Alert archive / Texas / River Flood Warnings in 2026

River Flood Warning 39, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

July 16, 2026Blanco County, Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued this river flood warning at Jul 16, 2026, 7:33 AM CDT for Blanco County, Texas. It took effect at Jul 16, 2026, 1:50 PM CDT. It was in force for 20 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 16, 2026, 7:33 AM CDT (12:33 UTC)
In effect from
Jul 16, 2026, 1:50 PM CDT
Expired
Jul 17, 2026, 9:54 AM CDT
In force
20 hr
Issued by
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Moderate

County Blanco County, TX

The radar

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Pedernales River at Johnson City (JOCT2). The gauge peaked at 24.67 ft at Jul 16, 2026, 4:00 PM CDT.

actionminormoderatemajor1015202507/1607/1707/18
Action stage
13 ft
Minor stage
14 ft
Moderate stage
17 ft
Major stage
19 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 08153500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

484 
WGUS44 KEWX 161233
FLWEWX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
733 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio TX has issued 
a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Texas...

  Pedernales River At Johnson City affecting Blanco County.

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration for the following rivers in Texas...

  Pedernales River At Fredericksburg affecting Blanco and Gillespie 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

To escape rising water, take the shortest path to higher ground.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight by 145 AM CDT.

&&

TXC031-170645-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0039.260716T1937Z-260717T2251Z/
/JOCT2.2.ER.260716T1937Z.260717T0000Z.260717T1050Z.NO/
733 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO TOMORROW 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Pedernales River at Johnson City.

* WHEN...From this afternoon to tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding reaches secondary 
  roads, crossings and low bridges. Low areas of LBJ National Park 
  upstream are flooded. Swimmers and recreationists should leave the 
  river downstream in Pedernales Falls State Park.
  At 17.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding makes secondary roads, 
  bridges and low crossings very dangerous. Swimmers and 
  recreationists should move from the flood plain downstream in 
  Pedernales Falls State Park. Near the USGS 1:2 year flood.
  At 19.0 feet, Major flooding makes secondary and primary roads 
  below Stonewall to Lake Travis very dangerous. Low park areas 
  downstream in Pedernales Falls State Park flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 11.7 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 13.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this afternoon to a crest of 18.9 feet this evening. It will
    then fall below flood stage late tonight.
  - Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    19.3 feet on 05/24/2015.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

                Fld   Observed           Forecasts (8 am CDT)     
Location        Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Pedernales River
Johnson City    14.0  11.7  Thu 7 am CDT 12.8  10.9  10.7         


&&

LAT...LON 3026 9841 3034 9841 3037 9818 3046 9809
      3041 9802 3031 9812


$$

TXC031-171-170645-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0038.260716T1354Z-260717T1018Z/
/FRBT2.2.ER.260716T1354Z.260716T1700Z.260716T2218Z.NO/
733 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Pedernales River at Fredericksburg.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 22.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding floods secondary 
  roads and bridges from the headwaters downstream to below LBJ 
  National Park. The Park Road 49 bridge in LBJ National Park 
  floods. Fencing and signs are damaged in LBJ National Park.
  At 25.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding covers many secondary 
  roads and bridges from the headwaters to Stonewall making them 
  very dangerous to motorists. Low areas of LBJ National Park and 
  the Park Road 49 bridge are flooded.
  At 27.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding is near the USGS 1:5 year 
  level. Secondary roads and bridges from the headwaters above 
  Harper to below Stonewall are flooded and dangerous. Significant 
  damage to fences, signs, and roads occurs downstream in LBJ 
  National Park near Stonewall.
  At 29.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding inundates secondary roads 
  and bridges from the headwaters above Harper to below Stonewall. 
  Fences and signs are destroyed in LBJ National Park at Stonewall 
  as flow is well into the flood plain and many feet over the Park 
  Road 49 bridge.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 16.3 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 12.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this morning to a crest of 29.3 feet this afternoon. It will
    then fall below flood stage late this afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    27.4 feet on 07/05/2002.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

                Fld   Observed           Forecasts (8 am CDT)     
Location        Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Pedernales River
Fredericksburg  22.0  16.3  Thu 7 am CDT 10.1  8.0   7.7          


&&

LAT...LON 3017 9895 3025 9896 3034 9841 3026 9841


$$

CM
5 follow-up statements
913 
WGUS44 KEWX 161328
FLWEWX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
828 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio TX has issued 
a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Texas...

  Llano River at Llano affecting Llano County.

...Forecast flooding changed from Moderate to Major severity and 
increased in duration for the following rivers in Texas...

  Pedernales River At Fredericksburg affecting Blanco and Gillespie 
  Counties.

  Pedernales River At Johnson City affecting Blanco County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

To escape rising water, take the shortest path to higher ground.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight by 230 AM CDT.

&&

TXC299-170730-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0041.260716T2317Z-260718T0200Z/
/LLAT2.2.ER.260716T2317Z.260717T0200Z.260717T1400Z.NO/
828 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE TOMORROW 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Llano River at Llano.

* WHEN...From this evening to late tomorrow evening.

