Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
204 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening east of highway 283. Main risk will be hail 2 or
  larger and wind gusts 70 mph or greater. There will also be a
  chance for a few tornadoes.

- On Monday there will be a marginal risk for severe
  thunderstorms will the main hazards being strong winds and
  large hail.

- There will be an extended period of wet weather across
  southwest Kansas this upcoming work week. Accumulating
  rainfall likely from the almost a daily chances for showers
  and thunderstorms. There is a marginal risk for excessive
  rainfall across southwest Kansas by WPC for Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

&&

**.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...**
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Our 18Z RAOB confirms the significant wind threat for this
evening is, in fact, the highest/most pressing threat. There is
plenty of DCAPE present over Dodge City (1661 J/kg). Granted,
moisture is better farther east towards Pratt and Medicine
Lodge, so DCAPE in that region is probably lower than what is at
Dodge. The other telling parameter is very marginal 0-6 km bulk
shear. Shear farther east is probably in the 20-30 kt range,
which is low end for getting robust/long last supercells. Some
of the CAMs show the development of messy storm modes with
multicellular clusters or a squall line. This looks likely given
the weak bulk shear. Storm timing is still expected around 4 pm,
with the severe window in the 4 pm to 10 pm timeframe.
Significant damaging winds (75+ mph) is the biggest threat and
less so the tornado risk. The tornado risk is not zero, however,
it looks questionable for getting long lasting supercells that
don't gust themselves out and become outflow-dominant.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A 500 mb trough was located over New Mexico this Saturday
morning. An area of low pressure at the surface was positioned
over eastern Colorado, with a stationary front extending east
southeast into southwest Kansas. This upper level trough will
lift northeast into southwest Kansas today resulting in the
surface low deepening and the surface boundary lifting northeast
toward Nebraska as a warm front. A dryline will also sharpen as
it moves into southwest Kansas by late afternoon. Along each
boundary there will be a chance for isolated to scattered
severe thunderstorms late today due to enhanced lift from the
approaching upper trough, afternoon heating/increase
instability, and low level forcing along each of these
boundaries. Large hail (>2 inches) and strong damaging winds of
greater than 70 mph currently appears to be primary hazards
given the forecast instability and shear. A few tornadoes will
also be possible along the warm front that will extend from
north central Kansas into south central Kansas late day based on
the forecast low LCLs, forecast area of better 2-5km updraft
helicity and low level shear. 

Latest CAMS earlier today seem to be in general agreement with
storm development mainly after 21z today east of Highway 283.
However a few isolated storms may occur as early as 19z along
the dry line which is currently forecast to be located near
Dodge City. Should storms develop that early in the day along
the dry line the main hazards will be hail and strong damaging
wind. As they move northeast towards the warm front the risk of
tornadoes will increase given the improving shear development
in the lower levels by the latest models. All models appear to
be in good agreement with these storms exiting the Dodge City
county warning area by 9pm as the upper level trough lifts north
across southwest Kansas. 

For the rest of Tonight...the upper trough will continue to
track northeast into Nebraska as a surface cold front moves
across southwest Kansas. Cooler air will filter in behind this
front overnight, but downslope warming during the day on Sunday
will largely offset this cooling potential as an upper ridge
builds into the area from the west. As a result, Sunday will be
another warm day, with afternoon highs climbing into the 90s.

On Monday we will once again monitor a chance for afternoon and
evening strong to severe thunderstorms as the upper level ridge
shifts slightly further east, allowing a southwest flow to
return to the West Central High Plains. Another upper level wave
embedded in this flow will approach from the west during the
day, resulting in falling pressures along the lee of the Rockies
which will allow a moist southeast flow to return as a surface
boundary lifts back back north into the area by late afternoon.
Forecast shear will not be as strong as this evening (Saturday).
However, isolated storms will be possible along and north of
this boundary given the afternoon instability and low level
lift. Should storms develop, there will be a marginal risk for
large hail and strong, gusty winds. 

Looking ahead for the remainder of the work week...The upper 
level ridge will linger over the Central United States through
at least mid week just east of western Kansas. As a result
southwest Kansas on the western edge of this ridge axis as a
moist southeast flow develops in the lower levels. This will
allow moisture to increase across the area. This position will
also allow any upper level wave embedded in the southwest flow
will cross southwest Kansas. Given this enhanced upper level
lift combined with moisture return and  improving isentropic
lift north of a nearly stationary surface boundary, this setup
will bring an extended period of daily rain chances to southwest
Kansas. Based on the expected near daily chances for rainfall
next week combined we will have to monitor the risk localize
water issues by the middle of the work week. At this time
confidence is high enough that the WPC has already issued a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Tuesday/Wednesday
across southwest Kansas. This means there is a 5% to 10% chance
that upcoming rainfall from repeated thunderstorms will exceed
flash flood guidance next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A dryline near or east of Dodge City will bring isolated
thunderstorms between 21Z today and 00Z Sunday. Hays has a
higher thunderstorm risk from 21Z today to 02Z Sunday because it
will be located north of a warm front. These storms in Hays may
produce strong damaging winds exceeding 60 knots along with
hail. Only the strong winds threat will be included in the 18Z
TAFs at this time due to high confidence on the wind gust
potential verses hail. Garden City and Liberal, located west of
the dryline, are not expected to see any convection. Ceilings
are forecast to remain VFR throughout the day and tonight based
on BUFR soundings and latest LAMP guidance. Winds will be south
at 15 to 20 knots today, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots
overnight. A cold front will cross late tonight/early Sunday,
shifting winds to the north, potentially bringing a brief 1–3
hour period of stratus or fog.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...Sugden
DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
417 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

KSZ064-065-079-302215-
Hodgeman KS-Pawnee KS-Edwards KS-
417 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN HODGEMAN...WEST CENTRAL
PAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

At 417 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Jetmore, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Jetmore around 430 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3792 9958 3792 9997 3825 9997 3820 9944
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 193DEG 25KT 3797 9985

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SUGDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
419 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

KSZ046-065-079-302215-
Rush KS-Pawnee KS-Edwards KS-
419 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL PAWNEE...SOUTHEASTERN
RUSH AND NORTH CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

At 419 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sanford, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rozel and Sanford around 425 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central and central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3802 9926 3806 9948 3840 9950 3836 9903
      3826 9903 3826 9901
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 193DEG 25KT 3812 9935

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SUGDEN

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