous fetch of mid/upper impulses and shortwave
energy will continue to move in a deep southwesterly flow over our
region between the ridge to our east and the trough to our west,
but again it is difficult to pin down the timing. Current radar is
detecting only a smattering of showers and a storm or two, and we
do expect this to continue through the evening hours. Looking at
the current synoptic overview, there are at least two shortwaves
upstream that we are monitoring. The first should bring another
MCS that will move northeastward into our marine area by mid-
evening, similar in nature to the last event. This complex of
storms is expected to be slightly further east and affect mainly
northwest Florida after midnight, although secondary band may
reach coastal Alabama. By daybreak, numerous to widespread showers
and storms will advance inland over our entire CWA during the
morning hours, with coverage decreasing for our coastal
communities in the afternoon. The second wave should bring another
round of showers and storms into the forecast area after midnight
Monday night and again spread northward to encompass the entire
CWA through at least mid-afternoon Tuesday. Additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms will occur through the remainder of the
week as the synoptic pattern remains unchanged.

We will continue to focus our key messaging on the potential of
flash flooding as much of our warning area remains under a Slight
Risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance on the Day 1-3
Excessive Rain Outlooks (ERO). Heavy rainfall is possible with
additional widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, locally
as high as 6 inches as PWATs hover around 2 inches. Instances of
flash flooding will occur where banding and prolonged training of
thunderstorms with high precipitation rates occur. As mentioned
during yesterday's discussion, we will hold off on issuing any
flash flood watches as recovery times between the events should
allow for waters to recede, or until our confidence on placement
of the banding and prolonged training of thunderstorms increases.

Beach Forecast - Risk for rip currents is MODERATE through
Memorial Day, but quickly increases to a HIGH risk Monday night
through at least the middle of the week. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Isolated to scattered convection may become numerous over interior
areas this afternoon, then scattered convection is possible this
evening. The coverage of convection is anticipated to increase
late tonight into Monday morning. Gusty winds and IFR conditions
will accompany the stronger storms. Otherwise, mainly VFR
conditions this afternoon and early evening lower to IFR/MVFR
overnight with similar conditions persisting into Monday morning.
Southerly winds 5-10 knots become light and variable this evening,
the a southeasterly flow at 5-10 knots develops Monday morning.
/29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow will persist through the forecast.
Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet through Monday afternoon,
increasing to 3 to 4 feet Monday night into midweek. No impacts
are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible
near thunderstorms. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  82  71  82 /  60  70  50  90
Pensacola   74  82  73  82 /  70  70  60  80
Destin      74  83  74  83 /  60  70  60  70
Evergreen   70  82  69  82 /  50  70  40  90
Waynesboro  69  80  69  81 /  40  70  50  90
Camden      68  80  68  80 /  50  80  60  90
Crestview   71  84  70  84 /  50  70  60  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&