* IMPACTS...At 12.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding makes secondary 
  roads and low bridges in the flood plain dangerous to motorists 
  including the low water crossing of Ranch Road 3404/Slab Road near 
  Kingsland. Equipment should be moved from low docks and boat ties 
  loosened downstream in Kingsland.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 6.6 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this evening to a crest of 12.3 feet late this evening. It
    will then fall below flood stage late tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    12.1 feet on 05/29/2015.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

           Fld   Observed           Forecasts (8 am CDT)     
Location   Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Llano River
Llano      10.0  6.6   Thu 8 am CDT 10.2  6.9   4.7          


&&

LAT...LON 3067 9896 3075 9896 3079 9852 3058 9824
      3049 9829 3066 9855


$$

TXC031-171-170730-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0038.260716T1328Z-260717T1107Z/
/FRBT2.3.ER.260716T1228Z.260716T1700Z.260716T2307Z.NO/
828 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING TO TOMORROW 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Pedernales River at Fredericksburg.

* WHEN...From this morning to tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 32.0 feet, Widespread major flooding of secondary and 
  primary roads, low bridges and crossings in the headwaters above 
  Fredericksburg make them very dangerous. Destructive flooding at 
  LBJ National Park downstream will be ten feet over the Park Road 
  49 bridge at LBJ National Park. Many park signs and fences are 
  destroyed and park roads damaged. This flow exceeds the USGS 1:10 
  year flood level.
  At 36.0 feet, Major flooding is near the USGS 1:25 year level.  
  Lowest buildings near Highway 87 are threatened as well as the 
  Highway 87 bridge approaches.  Major damage occurs downsteam at 
  LBJ National Park to signs, fences, roads and the Junction 
  School.  Widepread scouring of roads and bridges occurs from the 
  headwaters to below Stonewall.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 28.2 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 12.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:00 AM CDT Thursday was 28.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 33.7
    feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage this
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    34.4 feet on 06/01/1979.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

                Fld   Observed           Forecasts (8 am CDT)     
Location        Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Pedernales River
Fredericksburg  22.0  28.2  Thu 8 am CDT 10.8  8.2   7.8          


&&

LAT...LON 3017 9895 3025 9896 3034 9841 3026 9841


$$

TXC031-170730-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0039.260716T1909Z-260717T2230Z/
/JOCT2.3.ER.260716T1909Z.260717T0100Z.260717T1030Z.NO/
828 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO TOMORROW 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Major flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Pedernales River at Johnson City.

* WHEN...From this afternoon to tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding reaches secondary 
  roads, crossings and low bridges. Low areas of LBJ National Park 
  upstream are flooded. Swimmers and recreationists should leave the 
  river downstream in Pedernales Falls State Park.
  At 17.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding makes secondary roads, 
  bridges and low crossings very dangerous. Swimmers and 
  recreationists should move from the flood plain downstream in 
  Pedernales Falls State Park. Near the USGS 1:2 year flood.
  At 19.0 feet, Major flooding makes secondary and primary roads 
  below Stonewall to Lake Travis very dangerous. Low park areas 
  downstream in Pedernales Falls State Park flood.
  At 22.0 feet, Secondary roads, bridges and crossings are 
  dangerously flooded near the Pedernales River. Low areas of 
  Pedernales Falls State Park are flooded and dangerous. Fencing and 
  roads are damaged or destroyed in the flood plain.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 11.6 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 13.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this afternoon to a crest of 21.1 feet this evening. It will
    then fall below flood stage late tonight.
  - Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    21.4 feet on 05/30/1995.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

                Fld   Observed           Forecasts (8 am CDT)     
Location        Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Pedernales River
Johnson City    14.0  11.6  Thu 8 am CDT 12.6  10.9  10.7         


&&

LAT...LON 3026 9841 3034 9841 3037 9818 3046 9809
      3041 9802 3031 9812


$$

CM
235 
WGUS84 KEWX 161433
FLSEWX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
933 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Pedernales River At Fredericksburg affecting Blanco and Gillespie 
  Counties.

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Pedernales River At Johnson City affecting Blanco County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To escape rising water, take the shortest path to higher ground.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight by 345 AM CDT.

&&

TXC031-171-170845-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-260717T1100Z/
/FRBT2.3.ER.260716T1228Z.260716T1500Z.260716T2300Z.NO/
933 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Pedernales River at Fredericksburg.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 27.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding is near the USGS 
  1:5 year level. Secondary roads and bridges from the headwaters 
  above Harper to below Stonewall are flooded and dangerous. 
  Significant damage to fences, signs, and roads occurs downstream 
  in LBJ National Park near Stonewall.
  At 29.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding inundates secondary roads 
  and bridges from the headwaters above Harper to below Stonewall. 
  Fences and signs are destroyed in LBJ National Park at Stonewall 
  as flow is well into the flood plain and many feet over the Park 
  Road 49 bridge.
  At 32.0 feet, Widespread major flooding of secondary and primary 
  roads, low bridges and crossings in the headwaters above 
  Fredericksburg make them very dangerous. Destructive flooding at 
  LBJ National Park downstream will be ten feet over the Park Road 
  49 bridge at LBJ National Park. Many park signs and fences are 
  destroyed and park roads damaged. This flow exceeds the USGS 1:10 
  year flood level.
  At 36.0 feet, Major flooding is near the USGS 1:25 year level.  
  Lowest buildings near Highway 87 are threatened as well as the 
  Highway 87 bridge approaches.  Major damage occurs downsteam at 
  LBJ National Park to signs, fences, roads and the Junction 
  School.  Widepread scouring of roads and bridges occurs from the 
  headwaters to below Stonewall.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 25.5 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 12.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:15 AM CDT Thursday was 25.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 35.7
    feet late this morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    this evening.
  - Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    34.4 feet on 06/01/1979.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

