Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Cleveland, OH

507 
WGUS71 KCLE 030728
FFSCLE

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
328 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

PAC049-030738-
/O.EXP.KCLE.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-260903T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie PA-
328 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING AT 330 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ERIE
COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING...

&&

LAT...LON 4200 8047 4211 8019 4218 8012 4219 8008
      4217 8005 4224 7990 4228 7976 4200 7976
      4200 7961 4190 7961 4189 8019

$$

23

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
724 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..00z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The threat of severe storms has trended up for Northwest Pennsylvania
with an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for Erie County PA. This
includes a threat of damaging winds and potential for a tornado.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible through midday on
Friday. Thunderstorms may be strong to severe at times, including a
threat of heavy rain and flash flooding.

2) Hot and humid conditions are forecast to continue on
Thursday. Heat index values are forecast to be in the upper 90s
for another day in Northwest Ohio with upper 80s to lower 90s
forecast in Northeast Ohio.

3) Cooler and drier weather is expected for the holiday
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad ridge remains in place across the Mid-
Mississippi and Ohio Valley Regions. Hot and unstable conditions
remain in place with dewpoints in the low 70s and ML CAPE values of
2500-3000 J/kg. Temperatures of 10C at 700mb can be a good indicator
of a capped environment and this threshold extends to just north of
Mansfield in the west but south of Youngstown in the east. So far a
lack of forcing has been a limiting factor for thunderstorms this
afternoon but that could change this evening.

The active storm track extends around the periphery of the ridge
from Iowa across Central Lower Michigan to New York. We are seeing
some cu trying to build across the snowbelt region with isolated to
scattered storms possible in this area between 4-8 PM. The first
couple showers that have developed have struggled to grow
vertically. We will have to see if this initial activity has
strong enough updrafts to be severe. Later this evening, the
shortwave crossing lower Michigan will move towards New York and
expect the potential for scattered strong to severe storms to
move south into Northwest Pennsylvania, likely extending
westward into Ohio. Effective shear values will increase to 40+
knots this evening coupled with backed flow in the low levels
downwind of Lake Erie. The SPC has raised the severe weather
outlook across New York and extending into Erie County PA to an
Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) while a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
remains from nearly Toledo to Youngstown. Main time frame for
organized severe storms looks to be in the 7 PM - 11 PM window,
then settling south across Northeast Ohio overnight. A few of
the CAMs show another push of stronger storms late tonight
moving southeast along the boundary but confidence is low in
that occurrence.

The overnight activity will set the stage for Thursday as the ridge
axis shifts slightly westward with northwest flow aloft. Instability
will be very high again and expect to see scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop with daytime heating during the afternoon.
This could initially be focused from northwest to southeast across
the eastern counties of Ohio but think we will see an expansion of
storms across much of northern Ohio during the evening. Still many
options for how this will evolve but the potential for severe
thunderstorms and heavy rain will continue. PW values of around
2 inches will support heavy rainfall. Good coverage of
thunderstorms are likely to persist Thursday night as a stronger
shortwave trough finally crosses northern Ohio. Showers with
scattered thunderstorms may linger into Friday but will become
focused across Northwest Ohio by Saturday as the overall
longwave pattern transitions to northwest flow with a trough
over New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures will trend slightly cooler on Thursday as the boundary
settles south into the area. The hottest area will be along the I-75
corridor where highs will still be near 90 and heat index values
will reach the upper 90s. Given the potential for scattered showers
and thunderstorms along with partly cloudy skies, a Heat Advisory is
not planned for Thursday. This could change overnight if chances of
precipitation trend lower in the west or if more sun is expected.
Will see how the convection plays out first before deciding if
we need to an advisory for a few more counties.

KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure will build south out of Canada on
Saturday and bring cooler and drier conditions through the Holiday
weekend. High temperatures will return to near normal values in the
upper 70s to near 80. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s will
bring lower humidity. A lower chance of precipitation will continue
along the I-75 corridor on Saturday with dry conditions in the
forecast Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A broken line of storms over the central and eastern basin of
Lake Erie is expected to track southeast mainly affecting KERI
from 00z to 02z. Will maintain a tempo group TSRA with gust up
to 28 knots. Mesoscale models continua to show another round of
storms tracking across NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania 07z to
11z...affecting KERI, KCLE, KCAK and KYNG. Will insert a tempo
group at KERI and VCTS for KCLE, KCAK, and KYNG due to less
confidence with convection developing farther west overnight.
Thus no VCTS for KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD overnight. IFR conditions
will occur at TAF sites with storms. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through 00Z Friday.

Outlook... Non-VFR possible in shower and storm activity
through Thursday night.

Outlook... Non-VFR possible in shower and storm activity through
Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
The main marine concern over the next 36 hours will be several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the lake with the
potential for strong, damaging wind gusts and large hail. For
broader conditions outside of the storms, the lake is ahead of a
cold front this afternoon and will have southerly flow until the
cold front passes on Thursday evening. Some ridging will build
from the north for Friday and into the weekend and allow for
some elevated north to northeast flow. This flow could allow for
waves in the 2 to 3 ft range over the weekend, which would be a
problem for some moderate swimming risk for the western and
central basin beaches.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...FZ
MARINE...Sefcovic

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1108 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-040315-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-
Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-
1108 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of storms may move south across the area. Strong to severe
winds are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1022 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     Hail             1 SE Harborcreek        42.16N 79.95W
09/02/2026  E1.00 Inch       Erie               PA   Public

&&

PS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1043 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 PM     Flood            1 SW Erie               42.12N 80.10W
09/02/2026                   Erie               PA   Broadcast Media

            Flooding reported at W 12th and Liberty.

&&

PS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1045 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 NE North East         42.26N 79.78W
09/02/2026                   Erie               PA   Public

            Trees down at Gay Road and East Lake Road.

&&

PS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1055 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 NNW Conneaut          41.96N 80.58W
09/02/2026  M41 MPH          Ashtabula          OH   Public

            public weather station.

&&

PS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1056 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 NNW Conneaut          41.96N 80.58W
09/02/2026  M56 MPH          Ashtabula          OH   Public

            public weather station.

&&

PS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1126 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     Flood            2 SSE North East        42.19N 79.83W
09/02/2026                   Erie               PA   Broadcast Media

            Flooding reported at mile marker 41 on I-90
            eastbound.

&&

15