Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Cleveland, OH

225 
WWUS51 KCLE 030259
SVSCLE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1059 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

PAC039-049-030308-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0262.000000T0000Z-260903T0330Z/
Erie PA-Crawford PA-
1059 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ERIE AND
NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
northwestern Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 4162 7973 4188 8031 4188 7962 4196 7961
      4161 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 298DEG 31KT 4211 7922 4182 7939 4193 8012 

$$

15

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
724 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..00z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The threat of severe storms has trended up for Northwest Pennsylvania
with an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for Erie County PA. This
includes a threat of damaging winds and potential for a tornado.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible through midday on
Friday. Thunderstorms may be strong to severe at times, including a
threat of heavy rain and flash flooding.

2) Hot and humid conditions are forecast to continue on
Thursday. Heat index values are forecast to be in the upper 90s
for another day in Northwest Ohio with upper 80s to lower 90s
forecast in Northeast Ohio.

3) Cooler and drier weather is expected for the holiday
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad ridge remains in place across the Mid-
Mississippi and Ohio Valley Regions. Hot and unstable conditions
remain in place with dewpoints in the low 70s and ML CAPE values of
2500-3000 J/kg. Temperatures of 10C at 700mb can be a good indicator
of a capped environment and this threshold extends to just north of
Mansfield in the west but south of Youngstown in the east. So far a
lack of forcing has been a limiting factor for thunderstorms this
afternoon but that could change this evening.

The active storm track extends around the periphery of the ridge
from Iowa across Central Lower Michigan to New York. We are seeing
some cu trying to build across the snowbelt region with isolated to
scattered storms possible in this area between 4-8 PM. The first
couple showers that have developed have struggled to grow
vertically. We will have to see if this initial activity has
strong enough updrafts to be severe. Later this evening, the
shortwave crossing lower Michigan will move towards New York and
expect the potential for scattered strong to severe storms to
move south into Northwest Pennsylvania, likely extending
westward into Ohio. Effective shear values will increase to 40+
knots this evening coupled with backed flow in the low levels
downwind of Lake Erie. The SPC has raised the severe weather
outlook across New York and extending into Erie County PA to an
Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) while a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
remains from nearly Toledo to Youngstown. Main time frame for
organized severe storms looks to be in the 7 PM - 11 PM window,
then settling south across Northeast Ohio overnight. A few of
the CAMs show another push of stronger storms late tonight
moving southeast along the boundary but confidence is low in
that occurrence.

The overnight activity will set the stage for Thursday as the ridge
axis shifts slightly westward with northwest flow aloft. Instability
will be very high again and expect to see scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop with daytime heating during the afternoon.
This could initially be focused from northwest to southeast across
the eastern counties of Ohio but think we will see an expansion of
storms across much of northern Ohio during the evening. Still many
options for how this will evolve but the potential for severe
thunderstorms and heavy rain will continue. PW values of around
2 inches will support heavy rainfall. Good coverage of
thunderstorms are likely to persist Thursday night as a stronger
shortwave trough finally crosses northern Ohio. Showers with
scattered thunderstorms may linger into Friday but will become
focused across Northwest Ohio by Saturday as the overall
longwave pattern transitions to northwest flow with a trough
over New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures will trend slightly cooler on Thursday as the boundary
settles south into the area. The hottest area will be along the I-75
corridor where highs will still be near 90 and heat index values
will reach the upper 90s. Given the potential for scattered showers
and thunderstorms along with partly cloudy skies, a Heat Advisory is
not planned for Thursday. This could change overnight if chances of
precipitation trend lower in the west or if more sun is expected.
Will see how the convection plays out first before deciding if
we need to an advisory for a few more counties.

KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure will build south out of Canada on
Saturday and bring cooler and drier conditions through the Holiday
weekend. High temperatures will return to near normal values in the
upper 70s to near 80. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s will
bring lower humidity. A lower chance of precipitation will continue
along the I-75 corridor on Saturday with dry conditions in the
forecast Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A broken line of storms over the central and eastern basin of
Lake Erie is expected to track southeast mainly affecting KERI
from 00z to 02z. Will maintain a tempo group TSRA with gust up
to 28 knots. Mesoscale models continua to show another round of
storms tracking across NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania 07z to
11z...affecting KERI, KCLE, KCAK and KYNG. Will insert a tempo
group at KERI and VCTS for KCLE, KCAK, and KYNG due to less
confidence with convection developing farther west overnight.
Thus no VCTS for KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD overnight. IFR conditions
will occur at TAF sites with storms. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through 00Z Friday.

Outlook... Non-VFR possible in shower and storm activity
through Thursday night.

Outlook... Non-VFR possible in shower and storm activity through
Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
The main marine concern over the next 36 hours will be several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the lake with the
potential for strong, damaging wind gusts and large hail. For
broader conditions outside of the storms, the lake is ahead of a
cold front this afternoon and will have southerly flow until the
cold front passes on Thursday evening. Some ridging will build
from the north for Friday and into the weekend and allow for
some elevated north to northeast flow. This flow could allow for
waves in the 2 to 3 ft range over the weekend, which would be a
problem for some moderate swimming risk for the western and
central basin beaches.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...FZ
MARINE...Sefcovic

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
850 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

LEZ142>147-162>167-OHZ003-006>013-017>022-027>033-036>038-047-040100-
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Hancock-Seneca-
Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-
Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
850 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ148-149-168-169-OHZ014-023-089-PAZ001>003-040100-
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Geneva-on-
the-Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Ashtabula Inland-Trumbull-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
850 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 646 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, northeast Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-040100-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
850 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...TORNADO WATCH 645 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
653 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 NW Cochranton         41.56N 80.11W
09/02/2026                   Crawford           PA   911 Call Center

            Tree down. Time estimated via radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
718 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Garrettsville       41.28N 81.05W
09/02/2026                   Portage            OH   911 Call Center

            Tree down. Time estimated via radar.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
758 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

OHZ013-022-023-030045-
Geauga OH-Portage OH-Trumbull OH-
758 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN TRUMBULL...NORTHERN
PORTAGE AND SOUTHEASTERN GEAUGA COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

At 758 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mantua, or 7 miles north of Ravenna, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warren, Niles, Streetsboro, Newton Falls, Lordstown, Garrettsville,
Mantua, West Farmington, Bristolville, Leavittsburg, Aurora, Parkman,
Windham, Hiram, Bolindale, Turnpike Interchange, Champion Heights,
and South Canal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
northeastern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4120 8125 4129 8137 4138 8121 4144 8089
      4119 8074 4118 8105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 259DEG 25KT 4127 8123

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
929 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

PAZ001-002-030215-
Northern Erie PA-Southern Erie PA-
929 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ERIE COUNTY THROUGH
1015 PM EDT...

At 928 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Northwest Harborcreek, or 8 miles north of Erie, moving east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Erie, North East, Northwest Harborcreek, Harborcreek, Lawrence Park,
Wesleyville, and Northwest Harborcr.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
northwestern Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4227 7976 4205 7976 4211 8002 4215 8005
      4220 7994
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 279DEG 20KT 4224 8002

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

15

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1006 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ENE Avonia            42.06N 80.23W
09/02/2026                   Erie               PA   Law Enforcement

            Tree down at Dutch road and West Lake Road.

&&

PS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1022 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     Hail             1 SE Harborcreek        42.16N 79.95W
09/02/2026  E1.00 Inch       Erie               PA   Public

&&

PS