                Fld   Observed           Forecasts (10 am CDT)    
Location        Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Pedernales River
Fredericksburg  22.0  25.5  Thu 9 am CDT 10.5  8.2   7.8          


&&

LAT...LON 3017 9895 3025 9896 3034 9841 3026 9841


$$

TXC031-170845-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0039.260716T1850Z-260717T2324Z/
/JOCT2.3.ER.260716T1850Z.260717T0000Z.260717T1124Z.NO/
933 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO TOMORROW 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Major flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Pedernales River at Johnson City.

* WHEN...From this afternoon to tomorrow evening.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding reaches secondary 
  roads, crossings and low bridges. Low areas of LBJ National Park 
  upstream are flooded. Swimmers and recreationists should leave the 
  river downstream in Pedernales Falls State Park.
  At 17.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding makes secondary roads, 
  bridges and low crossings very dangerous. Swimmers and 
  recreationists should move from the flood plain downstream in 
  Pedernales Falls State Park. Near the USGS 1:2 year flood.
  At 19.0 feet, Major flooding makes secondary and primary roads 
  below Stonewall to Lake Travis very dangerous. Low park areas 
  downstream in Pedernales Falls State Park flood.
  At 22.0 feet, Secondary roads, bridges and crossings are 
  dangerously flooded near the Pedernales River. Low areas of 
  Pedernales Falls State Park are flooded and dangerous. Fencing and 
  roads are damaged or destroyed in the flood plain.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 11.5 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 13.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this afternoon to a crest of 21.8 feet this evening. It will
    then fall below flood stage tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    21.9 feet on 12/21/1991.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

                Fld   Observed           Forecasts (10 am CDT)    
Location        Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Pedernales River
Johnson City    14.0  11.5  Thu 9 am CDT 12.4  11.0  10.7         


&&

LAT...LON 3026 9841 3034 9841 3037 9818 3046 9809
      3041 9802 3031 9812


$$

CM
680 
WGUS84 KEWX 161955
FLSEWX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
255 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Llano River at Llano affecting Llano County.

  Pedernales River At Johnson City affecting Blanco County.

  Sabinal At Sabinal affecting Uvalde County.

  Nueces River Near Asherton affecting Dimmit County.

  Frio River Below Dry Frio affecting Uvalde County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Pedernales River At Fredericksburg affecting Blanco and Gillespie 
  Counties.

  West Nueces River At Brackettville affecting Kinney and Uvalde 
  Counties.

  Nueces River Below Uvalde affecting Uvalde County.

  Frio River At Concan affecting Uvalde County.

  Frio River Near Derby affecting Frio County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Even 6 inches of fast-moving flood water can knock you off your feet 
and a depth of 2 feet will float your car. Never try to walk, swim, 
or drive through such swift water. If you come upon flood waters, 
stop, turn around and go another way.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

To escape rising water, take the shortest path to higher ground.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight by 530 AM CDT.

&&

TXC299-171400-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-260718T2000Z/
/LLAT2.2.ER.260716T1954Z.260717T0200Z.260718T0800Z.NO/
255 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Llano River at Llano.

* WHEN...Until Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding can swamp boats in 
  the lower Llano River in Kingsland.
  At 12.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding makes secondary roads and 
  low bridges in the flood plain dangerous to motorists including 
  the low water crossing of Ranch Road 3404/Slab Road near 
  Kingsland. Equipment should be moved from low docks and boat ties 
  loosened downstream in Kingsland.
  At 16.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding threatens docks and boats 
  in the flood plain downstream in Kingsland. Secondary roads and 
  bridges will be flooded and dangerous to motorists. Flow exceeds 
  the USGS 1:2 year flood level.
  At 20.0 feet, Flow will be damaging to docks and boats downstream 
  in Kingsland. The lowest secondary roads and bridges will be 
  severely flooded and dangerous. Near the USGS 1:5 year flood level.
  At 23.0 feet, Major lowland flooding makes primary and secondary 
  roads and low bridges near the river and tributaries dangerous. 
  Boats and docks are severely inundated downstream near and in 
  Kingsland. Lowest resorts near the Llano River mouth in Kingsland 
  flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:00 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 5.9 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise to 22.5 feet late this evening
    before gradually falling below flood stage early Saturday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    22.1 feet on 11/17/2004.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

           Fld   Observed           Forecasts (3 pm CDT)     
Location   Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Llano River
Llano      10.0  5.9   Thu 2 pm CDT 16.1  8.1   5.8          


&&

LAT...LON 3067 9896 3075 9896 3079 9852 3058 9824
      3049 9829 3066 9855


$$

TXC031-171400-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-260718T0000Z/
/JOCT2.3.ER.260716T1925Z.260716T2200Z.260717T1200Z.NO/
255 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING...

