Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
514 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- T-storms are possible (20-30%) this afternoon and Saturday
  afternoon and then each day from Monday through Thursday.

- Hot weather will return Saturday with highs in the 90s.

- There are small chances (20-30%) for thunderstorms each day
  next week; and this could ultimately result in beneficial
  rain for many when considering the entire period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A jet streak was approaching southwest Kansas today ahead of an
upper level trough over the Rockies. With increasing low level
moisture, surface heating and the lack of a strong capping
inversion, severe storms are possible with large hail this
evening. One round of storms will affect locations closer to the
OKlahoma state line after 4 pm while other storms will likely
move into far western Kansas later this evening. It is unclear
if these storms will form into organized clusters so
thunderstorm coverage is uncertain.

A closed low over the western United States will open up and
progress eastward through Saturday before gradually moving
northward thereafter. Thus, no strong frontal passages are
forecast. With the increased mid level westerlies, a dry line
is expected to set up along a line from WaKeeney to Dodge City
Saturday afternoon. A farther west location of the dry line is
favored rather than model solutions that push it into central
Kansas. Given the relatively cool mid level temperatures and hot
surface temperatures along the dry line, a few thunderstorms
will form and move eastward, with the best chances (20-30%) in
places like Larned, Pratt and Greensburg. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail are possible with the storms. Given the formation
of a capping inversion above the increasing low level moisture,
dewpoints will likely reach into the lower 70s ahead of the dry
line, leading to strong instability. The limiting factor on
hail size is the lack of shear between 500mb and anvil level,
which will reduce precipitation evacuation from the updrafts.

After a break Sunday, there are additional chances for t-storms
Monday and Tuesday along the southern periphery of the
aforementioned trough. Also, embedded disturbances along the
southern edge of the westerlies could help with larger scale
forcing. The storms Monday could also be severe with large hail
and damaging winds. Whether any evening t-storms Monday can
grow upscale into a large cluster and bring widespread overnight
rain Monday night remains to be seen; but locally heavy rains
are a possibility given the weak mid level flow. By Tuesday the
upper level flow weakens further, with the potential for storm
severity decreasing.

Even though 500mb heights will be relatively high mid next week,
the various ensemble means continue to indicate a weakness in
the height field somewhere across the central or southern
plains. This could serve to temper high temperatures (instead
of getting very hot) and also help keep low level moisture in
place across southwest Kansas instead of mixing it out in the
vertical. Although the potential for high end severe is very
low, the potential for locally heavy rain is higher due to slow
storm movement. Rain chances are low to moderate at any given
point at specific times; but much higher when considering that
there will be isolated to scattered t-storms each day in
different spots. And the various model ensemble means show
weekly rain amounts (this evening through mid next week) of 1"
in central Kansas and .5 to .75" across far western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across eastern
Colorado are expected to drift into west central Kansas and possibly
portions of southwest Kansas this evening, potentially affecting the
vicinity of KGCK and KHYS generally after 01-03Z. Another area of
thunderstorms developing in northwest Oklahoma will move northeast
into south central Kansas this evening, staying mainly east of KDDC.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites
through late Saturday morning. Southerly winds around 10 to 20kt with
gusts up to 25kt are expected to persist through early Saturday as
lee side troughing remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...JJohnson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
734 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

KSZ081-090-300100-
Pratt KS-Barber KS-
734 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL BARBER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 734 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Isabel, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Cairo around 750 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3740 9849 3745 9870 3780 9847 3743 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 209DEG 30KT 3749 9857

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
742 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

KSZ031-046-300115-
Rush KS-Ellis KS-
742 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN RUSH AND
SOUTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 742 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hargrave, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Liebenthal around 750 PM CDT.
  Schoenchen around 755 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3849 9939 3858 9954 3885 9948 3865 9916
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 214DEG 21KT 3860 9942

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
804 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

KSZ066-081-300145-
Pratt KS-Stafford KS-
804 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT STAFFORD AND NORTHEASTERN PRATT
COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM CDT...

At 804 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Seward to near Byers. Movement was east at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  St. John and Seward around 810 PM CDT.
  Hudson around 815 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Stafford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 9891 3826 9889 3826 9847 3783 9847
      3782 9846 3778 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 256DEG 22KT 3824 9881 3784 9884

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
811 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

KSZ031-300200-
Ellis KS-
811 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY THROUGH 900
PM CDT...

At 811 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Antonino, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hays, Toulon, and Munjor around 815 PM CDT.
  Catherine around 830 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Emmeram.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3903 9904 3888 9904 3870 9924 3870 9930
      3876 9946 3908 9931
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 207DEG 24KT 3879 9932

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
814 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NNE Liebenthal        38.69N 99.30W
05/29/2026  M73 MPH          Rush               KS   Public

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
815 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 S Schoenchen          38.69N 99.33W
05/29/2026  M74 MPH          Rush               KS   Mesonet

&&

AS