Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

066 
WGUS74 KEWX 151126
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
626 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

TXC019-385-151136-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-260615T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bandera TX-Real TX-
626 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN BANDERA AND 
SOUTHEASTERN REAL COUNTIES...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT Tuesday for a 
portion of south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2962 9977 2962 9963 2963 9946 2963 9943
      2956 9931 2930 9930 2930 9941 2930 9982

$$

TXC325-463-151215-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-260615T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Medina TX-Uvalde TX-
626 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 AM CDT THIS 
MORNING FOR WEST CENTRAL MEDINA AND NORTHEASTERN UVALDE COUNTIES...

At 626 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Sabinal, Knippa, Utopia, Concan and Garner State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 2962 9977 2962 9963 2963 9946 2963 9943
      2956 9931 2930 9930 2930 9941 2930 9982

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

MM

830 
WGUS74 KEWX 151159
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
659 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

TXC325-463-151209-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-260615T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Medina TX-Uvalde TX-
659 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL MEDINA AND NORTHEASTERN 
UVALDE COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY...

&&

LAT...LON 2962 9977 2962 9963 2963 9946 2963 9943
      2956 9931 2930 9930 2930 9941 2930 9982

$$

MM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
135 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday evening with
  pockets of heavy rainfall and high hourly rainfall rates
  expected at times.

- Monitoring any lingering spin associated with the tropical
  disturbance over Mexico through mid to late week as well as a disturbance
  over Texas panhandle Friday into Saturday that could continue
  our rain chances

- Warm and humid conditions persist with elevated heat indices
  during the second half of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

As the front continues trekking southward we will see chances for
showers and thunderstorms continue to increase overnight out ahead
of it. Eventually this front looks to stall somewhere either just
north of our region or within it. Still lots of uncertainty on
where and when it stalls out. Wherever it does, we could see showers
and storms continue to develop along it as abundant tropical
moisture from the disturbance now located in Mexico creeps closer.
Currently PWATs are in the 2 to 2.4in range across most of our area
so the moisture is certainly there. Any thunderstorms that can tap
into this moisture will be capable of producing torrential downpours
with 2-3 inch rates per hour being possible. With the front stalling
and rich tropical moisture present we could see some hefty rainfall
totals overnight and through the day Monday as steering for storms
will be very weak leading to possibility of flash flooding. Hence we
went ahead and issued a Flood Watch earlier that remains in effect
now through Tuesday evening as soils remain saturated from the
previous few weeks. Additionally, we could see widespread rainfall
amounts of 1-3 inches with some areas that see repeated rounds of
heavy rainfall receiving up to and above 8 inches. Flash flooding
along with responses in area rivers and creeks from runoff will be
possible near and downstream of any of those bullseyes of higher
totals. Avoid low water crossings and turn around, don't drown!

Moisture will continue to be plentiful with recent Hi-Res guidance
continuing to show pockets of heavier rainfall totals continuing
into Tuesday somewhere across our CWA(every model has a different
solution) Eventually rain chances should begin to shift further
south and east through the day as the front begins to move.

Regarding temperatures Monday with numerous showers and storms
likely we should see highs drop a bit with mid to upper 80s more
likely and heat indices near the upper 90s to near 100 in any of the
areas where some sun breaks out. However with the increased moisture
it will still feel quite warm and downright muggy for many. TuesdaY
could be a few degrees warmer depending on if we see more peaks of
sunshine. Heat indices will once again be in the upper 90s to near
100.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Abundant moisture remains across the area heading into Tuesday
evening with most rain and storm chances sliding further
southeastward across the Coastal Plains and the TX Coast. Rain
chances look to continue at least for the Coastal Plains as leftover
spin in the mid-levels of the atmosphere from the disturbance
currently meandering across Mexico slowly lifts northeastward.
However there still remains considerable uncertainty regarding this
tropical disturbance and where its remains eventually end up during
midweek. If it tracks closer to our area rain and storm chances
would likely increase further westward through the week whereas a
track more along or just off the TX Coast would keep chances mainly
confined over our Coastal Plains areas. If the more inland scenario
plays out then we could be looking at a significant increase for
heavier rainfall and the flash flooding threat due to recent
saturation over the prior days. However, if the track is more along
the Coast then we would need to focus more on hazardous heat with
higher heat indices likely across the west and central parts of our
area.

To complicate matters even further, several models continue
indicating an upper level disturbance located within northwesterly
flow aloft across the Texas panhandle that could make its way
towards Central Texas sometime during the Friday into the Saturday
timeframe. This would continue to aggravate soils and increase
potential flooding concerns across the region as more showers and
thunderstorms could occur as this disturbance tracks over us.

Regarding temperatures, by midweek we should warm up again with
highs in the 90s however it will still be humid as moisture
continues to remain across the area especially with any showers and
heavy rainfall that occurs from earlier in the week. Thus the
prospects for heat remains albeit trending downward as more
disturbances look to impact our area. It will still feel very warm
however as abundant moisture sticks around. With highs in the low
90s we could still see heat indices anywhere from 100 to 109
degrees. Remember to continue to practice safe heat safety.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A very active night ahead at area terminals. Opted to continue
with the status quo, but to add prevailing TSRA at AUS through 09Z
and introduce TEMPO groups instead of PROB30 groups at SAT and SSF
through sunrise. Low confidence in afternoon storm coverage at
this time as well as the evolution of storms for Monday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              83  74  87  74 /  90  40  60  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  83  74  86  74 /  90  50  60  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     83  73  85  73 /  90  70  60  10
Burnet Muni Airport            80  71  86  72 /  90  30  30   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           87  73  91  74 /  80  30  20   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        82  72  86  73 /  90  30  50  10
Hondo Muni Airport             83  72  86  72 /  90  60  60   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        83  73  85  73 /  90  60  60  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   83  74  84  74 /  80  70  80  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       84  74  85  74 /  90  70  70  10
Stinson Muni Airport           84  74  85  74 /  90  70  70  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for TXZ171>173-183>194-
202>209-217>225-228.

&&

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...MMM