* WHAT...Major flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Pedernales River at Johnson City.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow evening.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding reaches secondary 
  roads, crossings and low bridges. Low areas of LBJ National Park 
  upstream are flooded. Swimmers and recreationists should leave the 
  river downstream in Pedernales Falls State Park.
  At 17.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding makes secondary roads, 
  bridges and low crossings very dangerous. Swimmers and 
  recreationists should move from the flood plain downstream in 
  Pedernales Falls State Park. Near the USGS 1:2 year flood.
  At 19.0 feet, Major flooding makes secondary and primary roads 
  below Stonewall to Lake Travis very dangerous. Low park areas 
  downstream in Pedernales Falls State Park flood.
  At 22.0 feet, Secondary roads, bridges and crossings are 
  dangerously flooded near the Pedernales River. Low areas of 
  Pedernales Falls State Park are flooded and dangerous. Fencing and 
  roads are damaged or destroyed in the flood plain.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:00 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 11.3 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 13.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 22.9
    feet late this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
    tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    22.9 feet on 05/28/1929.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

                Fld   Observed           Forecasts (3 pm CDT)     
Location        Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Pedernales River
Johnson City    14.0  11.3  Thu 2 pm CDT 12.1  11.1  10.7         


&&

LAT...LON 3026 9841 3034 9841 3037 9818 3046 9809
      3041 9802 3031 9812


$$

TXC031-171-171030-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-260717T1020Z/
/FRBT2.2.ER.260716T1228Z.260716T1425Z.260716T2220Z.NO/
255 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Pedernales River at Fredericksburg.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 25.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding covers many 
  secondary roads and bridges from the headwaters to Stonewall 
  making them very dangerous to motorists. Low areas of LBJ National 
  Park and the Park Road 49 bridge are flooded.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:15 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 25.8 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 12.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will continue a gradual drop below flood
    stage late this afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    25.7 feet on 05/03/1990.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

                Fld   Observed           Forecasts (3 pm CDT)     
Location        Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Pedernales River
Fredericksburg  22.0  17.2  Thu 2 pm CDT 10.6  8.3   7.8          


&&

LAT...LON 3017 9895 3025 9896 3034 9841 3026 9841


$$

TXC271-463-171145-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-260717T1137Z/
/BTVT2.3.ER.260715T1052Z.260716T2000Z.260716T2337Z.NO/
255 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Major flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...West Nueces River at Brackettville.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 20.0 feet, Major lowland flooding four hundred yards 
  wide cuts off livestock and equipment in the flood plain. Flow is 
  to the entrance platform of the gauge house. Many secondary and 
  primary roads downstream are impassable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - There is no current observed data.
  - Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will fall below flood stage this evening
    to 10.4 feet just after midnight tonight. It will then rise
    to 13.0 feet tomorrow morning. It will fall to 2.8 feet early
    Monday afternoon. It will then rise to 4.1 feet early Tuesday
    morning. It will fall again and remain below flood stage.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    20.0 feet on 08/25/1998.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

                 Fld   Observed           Forecasts (3 pm CDT)     
Location         Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

West Nueces River
Brackettville    15.0  MSG   unknown      9.6   6.6   5.2          


&&

LAT...LON 2946 10027 2952 10022 2944 10003 2926 9998
      2931 10013 2942 10012


$$

TXC463-171400-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-260717T1555Z/
/CNCT2.3.ER.260715T1413Z.260716T2100Z.260717T0355Z.NO/
255 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Frio River at Concan.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 21.0 feet, Life threatening flooding through 
  campgrounds below Rio Frio to Concan washes recreational vehicles, 
  autos, gear, and campers downstream. Lowest homes are flooded 
  below Leakey to below Rio Frio. Much of Garner State Park is 
  flooded.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 19.5 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 7.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 2:30 PM CDT Thursday was 19.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise to 21.0 feet late this
    afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late this
    evening to 5.5 feet early Saturday morning. It will rise to
    5.8 feet Saturday evening. It will then fall again and remain
    below flood stage.
  - Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    21.6 feet on 10/28/1996.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

          Fld   Observed           Forecasts (3 pm CDT)     
Location  Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Frio River
Concan    11.0  19.5  Thu 2 pm CDT 5.6   5.8   5.5          


&&

LAT...LON 2951 9975 2951 9967 2943 9962 2929 9962
      2923 9971 2942 9970


$$

TXC463-171400-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-260717T1728Z/
/SABT2.3.ER.260714T1617Z.260717T0000Z.260717T0528Z.NO/
255 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Sabinal at Sabinal.

* WHEN...Until early tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 20.0 feet, Lowland flooding damages crops and floods 
  pastureland cutting off and potentially drowning livestock in low 
  areas of the flood plain. Secondary roads and low bridges flood 
  severely as the flood wave passes downstream.
  At 24.0 feet, Major lowland flooding from the headwaters to the 
  Frio River confluence. Very dangerous to campers upstream near 
  Utopia. Many secondary and primary roads and low bridges are 
  flooded and dangerous.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 16.2 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 1:30 PM CDT Thursday was 16.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will oscillate above flood stage with a
    maximum value of 24.2 feet this evening. It will fall below
    flood stage just after midnight tonight.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
  - Flood History...No available flood history.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

       Fld   Observed           Forecasts (3 pm CDT)     
Locati Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Sabinal
Sabina 12.0  16.2  Thu 1 pm CDT 7.7   8.4   7.4          


&&

LAT...LON 2962 9956 2962 9948 2914 9941 2901 9921
      2894 9925 2910 9949


$$

TXC463-171400-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-260718T0106Z/
/UDET2.3.ER.260714T1540Z.260717T0300Z.260717T1306Z.NO/
255 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING...

