Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
355 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued
for the entire area through 10 PM EDT. The threat of severe storms
for tonight has increased to an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) across
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. A Flood Watch has been
issued until midnight for portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania that have already received heavy rain over the last 24
hours.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this
evening. The primary threat will be damaging winds but large and a
tornado or two are also possible. Thunderstorms will also produce
heavy rain and could result in flash flooding, especially for area
that have received heavy rain over the last 24 hours.

2) The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will continue on
Friday, especially across southern portions of the area.

3) Cooler and drier weather is expected for the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Considerable instability has developed across the region this
afternoon with ML CAPE values of 2500-3000 J/kg. An MCS is
taking shape over lower Michigan and is going to be the driving
feature for severe thunderstorms to affect the area this
evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the
entire area through 10 PM and a Flood Watch has been issued for
portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through
Midnight.

The MCS is moving southeast around the periphery of the upper level
ridge. A bullseye of 40-50 knots of effective shear is forecast to
move from Michigan across Lake Erie towards Cleveland and the
northeast lakeshore. Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph will be the
primary hazard this evening, although isolated stronger wind
gusts are possible, especially with bowing line segments or cold
pool acceleration. Large hail and a tornado or two are also
possible given the strong shear and lift in the column. Latest
CAMs do indicate more of a linear feature that looks fairly
progressive through the evening. In this case, the potential
for training storms may be somewhat lower. Portions of Northeast
Ohio received up to 2 inches of rain this morning while
portions of Northwest PA and especially Erie County has received
2-5 inches of rain over the last 36 hours. This recent rainfall
will lead to wet antecedent conditions and flooding or flash
flooding will be faster to develop.

The southward extent of storms is less certain, especially south of
Route 30 in NW Ohio. If storms can extend farther south, DCAPE
values are very high in the 1200-1400 J/kg range, making downbursts
very concerning.

This activity will push southeast of the area by 10 PM but a
boundary will remain from lower Michigan towards Central Ohio.
Additional shortwave energy is expected to round the ridge overnight
and showers could continue along with scattered thunderstorms. Any
thunderstorms late tonight should pose a lower threat of severe
weather.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The timing and coverage of storms this evening and late tonight
will have an impact on severe weather potential on Friday. One
shortwave could pass early Friday morning with a second through
midday on Friday. Some models indicate that southern portions of
the area could destabilize again between the first and second
round with a few severe thunderstorms possible on Friday,
especially along and south of the Route 30 corridor. The
potential for stronger storms would be a little earlier in the
day, from late morning through mid-afternoon.

The cold front has trended slower to clear the local area, thus
prolonging the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Another
round is possible across NW Ohio on Friday night and even into
Saturday now. This should shift south with time on Saturday as we
finally see a cap developing with increasing subidence.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will begin to
build in from the north on Saturday, firmly taking hold of the area
for Sunday and Monday. A drier airmass will accompany high pressure
with temperatures settling back to seasonal norms in the upper 70s
to near 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Challenging forecast in terms of timing multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms that are expected to move through the
region between this evening and Friday afternoon. The complex of
thunderstorms currently organizing in western Lower Michigan is
expected to turn ESE and move across Lake Erie this evening.
This complex will impact most of northern Ohio and NW PA with
torrential rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Tried to
tweak the timing of this with TEMPO groups, and generally expect
it to impact KTOL, KCLE, and KERI between 22 and 01Z. The
storms should be weaker with southward extent, but confidence
is increasing that they will at least clip KFDY, KMFD, KCAK, and
KYNG between roughly 00 and 02Z.

There will be a lull most of the overnight, and that should
allow for at least MVFR mist in some of the typical spots
(KTOL, KFDY, KMFD), but some additional showers may dive into
the KTOL area late. Confidence is low on that. There is better
potential for another round of activity entering NW Ohio after
16Z Friday, so started to add SHRA and VCTS to KTOL, KFDY, and KCLE
after 18Z. Mainly VFR is expected outside of the mist and
rounds of storms.

