River Flood Warning 7, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
652 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday evening with
  pockets of heavy rainfall and high hourly rainfall rates
  expected at times.

- Monitoring any lingering spin associated with the tropical
  disturbance over Mexico through mid to late week as well as a disturbance
  over Texas panhandle Friday into Saturday that could continue
  our rain chances

- Warm and humid conditions persist with elevated heat indices
  during the second half of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

As the front continues trekking southward we will see chances for
showers and thunderstorms continue to increase overnight out ahead
of it. Eventually this front looks to stall somewhere either just
north of our region or within it. Still lots of uncertainty on
where and when it stalls out. Wherever it does, we could see showers
and storms continue to develop along it as abundant tropical
moisture from the disturbance now located in Mexico creeps closer.
Currently PWATs are in the 2 to 2.4in range across most of our area
so the moisture is certainly there. Any thunderstorms that can tap
into this moisture will be capable of producing torrential downpours
with 2-3 inch rates per hour being possible. With the front stalling
and rich tropical moisture present we could see some hefty rainfall
totals overnight and through the day Monday as steering for storms
will be very weak leading to possibility of flash flooding. Hence we
went ahead and issued a Flood Watch earlier that remains in effect
now through Tuesday evening as soils remain saturated from the
previous few weeks. Additionally, we could see widespread rainfall
amounts of 1-3 inches with some areas that see repeated rounds of
heavy rainfall receiving up to and above 8 inches. Flash flooding
along with responses in area rivers and creeks from runoff will be
possible near and downstream of any of those bullseyes of higher
totals. Avoid low water crossings and turn around, don't drown!

Moisture will continue to be plentiful with recent Hi-Res guidance
continuing to show pockets of heavier rainfall totals continuing
into Tuesday somewhere across our CWA(every model has a different
solution) Eventually rain chances should begin to shift further
south and east through the day as the front begins to move.

Regarding temperatures Monday with numerous showers and storms
likely we should see highs drop a bit with mid to upper 80s more
likely and heat indices near the upper 90s to near 100 in any of the
areas where some sun breaks out. However with the increased moisture
it will still feel quite warm and downright muggy for many. TuesdaY
could be a few degrees warmer depending on if we see more peaks of
sunshine. Heat indices will once again be in the upper 90s to near
100.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Abundant moisture remains across the area heading into Tuesday
evening with most rain and storm chances sliding further
southeastward across the Coastal Plains and the TX Coast. Rain
chances look to continue at least for the Coastal Plains as leftover
spin in the mid-levels of the atmosphere from the disturbance
currently meandering across Mexico slowly lifts northeastward.
However there still remains considerable uncertainty regarding this
tropical disturbance and where its remains eventually end up during
midweek. If it tracks closer to our area rain and storm chances
would likely increase further westward through the week whereas a
track more along or just off the TX Coast would keep chances mainly
confined over our Coastal Plains areas. If the more inland scenario
plays out then we could be looking at a significant increase for
heavier rainfall and the flash flooding threat due to recent
saturation over the prior days. However, if the track is more along
the Coast then we would need to focus more on hazardous heat with
higher heat indices likely across the west and central parts of our
area.

To complicate matters even further, several models continue
indicating an upper level disturbance located within northwesterly
flow aloft across the Texas panhandle that could make its way
towards Central Texas sometime during the Friday into the Saturday
timeframe. This would continue to aggravate soils and increase
potential flooding concerns across the region as more showers and
thunderstorms could occur as this disturbance tracks over us.

Regarding temperatures, by midweek we should warm up again with
highs in the 90s however it will still be humid as moisture
continues to remain across the area especially with any showers and
heavy rainfall that occurs from earlier in the week. Thus the
prospects for heat remains albeit trending downward as more
disturbances look to impact our area. It will still feel very warm
however as abundant moisture sticks around. With highs in the low
90s we could still see heat indices anywhere from 100 to 109
degrees. Remember to continue to practice safe heat safety.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

MVFR and IFR conditions are forecast to remain across the local
terminals for most of the next 24 hour period. Heavy rainfall,
reduced visibility, and cloud to ground lightning are anticipated
throughout the day and night times as rounds of showers and storms
affect South Central Texas. A northeast to east wind flow is
forecast to dominate the local area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              82  74  87  74 /  70  30  40  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  82  74  86  74 /  80  30  50  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     83  73  85  73 /  80  40  50  10
Burnet Muni Airport            80  71  86  72 /  60  20  30   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           86  73  91  74 /  60  20  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  72  86  73 /  60  30  50  10
Hondo Muni Airport             83  72  86  72 /  80  40  40   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        82  73  85  73 /  80  40  50  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   82  74  84  74 /  90  60  60  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       83  74  85  74 /  80  40  50  10
Stinson Muni Airport           84  74  85  74 /  80  50  50  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for TXZ171>173-183>194-
202>209-217>225-228.

&&

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...17

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
645 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     Flash Flood      1 NE Helotes            29.57N 98.68W
06/15/2026                   Bexar              TX   Broadcast Media

            Numerous stranded vehicles and water rescues
            ongoing in NW side of San Antonio.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
659 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     Flash Flood      San Antonio             29.43N 98.49W
06/15/2026                   Bexar              TX   County Official

            Above 35 low water crossings now closed due
            to flooding across Bexar County and San
            Antonio metro area.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
711 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 AM     Flash Flood      4 SSW Jollyville        30.39N 97.78W
06/15/2026                   Travis             TX   Broadcast Media

            Spicewood Springs Road impassable due to
            flood waters along with a large log blocking
            the road.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
715 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 AM     Flash Flood      Round Mountain          30.43N 98.34W
06/15/2026                   Blanco             TX   Emergency Mngr

            Round Closures in Round Mountain on 962 E
            and W.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
720 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     Flash Flood      5 S Sisterdale          29.91N 98.72W
06/15/2026                   Kendall            TX   Fire Dept/Rescue

            FM 1376 at Wasp Creek had pavement wash out
            due to flooding. Road remains closed.

&&

MB