* WHAT...Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Frio River below Dry Frio.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow evening.

* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, Major flooding of crop and pastureland, 
  traps livestock and can drown them. Secondary and primary roads 
  and low bridges are flooded and dangerous.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 17.4 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 1:30 PM CDT Thursday was 19.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 21.3
    feet late this evening. It will then fall below flood stage
    tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    20.3 feet on 12/31/1984.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

          Fld   Observed           Forecasts (3 pm CDT)     
Location  Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Frio River
Dry Frio  12.0  17.4  Thu 1 pm CDT 8.3   6.7   5.7          


&&

LAT...LON 2923 9971 2929 9962 2898 9917 2876 9912
      2873 9920 2893 9924


$$

TXC463-171400-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-260720T2200Z/
/UVLT2.3.ER.260715T1735Z.260717T0600Z.260720T1000Z.UU/
255 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Nueces River below Uvalde.

* WHEN...Until Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 25.0 feet, Residents of many low lying homes in 
  Crystal City flood in less than a day from a crest in Uvalde. 
  Roads and bridges are damaged above Barksdale to below Carrizo 
  Springs. Flow ranges from one half mile to four miles wide in the 
  flood plain, trapping livestock and destroying equipment in the 
  flood plain.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 25.2 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 2:30 PM CDT Thursday was 25.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will fall to 24.8 feet late this
    afternoon. It will then rise to 27.3 feet this evening. It
    will fall to 25.3 feet late this evening. It will then rise
    to 27.6 feet just after midnight tonight. It will fall below
    flood stage early Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
  - Flood History...No available flood history.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

            Fld   Observed           Forecasts (3 pm CDT)     
Location    Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Nueces River
Uvalde      11.0  25.2  Thu 2 pm CDT 17.0  12.4  11.4         


&&

LAT...LON 2913 9994 2914 9985 2885 9974 2853 9967
      2848 9975 2880 9985


$$

TXC127-171400-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0033.260717T0742Z-000000T0000Z/
/ASRT2.2.ER.260717T0742Z.260718T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
255 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Nueces River near Asherton.

* WHEN...From late tonight until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 22.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding reaches into low 
  lying areas of the flood plain. Livestock and equipment should be 
  moved from vulnerable areas.
  At 24.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding reaches into low lying 
  areas of the flood plain. Livestock should be moved from 
  vulnerable areas.
  At 26.0 feet, Widespread moderate lowland flooding threatens 
  livestock and equipment in low areas of the flood plain. Secondary 
  roads and bridges flood and Farm to Market 190 is threatened.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 2.7 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 18.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    just after midnight tonight and continue rising to a crest of
    25.8 feet Saturday morning.
  - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    25.7 feet on 09/18/1991.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

            Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location    Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Nueces River
Asherton    20.0  2.7   Thu 2 pm CDT 25.6  25.7  25.4         


&&

LAT...LON 2848 9975 2853 9967 2847 9939 2839 9939


$$

TXC163-171400-
/O.CON.KEWX.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DBYT2.2.ER.260716T1454Z.260719T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
255 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Frio River near Derby.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Lowland flooding below Concan to Choke 
  Canyon Reservoir floods oil well pump jacks, irrigation pumps and 
  any equipment in the lower flood plain near and above Derby.
  At 14.0 feet, Significant crop and pastureland flooding below 
  Uvalde to Choke Canyon Reservoir floods oil well pump jacks, 
  irrigation pumps and any equipment in the flood plain. Numerous 
  secondary roads and low bridges are flooded. Livestock are cut off 
  and potentially drowned in low areas of the flood plain.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 6.8 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 6.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 1:30 PM CDT Thursday was 6.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise to 13.0 feet Sunday morning.
    It will then fall early Sunday afternoon. It will rise to
    13.0 feet Monday morning. It will then fall again but remain
    above flood stage.
  - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    13.7 feet on 05/26/2015.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

          Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location  Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Frio River
Derby     6.0   6.8   Thu 1 pm CDT 11.8  12.5  12.9         


&&

LAT...LON 2873 9920 2876 9912 2864 9902 2864 9910


$$

CM
450 
WGUS84 KEWX 170137
FLSEWX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
837 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...Observed flooding changed to Major severity and increased in 
duration for the following rivers in Texas...

  Pedernales River At Johnson City affecting Blanco County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Llano River at Llano affecting Llano County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

To escape rising water, take the shortest path to higher ground.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Friday afternoon by 245 PM CDT.