SW winds of 5-10 knots this afternoon will turn light S tonight
then W to WNW at 5-10 knots by mid Friday morning.

Outlook... Non-VFR possible in rounds of showers/storms through
Friday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly quiet conditions are expected on Lake Erie through
Friday outside of rounds of thunderstorms. A quasi-stationary
front draped west- east across the lake this afternoon and
evening will push slowly south as a cold front tonight and
Friday. This will keep winds on the lake light and variable
through Friday afternoon before becoming more steadily N at 5-10
knots. Stronger NE winds of 10-20 knots are expected late
Friday night through Sunday as Canadian high pressure builds
across the Great Lakes. This will build wave heights to 2 to 3
feet in the western and central basins at times, and we may be
near Small Craft Advisory criteria. Lighter, mainly E winds,
are expected Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>008-
     017>019-027>031-036>038-047.
     Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ012>014-023-089.
PA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
412 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ009>011-020>022-032-033-042015-
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-
on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Medina-Summit-Portage-Stark-
Mahoning-
412 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central Ohio
and northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds to 70 mph and large hail will
be the main threats with thunderstorms. A tornado or two is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered to isolated thunderstorms are possible on Friday. Some may
be strong to severe at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ003-006>008-017>019-027>031-036>038-047-042015-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
412 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds to 70 mph and large hail will
be the main threats with thunderstorms. A tornado or two is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered to isolated thunderstorms are possible on Friday. Some may
be strong to severe at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ012>014-023-089-PAZ001>003-042015-
Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Trumbull-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
412 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds to 70 mph and large hail will
be the main threats with thunderstorms. A tornado or two is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered to isolated thunderstorms are possible on Friday. Some may
be strong to severe at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-042015-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
412 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening.
Wind gusts to 600 mph and large hail will be the main threats with
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered to isolated thunderstorms are possible on Friday. Some may
be strong to severe at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1205 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Mentor-on-the-Lake 41.70N 81.39W
09/03/2026                   Lake               OH   Amateur Radio

            Large healthy trees downed onto two houses
            on Tioga Trail and Cherokee Trail in
            Willoughby. Both houses sustained heavy
            damage. Time estimated via radar.

&&

JS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
245 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

OHZ021-022-032-031930-
Summit OH-Portage OH-Stark OH-
245 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTAGE...NORTHEASTERN
STARK AND SOUTHERN SUMMIT COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

At 245 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Akron, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Akron, Ravenna, Cuyahoga Falls, Kent, Barberton, Green, Tallmadge,
Mogadore, Hartville, Stow, New Franklin, Norton, Brimfield, Fairlawn,
Randolph, Munroe Falls, Lakemore, Atwater, Edinburg, and Silver Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4114 8164 4124 8107 4099 8104 4099 8108
      4096 8109 4096 8161
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 264DEG 24KT 4106 8153

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
258 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

OHZ013-014-023-031945-
Geauga OH-Trumbull OH-Ashtabula Inland OH-
258 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN TRUMBULL...SOUTHEASTERN
GEAUGA AND SOUTHERN ASHTABULA COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 258 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Middlefield, or 11 miles southeast of Chardon, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cortland, Middlefield, Kinsman, North Bloomfield, Orwell, West
Farmington, Bristolville, Huntsburg, Mecca, Johnston, Orangeville,
and Yankee Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4142 8115 4159 8108 4151 8052 4125 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 287DEG 20KT 4149 8103

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

04

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
310 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNE Cleveland         41.52N 81.68W
09/03/2026  M53 MPH          Cuyahoga           OH   ASOS

            ASOS station KBKL Cleveland reported a 46 kt
            wind gust.

&&

Sefcovic

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
340 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     Hail             1 E Lakemore            41.02N 81.42W
09/03/2026  M1.00 Inch       Summit             OH   Trained Spotter

            Quarter size hail observed at Springfield
            High School.

&&

Garuckas

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
344 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     Hail             1 N Lakemore            41.03N 81.43W
09/03/2026  E1.75 Inch       Summit             OH   Public

&&

JS