Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Dodge City, KS

257 
WWUS53 KDDC 300230
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
930 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

KSC185-300245-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-260530T0245Z/
Stafford KS-
930 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN STAFFORD COUNTY...

At 930 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located very near Stafford,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Stafford and Zenith.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 9870 3805 9872 3808 9847 3790 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 240DEG 15KT 3795 9862 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

TATRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
514 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- T-storms are possible (20-30%) this afternoon and Saturday
  afternoon and then each day from Monday through Thursday.

- Hot weather will return Saturday with highs in the 90s.

- There are small chances (20-30%) for thunderstorms each day
  next week; and this could ultimately result in beneficial
  rain for many when considering the entire period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A jet streak was approaching southwest Kansas today ahead of an
upper level trough over the Rockies. With increasing low level
moisture, surface heating and the lack of a strong capping
inversion, severe storms are possible with large hail this
evening. One round of storms will affect locations closer to the
OKlahoma state line after 4 pm while other storms will likely
move into far western Kansas later this evening. It is unclear
if these storms will form into organized clusters so
thunderstorm coverage is uncertain.

A closed low over the western United States will open up and
progress eastward through Saturday before gradually moving
northward thereafter. Thus, no strong frontal passages are
forecast. With the increased mid level westerlies, a dry line
is expected to set up along a line from WaKeeney to Dodge City
Saturday afternoon. A farther west location of the dry line is
favored rather than model solutions that push it into central
Kansas. Given the relatively cool mid level temperatures and hot
surface temperatures along the dry line, a few thunderstorms
will form and move eastward, with the best chances (20-30%) in
places like Larned, Pratt and Greensburg. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail are possible with the storms. Given the formation
of a capping inversion above the increasing low level moisture,
dewpoints will likely reach into the lower 70s ahead of the dry
line, leading to strong instability. The limiting factor on
hail size is the lack of shear between 500mb and anvil level,
which will reduce precipitation evacuation from the updrafts.

After a break Sunday, there are additional chances for t-storms
Monday and Tuesday along the southern periphery of the
aforementioned trough. Also, embedded disturbances along the
southern edge of the westerlies could help with larger scale
forcing. The storms Monday could also be severe with large hail
and damaging winds. Whether any evening t-storms Monday can
grow upscale into a large cluster and bring widespread overnight
rain Monday night remains to be seen; but locally heavy rains
are a possibility given the weak mid level flow. By Tuesday the
upper level flow weakens further, with the potential for storm
severity decreasing.

Even though 500mb heights will be relatively high mid next week,
the various ensemble means continue to indicate a weakness in
the height field somewhere across the central or southern
plains. This could serve to temper high temperatures (instead
of getting very hot) and also help keep low level moisture in
place across southwest Kansas instead of mixing it out in the
vertical. Although the potential for high end severe is very
low, the potential for locally heavy rain is higher due to slow
storm movement. Rain chances are low to moderate at any given
point at specific times; but much higher when considering that
there will be isolated to scattered t-storms each day in
different spots. And the various model ensemble means show
weekly rain amounts (this evening through mid next week) of 1"
in central Kansas and .5 to .75" across far western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across eastern
Colorado are expected to drift into west central Kansas and possibly
portions of southwest Kansas this evening, potentially affecting the
vicinity of KGCK and KHYS generally after 01-03Z. Another area of
thunderstorms developing in northwest Oklahoma will move northeast
into south central Kansas this evening, staying mainly east of KDDC.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites
through late Saturday morning. Southerly winds around 10 to 20kt with
gusts up to 25kt are expected to persist through early Saturday as
lee side troughing remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...JJohnson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
814 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NNE Liebenthal        38.69N 99.30W
05/29/2026  M73 MPH          Rush               KS   Public

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
815 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 S Schoenchen          38.69N 99.33W
05/29/2026  M74 MPH          Rush               KS   Mesonet

&&

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
852 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

KSZ031-300215-
Ellis KS-
852 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY
THROUGH 915 PM CDT...

At 851 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Emmeram, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Ellis
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3895 9904 3892 9907 3902 9926 3913 9918
      3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 216DEG 25KT 3903 9912

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TATRO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
853 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 N Hays                38.89N 99.32W
05/29/2026  E60 MPH          Ellis              KS   Public

            Social media report of 55-60 mph winds in
            Hays. Time estimated via radar.

&&

RMB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
901 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     Hail             7 NW Preston            37.83N 98.65W
05/29/2026  M1.50 Inch       Stafford           KS   Emergency Mngr

            Ping pong ball sized hail reported along the
            Stafford and Pratt County line.

&&

RMB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
906 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     Hail             1 ESE Hays              38.87N 99.30W
05/29/2026  E1.00 Inch       Ellis              KS   Public

            Social media report of quarter size hail on
            the southeast side of Hays. Time estimated
            via radar.

&&

RMB