&&

TXC031-171945-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-260717T2036Z/
/JOCT2.3.ER.260716T1925Z.260716T2125Z.260717T0836Z.NO/
837 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Major flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Pedernales River at Johnson City.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 19.0 feet, Major flooding makes secondary and primary 
  roads below Stonewall to Lake Travis very dangerous. Low park 
  areas downstream in Pedernales Falls State Park flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 20.1 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 13.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:00 PM CDT Thursday was 24.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late tonight and continue falling to 10.6 feet Tuesday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

                Fld   Observed           Forecasts (9 pm CDT)     
Location        Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Pedernales River
Johnson City    14.0  20.1  Thu 8 pm CDT 12.0  11.0  10.7         


&&

LAT...LON 3026 9841 3034 9841 3037 9818 3046 9809
      3041 9802 3031 9812


$$

TXC299-171945-
/O.CON.KEWX.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-260718T2000Z/
/LLAT2.2.ER.260716T1954Z.260716T2330Z.260718T0800Z.NO/
837 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Llano River at Llano.

* WHEN...Until Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 20.0 feet, Flow will be damaging to docks and boats 
  downstream in Kingsland. The lowest secondary roads and bridges 
  will be severely flooded and dangerous. Near the USGS 1:5 year 
  flood level.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 18.9 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:00 PM CDT Thursday was 20.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise back to a crest of
    19.8 feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood
    stage early Saturday morning.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

           Fld   Observed           Forecasts (9 pm CDT)     
Location   Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Llano River
Llano      10.0  18.9  Thu 8 pm CDT 12.4  7.8   5.5          


&&

LAT...LON 3067 9896 3075 9896 3079 9852 3058 9824
      3049 9829 3066 9855


$$

MO
077 
WGUS84 KEWX 171454
FLSEWX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
954 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  Pedernales River At Johnson City affecting Blanco County.

TXC031-171600-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-260717T1454Z/
/JOCT2.3.ER.260716T1925Z.260716T2125Z.260717T0804Z.NO/
954 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Pedernales River At Johnson City.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CDT Friday the stage was 12.1 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 13.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 10.6 feet
    Wednesday morning.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

                Fld   Observed           Forecasts (10 am CDT)    
Location        Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Sat   Sun   Mon          

Pedernales River
Johnson City    14.0  12.1  Fri 9 am CDT 11.0  10.7  10.7         


&&

LAT...LON 3026 9841 3034 9841 3037 9818 3046 9809
      3041 9802 3031 9812


$$

CM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jul 16, 6:49 AM CDT, 44 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • Updated at 649 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
  • The forecast remains relatively unchanged with intense rain rates and compounding effects from multiple rounds of storms resulting in a dangerous flash flooding threat continuing Today.
  • Considerable to locally catastrophic impacts from flash flooding are likely for the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, western Hill Country, and U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio.
  • Pockets of an additional 10 to 15 inches of rain are possible within the highest risk areas, with broader totals of 2 to 6 inches.
  • Potential for significant to catastrophic river flooding in the Nueces, Frio, and Medina river basins and significant flooding in the Pecos, Rio Grande, and San Antonio river basins.
  • Heed instructions from local officials and be prepared to seek higher ground if necessary.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 6:49 AM CDT, 44 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
649 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 649 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- The forecast remains relatively unchanged with intense rain rates
and compounding effects from multiple rounds of storms resulting in
a dangerous flash flooding threat continuing Today.

- Considerable to locally catastrophic impacts from flash flooding
are likely for the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, western
Hill Country, and U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio.

- Pockets of an additional 10 to 15 inches of rain are possible
within the highest risk areas, with broader totals of 2 to 6 inches.

- Potential for significant to catastrophic river flooding in the
Nueces, Frio, and Medina river basins and significant flooding in
the Pecos, Rio Grande, and San Antonio river basins.

- Heed instructions from local officials and be prepared to seek
  higher ground if necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Significant rainfall capable of life-threatening flooding is again
expected overnight tonight through tomorrow morning. This includes
likely impacts from considerable to locally catastrophic flash
flooding along the U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio including
the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and western Hill Country,
plus a renewed potential for significant mainstem river flooding
into Moderate and/or Major flood stages in the Pecos, Rio Grande,
Nueces, Frio, Medina, and San Antonio River basins. This is also in
addition to significant to catastrophic river flooding already
currently ongoing in the Nueces, Frio, and Medina basins as
floodwater's from earlier rains continue to move downstream. The
potential for renewed impacts from flash and river flooding include
areas already hard hit by recent flooding. While these locations are
at greatest risk and highest confidence for seeing significant
impacts, a Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 PM today for a
broader area across the I-35 corridor, the Hill Country, Rio Grande
Plains, and southern Edwards Plateau. Dangerous flash flooding from
torrential downpours will continue to be possible for all of these
areas.

In the highest risk areas (southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande
Plains and western Hill Country) regional values of 2 to 6 inches
continue to remain possible with the potential for pockets of an
additional 10 to 15 inches of rain through today over this area.
Otherwise 1 to 4 inch totals continue to be possible over the
remaining portions of the Flood Watch area. Very high rainfall rates
potentially reaching 2 to 4 inches per hour will again be possible
overnight tonight and into this morning. Because of how saturated
soils are, even rates of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour will be sufficient
to trigger flash flooding that will again rapidly accumulate into
creeks, rivers and arroyos across the area. It will not take much
more rainfall to produce major concerns. Additionally, steep rises
along the Frio, Medina, and Nueces rivers and their tributaries to
Moderate and/or Major flood stage are already occurring and could
eventually flow downstream with the potential for catastrophic
impacts. Continued heavy runoff and rains in these or other river
basins may produce further rises which could impact downstream areas.

