Flash Flood Warning 87, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

383 
WGUS54 KEWX 161431
FFWEWX
TXC259-265-162030-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FF.W.0087.000000T0000Z-260716T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
931 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE GUADALUPE RIVER FROM CENTER POINT 
TO BERGHEIM...

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  West Central Kendall County in south central Texas...
  East Central Kerr County in south central Texas...

* Until 330 PM CDT.

* At 931 AM CDT, emergency management reported thunderstorms 
  producing heavy rain along the Guadalupe River. Flash flooding is 
  already occurring.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for The Guadalupe River from 
  Center Point to Bergheim. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS 
  SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

  IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
           HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of
           low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Kerrville, Comfort, Waring, Sisterdale, Center Point and Crown.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Guadalupe River, Joshua Creek, Turtle Creek, Steel Creek, Verde 
  Creek, Cypress Creek, Jacobs Creek, Cherry Creek, Elm Creek, Wasp 
  Creek, Block Creek, Sabinas Creek, East Sister Creek, West Sister 
  Creek, Holliday Creek, Violet Creek, Bruins Creek and Werner Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and 
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are 
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3000 9883 2998 9880 2998 9874 2998 9867
      2996 9866 2992 9866 2991 9864 2988 9868
      2992 9869 2994 9873 2995 9881 2996 9887
      2995 9888 2994 9890 2992 9901 2992 9909
      2997 9907 2996 9901

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

$$

05

025 
WGUS54 KEWX 162026
FFWEWX
TXC259-265-170000-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FF.W.0087.000000T0000Z-260717T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
326 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  West Central Kendall County in south central Texas...
  East Central Kerr County in south central Texas...

* Until 700 PM CDT.

* At 326 PM CDT, emergency management reported thunderstorms 
  producing heavy rain in Guadalupe River . Flash flooding is 
  already occurring.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Kerrville, Comfort, Waring, Sisterdale, Center Point and Crown.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Cypress Creek, West Sister Creek, Holliday Creek, Verde Creek, 
  Werner Creek, Cherry Creek, Wasp Creek, Guadalupe River, Bruins 
  Creek, Sabinas Creek, Elm Creek, Block Creek, Turtle Creek, Joshua 
  Creek, East Sister Creek, Steel Creek, Jacobs Creek and Violet 
  Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3000 9883 2998 9880 2998 9874 2998 9867
      2996 9866 2992 9866 2991 9864 2988 9868
      2992 9869 2994 9873 2995 9881 2996 9887
      2995 9888 2994 9890 2992 9901 2992 9909
      2997 9907 2996 9901

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
144 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- The forecast remains relatively unchanged with intense rain rates
and compounding effects from multiple rounds of storms resulting in
a dangerous flash flooding threat continuing Today.

- Considerable to locally catastrophic impacts from flash flooding
are likely for the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, western
Hill Country, and U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio.

- Pockets of an additional 10 to 15 inches of rain are possible
within the highest risk areas, with broader totals of 2 to 6 inches.

- Potential for significant to catastrophic river flooding in the
Nueces, Frio, and Medina river basins and significant flooding in
the Pecos, Rio Grande, and San Antonio river basins.

- Heed instructions from local officials and be prepared to seek
  higher ground if necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Significant rainfall capable of life-threatening flooding is again
expected overnight tonight through tomorrow morning. This includes
likely impacts from considerable to locally catastrophic flash
flooding along the U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio including
the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and western Hill Country,
plus a renewed potential for significant mainstem river flooding
into Moderate and/or Major flood stages in the Pecos, Rio Grande,
Nueces, Frio, Medina, and San Antonio River basins. This is also in
addition to significant to catastrophic river flooding already
currently ongoing in the Nueces, Frio, and Medina basins as
floodwater's from earlier rains continue to move downstream. The
potential for renewed impacts from flash and river flooding include
areas already hard hit by recent flooding. While these locations are
at greatest risk and highest confidence for seeing significant
impacts, a Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 PM today for a
broader area across the I-35 corridor, the Hill Country, Rio Grande
Plains, and southern Edwards Plateau. Dangerous flash flooding from
torrential downpours will continue to be possible for all of these
areas.