The flood event is not over!

The well-defined mesoscale convective vortex responsible for the
previous few nights of torrential rainfall across parts of the area
will again be the main focus for renewed activity overnight into the
morning hours. A robust low-level jet tonight looks even stronger
than previous nights and will again support torrential downpours.
It's still quite difficult to say with certainty where this MCV
forms yet again as models are having a difficult time in deciphering
this. However, once the MCV reforms the general consensus is that
the vorticity will eventually track slowly north and west with time,
guided by flow from a retrograding upper-level low. As stated
previously, wherever this MCV re-initiates will be where the heaviest
bullseye of rain will fall overnight tonight into this morning.
Another 10 to 15 inches of rainfall will be possible in this heavier
bullseye.

Heavy rainfall may linger into this afternoon across the area as
tropical moisture continues to flow across the Edwards Plateau and
Hill Country, though as we have seen the past few days, there should
eventually be a lull as rain coverage begins to ease up. The main
forcing for these storms should eventually begin to move further away
from the area towards the north. Regardless, tropical moisture will
continue to stream northward behind the outgoing disturbance,
setting up for another round of potentially heavy rainfall again
tomorrow night(Thursday night) into Friday morning mainly over the
southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and parts of the western Hill
Country. Once again, these rains could impact areas already hard
hit. One caveat is that slightly faster mid-level winds should allow
storms to move somewhat faster, however multiple rounds of heavy
rains may still occur again.

There remains a Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) of excessive rain
capable of causing flash flooding for Today through overnight/into
Friday morning, with the most likely timeframe occurring during the
overnight/morning hours. The risk area for heavier rains and flash
flooding Tomorrow night through Friday morning is expected to shift
slightly north and west but moisture will continue to remain
plentiful across South Central Texas.

Rivers, creeks, and arroyos can rise suddenly and rapidly! Locally
dry conditions near creeks and rivers should not be treated as a
guarantee of your safety! Normally dry areas can flood in these
conditions. Heed warnings, instructions from local and county
officials, and avoid unnecessary travel. Flash flooding can be
impossible to spot at night. Avoid flooded roadways. Conditions can
change drastically and suddenly. Have multiple reliable ways to
receive warnings and information from local/state officials both in
the daytime and at night. If you are in a low-lying location or near
a stream, have a plan and have a route to reach higher ground if
needed.

WPC keeps parts of the western half of our area (Val Verde, Edwards,
Kinney counties) in a level 2 of 4 (Slight) risk for excessive
rainfall with a level 1 of 4 (Marginal) risk across the western Hill
Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains for Friday
during the day. Depending on how this activity evolves will
determine if we continue to see elevated flooding potential
continuing into Friday afternoon and even perhaps into Friday
evening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

By late week the upper pattern should start to readjust, however we
will likely still be somewhat unstable and low rain chances will
continue at least out in our western areas through Friday.By
Saturday and into this weekend we look to dry out at this point.
High temperatures should eventually moderate as we get to Saturday
and into the weekend with the return of 90s and more seasonable
temps expected into early next week. Additionally, we may see heat
indices begin to approach 100 to 105 degree range as all the
moisture and water begins to evaporate over the area and combined
with temps ramping up into the upper 90s by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue this morning, mainly along and north of
HWY-90 as abundant moisture pools. Borderline MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue
over the next few hours (12-15Z) for SAT/SSF/AUS before improving to VFR
ceilings this afternoon. Vicinity showers are kept in the forecast
through this afternoon, before focusing more westward over DRT tonight.
Southeasterly winds around 10 knots will persist through the day. Terminals
directly impacted by thunderstorms could experience stronger
variable winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              87  75  90  75 /  60  20  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  87  75  90  75 /  60  20  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     87  74  90  75 /  50  20  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            85  73  88  73 /  70  30  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           85  73  87  74 /  80  80  30  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        87  73  90  74 /  60  20  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             85  73  88  74 /  60  40  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  74  90  75 /  50  20  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  76  91  76 /  30  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       86  76  89  76 /  60  30  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           87  76  90  76 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ171>173-183>192-202>207-
217>219-228.

&&

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...CJM

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 16, 6:42 AM CDT, 51 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
642 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 AM     Flash Flood      Center Point            29.95N 99.04W
07/16/2026                   Kerr               TX   Newspaper

            Guadalupe River rose over the 480 bridge
            into Center Point with several feet of water
            over the bridge.

&&

HT
Local storm report, Jul 16, 6:48 AM CDT, 45 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
648 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 AM     Flash Flood      1 NW Kerrville          30.05N 99.15W
07/16/2026                   Kerr               TX   Public

            Town Creek in flood in Kerrville. Multiple
            streets flooded with floodwaters reaching
            homes.

&&

HT
Local storm report, Jul 16, 7:00 AM CDT, 33 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
700 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 AM     Flash Flood      12 WSW Fredericksburg   30.24N 99.06W
07/16/2026                   Gillespie          TX   Emergency Mngr

            Pedernales River rising quickly. Water
            flooding Morris Ranch Road and other
            roadways in the area.