In the highest risk areas (southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande
Plains and western Hill Country) regional values of 2 to 6 inches
continue to remain possible with the potential for pockets of an
additional 10 to 15 inches of rain through today over this area.
Otherwise 1 to 4 inch totals continue to be possible over the
remaining portions of the Flood Watch area. Very high rainfall rates
potentially reaching 2 to 4 inches per hour will again be possible
overnight tonight and into this morning. Because of how saturated
soils are, even rates of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour will be sufficient
to trigger flash flooding that will again rapidly accumulate into
creeks, rivers and arroyos across the area. It will not take much
more rainfall to produce major concerns. Additionally, steep rises
along the Frio, Medina, and Nueces rivers and their tributaries to
Moderate and/or Major flood stage are already occurring and could
eventually flow downstream with the potential for catastrophic
impacts. Continued heavy runoff and rains in these or other river
basins may produce further rises which could impact downstream areas.

The flood event is not over!

The well-defined mesoscale convective vortex responsible for the
previous few nights of torrential rainfall across parts of the area
will again be the main focus for renewed activity overnight into the
morning hours. A robust low-level jet tonight looks even stronger
than previous nights and will again support torrential downpours.
It's still quite difficult to say with certainty where this MCV
forms yet again as models are having a difficult time in deciphering
this. However, once the MCV reforms the general consensus is that
the vorticity will eventually track slowly north and west with time,
guided by flow from a retrograding upper-level low. As stated
previously, wherever this MCV re-initiates will be where the heaviest
bullseye of rain will fall overnight tonight into this morning.
Another 10 to 15 inches of rainfall will be possible in this heavier
bullseye.

Heavy rainfall may linger into this afternoon across the area as
tropical moisture continues to flow across the Edwards Plateau and
Hill Country, though as we have seen the past few days, there should
eventually be a lull as rain coverage begins to ease up. The main
forcing for these storms should eventually begin to move further away
from the area towards the north. Regardless, tropical moisture will
continue to stream northward behind the outgoing disturbance,
setting up for another round of potentially heavy rainfall again
tomorrow night(Thursday night) into Friday morning mainly over the
southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and parts of the western Hill
Country. Once again, these rains could impact areas already hard
hit. One caveat is that slightly faster mid-level winds should allow
storms to move somewhat faster, however multiple rounds of heavy
rains may still occur again.

There remains a Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) of excessive rain
capable of causing flash flooding for Today through overnight/into
Friday morning, with the most likely timeframe occurring during the
overnight/morning hours. The risk area for heavier rains and flash
flooding Tomorrow night through Friday morning is expected to shift
slightly north and west but moisture will continue to remain
plentiful across South Central Texas.

Rivers, creeks, and arroyos can rise suddenly and rapidly! Locally
dry conditions near creeks and rivers should not be treated as a
guarantee of your safety! Normally dry areas can flood in these
conditions. Heed warnings, instructions from local and county
officials, and avoid unnecessary travel. Flash flooding can be
impossible to spot at night. Avoid flooded roadways. Conditions can
change drastically and suddenly. Have multiple reliable ways to
receive warnings and information from local/state officials both in
the daytime and at night. If you are in a low-lying location or near
a stream, have a plan and have a route to reach higher ground if
needed.

WPC keeps parts of the western half of our area (Val Verde, Edwards,
Kinney counties) in a level 2 of 4 (Slight) risk for excessive
rainfall with a level 1 of 4 (Marginal) risk across the western Hill
Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains for Friday
during the day. Depending on how this activity evolves will
determine if we continue to see elevated flooding potential
continuing into Friday afternoon and even perhaps into Friday
evening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

By late week the upper pattern should start to readjust, however we
will likely still be somewhat unstable and low rain chances will
continue at least out in our western areas through Friday.By
Saturday and into this weekend we look to dry out at this point.
High temperatures should eventually moderate as we get to Saturday
and into the weekend with the return of 90s and more seasonable
temps expected into early next week. Additionally, we may see heat
indices begin to approach 100 to 105 degree range as all the
moisture and water begins to evaporate over the area and combined
with temps ramping up into the upper 90s by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

No significant changes to the aviation forecasts at this time. We
will continue to monitor convective trends and adjust the forecast
as needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              87  75  90  75 /  60  20  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  87  75  90  75 /  60  20  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     87  74  90  75 /  50  20  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            85  73  88  73 /  70  30  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           85  73  87  74 /  80  80  30  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        87  73  90  74 /  60  20  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             85  73  88  74 /  60  40  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  74  90  75 /  50  20  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  76  91  76 /  30  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       86  76  89  76 /  60  30  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           87  76  90  76 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ171>173-183>192-202>207-
217>219-228.

&&

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...Platt

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
157 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 AM     Flash Flood      Ingram                  30.07N 99.24W
07/16/2026                   Kerr               TX   Public

            Public called to report 1 to 2 feet of water
            covering the road, several water rescues
            occurring. Multiple roads flooded and
            impassable in Ingram, including intersection
            of Candlelite and Skyview drive.

&&

CJM