&&

HT
Special weather statement, Jul 16, 7:13 AM CDT, 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
713 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

TXZ202-161300-
Kinney TX-
713 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Kinney
County through 800 AM CDT...

At 712 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Anacacho, or 7 miles east of Brackettville, moving southeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Brackettville, Alamo Village, Turkey Mountain, and Fort Clark
Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2925 10042 2958 10046 2959 10012 2918 10011
TIME...MOT...LOC 1212Z 299DEG 13KT 2929 10029

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

27
Local storm report, Jul 16, 7:25 AM CDT, 8 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
725 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 AM     Flash Flood      Uvalde                  29.22N 99.78W
07/16/2026                   Uvalde             TX   Emergency Mngr

            All roads in Uvalde closed due to flooding
            across many streets. All highways
            underwater.

&&

HT
Local storm report, Jul 16, 7:30 AM CDT, 3 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
730 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     Flash Flood      6 SW Fredericksburg     30.21N 98.94W
07/16/2026                   Gillespie          TX   Public

            Highway 16 flooded southwest of
            Fredericksburg.

&&

HT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 15, 8:17 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningEWXMedina19 hr
Jul 15, 8:28 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXEdwards, Real7 hr
Jul 15, 9:16 PM CDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatEWXEdwards4 hr
Jul 15, 9:56 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXBexar, Comal, Guadalupe, Wilson5 hr
Jul 15, 10:04 PM CDTTornado WarningEWXBexar26 min
Jul 15, 11:06 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXBexar10 hr
Jul 16, 12:30 AM CDTTornado WarningEWXUvalde, Zavala29 min
Jul 16, 12:54 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatEWXBandera, Kerr5 hr
Jul 16, 1:05 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXKerr27 hr
Jul 16, 1:37 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatEWXBandera, Gillespie, Kerr9 hr
Jul 16, 1:52 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXKinney, Maverick, Uvalde, Zavala80 min
Jul 16, 1:56 AM CDTTornado WarningEWXUvalde34 min
Jul 16, 2:21 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatEWXBandera, Kerr, Real14 hr
Jul 16, 2:27 AM CDTTornado WarningEWXUvalde33 min
Jul 16, 2:28 AM CDTTornado WarningEWXUvalde47 min
Jul 16, 3:00 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyCatastrophic damage threatEWXKerr12 hr
Jul 16, 3:01 AM CDTTornado WarningEWXUvalde44 min
Jul 16, 3:09 AM CDTTornado WarningEWXUvalde14 min
Jul 16, 3:12 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatEWXKinney, Maverick, Uvalde, Zavala15 hr
Jul 16, 3:15 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXKendall28 hr
Jul 16, 3:40 AM CDTTornado WarningEWXUvalde50 min
Jul 16, 3:46 AM CDTTornado WarningEWXUvalde44 min
Jul 16, 4:06 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyCatastrophic damage threatEWXUvalde6 hr
Jul 16, 4:10 AM CDTTornado WarningEWXKinney50 min
Jul 16, 4:20 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatEWXKinney, Maverick, Val Verde12 hr
Jul 16, 4:35 AM CDTTornado WarningEWXUvalde40 min
Jul 16, 5:04 AM CDTTornado WarningEWXReal, Uvalde15 min
Jul 16, 5:30 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyCatastrophic damage threatEWXKendall, Kerr14 hr
Jul 16, 5:35 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXBlanco, Gillespie15 hr
Jul 16, 5:38 AM CDTTornado WarningEWXEdwards, Real, Uvalde52 min
Jul 16, 5:50 AM CDTTornado WarningEWXBandera, Real, Uvalde28 min
Jul 16, 6:06 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXKinney39 min
Jul 16, 6:23 AM CDTTornado WarningEWXKinney52 min
Jul 16, 6:28 AM CDTTornado WarningEWXReal, Uvalde32 min
Jul 16, 6:37 AM CDTTornado WarningEWXKinney38 min
Jul 16, 7:13 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXKinney47 min
Jul 16, 8:09 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXComal40 hr
Jul 16, 8:23 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyCatastrophic damage threatEWXUvalde19 hr
Jul 16, 8:28 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXLlano59 hr
Jul 16, 8:40 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyCatastrophic damage threatEWXBlanco, Gillespie13 hr
Jul 16, 8:45 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatEWXEdwards, Kerr, Real8 hr
Jul 16, 9:25 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXMaverick60 hr
Jul 16, 10:19 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatEWXComal, Kendall12 hr
Jul 16, 11:00 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningEWXGillespie5 hr
Jul 16, 3:04 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXComal41 min
Jul 16, 3:12 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXKerr19 hr
Jul 16, 3:42 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXGillespie2 hr
Jul 16, 3:47 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXGuadalupe43 min
Jul 16, 4:00 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXBandera, Kerr, Real18 hr
Jul 16, 4:18 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXWilliamson27 min
Jul 16, 4:19 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningEWXGillespie4 hr
Jul 16, 4:32 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXKinney, Maverick, Val Verde7 hr
Jul 16, 5:56 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXEdwards, Kinney, Real2 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Texas, 2026Every river flood warning in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.