Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
139 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The threat of severe storms has trended up for Northwest Pennsylvania
with an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for Erie County PA. This
includes a threat of damaging winds and potential for a tornado.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible through midday on
Friday. Thunderstorms may be strong to severe at times, including a
threat of heavy rain and flash flooding.

2) Hot and humid conditions are forecast to continue on
Thursday. Heat index values are forecast to be in the upper 90s
for another day in Northwest Ohio with upper 80s to lower 90s
forecast in Northeast Ohio.

3) Cooler and drier weather is expected for the holiday
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad ridge remains in place across the Mid-
Mississippi and Ohio Valley Regions. Hot and unstable conditions
remain in place with dewpoints in the low 70s and ML CAPE values of
2500-3000 J/kg. Temperatures of 10C at 700mb can be a good indicator
of a capped environment and this threshold extends to just north of
Mansfield in the west but south of Youngstown in the east. So far a
lack of forcing has been a limiting factor for thunderstorms this
afternoon but that could change this evening.

The active storm track extends around the periphery of the ridge
from Iowa across Central Lower Michigan to New York. We are seeing
some cu trying to build across the snowbelt region with isolated to
scattered storms possible in this area between 4-8 PM. The first
couple showers that have developed have struggled to grow
vertically. We will have to see if this initial activity has
strong enough updrafts to be severe. Later this evening, the
shortwave crossing lower Michigan will move towards New York and
expect the potential for scattered strong to severe storms to
move south into Northwest Pennsylvania, likely extending
westward into Ohio. Effective shear values will increase to 40+
knots this evening coupled with backed flow in the low levels
downwind of Lake Erie. The SPC has raised the severe weather
outlook across New York and extending into Erie County PA to an
Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) while a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
remains from nearly Toledo to Youngstown. Main time frame for
organized severe storms looks to be in the 7 PM - 11 PM window,
then settling south across Northeast Ohio overnight. A few of
the CAMs show another push of stronger storms late tonight
moving southeast along the boundary but confidence is low in
that occurrence.

The overnight activity will set the stage for Thursday as the ridge
axis shifts slightly westward with northwest flow aloft. Instability
will be very high again and expect to see scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop with daytime heating during the afternoon.
This could initially be focused from northwest to southeast across
the eastern counties of Ohio but think we will see an expansion of
storms across much of northern Ohio during the evening. Still many
options for how this will evolve but the potential for severe
thunderstorms and heavy rain will continue. PW values of around
2 inches will support heavy rainfall. Good coverage of
thunderstorms are likely to persist Thursday night as a stronger
shortwave trough finally crosses northern Ohio. Showers with
scattered thunderstorms may linger into Friday but will become
focused across Northwest Ohio by Saturday as the overall
longwave pattern transitions to northwest flow with a trough
over New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures will trend slightly cooler on Thursday as the boundary
settles south into the area. The hottest area will be along the I-75
corridor where highs will still be near 90 and heat index values
will reach the upper 90s. Given the potential for scattered showers
and thunderstorms along with partly cloudy skies, a Heat Advisory is
not planned for Thursday. This could change overnight if chances of
precipitation trend lower in the west or if more sun is expected.
Will see how the convection plays out first before deciding if
we need to an advisory for a few more counties.

KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure will build south out of Canada on
Saturday and bring cooler and drier conditions through the Holiday
weekend. High temperatures will return to near normal values in the
upper 70s to near 80. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s will
bring lower humidity. A lower chance of precipitation will continue
along the I-75 corridor on Saturday with dry conditions in the
forecast Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Ongoing convection moving in off Lake Erie continues for
CLE/ERI, and could move into the CAK/YNG area. Terminals further
west likely not to have to deal with this activity. Storms have
histories of 25-40kt wind gusts and expect this to persist for
the next couple of hours in NE OH/NW PA. After convective
activity subsides after 08Z, mid level cloud deck remains
through the night CLE-MF and terminals east. Cumulus field
develops again Thursday with TSRA potential after 16Z, mainly
for TOL/CLE/ERI/CAK/YNG. Could see another round after that
towards the end of the 06Z Friday time frame, and may see this
populated in the 12Z set of TAFs later this morning for later
Thursday night.

Outlook... Non-VFR possible in rounds of showers/storms through
early Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
The main marine concern over the next 36 hours will be several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the lake with the
potential for strong, damaging wind gusts and large hail. For
broader conditions outside of the storms, the lake is ahead of a
cold front this afternoon and will have southerly flow until the
cold front passes on Thursday evening. Some ridging will build
from the north for Friday and into the weekend and allow for
some elevated north to northeast flow. This flow could allow for
waves in the 2 to 3 ft range over the weekend, which would be a
problem for some moderate swimming risk for the western and
central basin beaches.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for OHZ003-006>008-017>019-027>031-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Sefcovic

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1108 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-040315-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-
Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-
1108 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of storms may move south across the area. Strong to severe
winds are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1145 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 WSW Presque Isle      42.15N 80.13W
09/02/2026  M51 MPH          Erie               PA   C-Man Station

            C-Man station BCTP1 1 WSW Presque Isle gust
            to 44 knots.

&&

15

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1214 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 WSW Erie              42.12N 80.10W
09/02/2026                   Erie               PA   911 Call Center

            Public safety scanner reported a tree down
            on a house. Time estimated via radar.

&&

15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1217 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

PAZ002-003-030445-
Southern Erie PA-Crawford PA-
1217 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ERIE AND
NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM EDT...

At 1217 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Corry to near Wattsburg. Movement was
south at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Corry, Union City, Riceville, Canadohta Lake, Lincolnville,
Spartansburg, and Elgin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 7994 4197 7997 4200 7975 4200 7962
      4199 7961 4172 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0417Z 348DEG 29KT 4196 7963 4197 7986

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Saunders

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1239 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

OHZ014-089-PAZ001>003-030530-
Ashtabula Lakeshore OH-Ashtabula Inland OH-Northern Erie PA-
Southern Erie PA-Crawford PA-
1239 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ASHTABULA...
SOUTHWESTERN ERIE AND NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM
EDT...

At 1238 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Waterford to Conneaut. Movement was
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Conneaut, Edinboro, Union City, Girard, North Kingsville, Cambridge
Springs, Waterford, Albion, Linesville, Canadohta Lake, Riceville,
Lincolnville, Pymatuning North, Harmonsburg, Pierpont, Saegertown,
Conneautville, Cranesville, Springboro, and Platea.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4171 7973 4165 8056 4193 8069 4196 8055
      4200 8045 4198 7987
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 335DEG 26KT 4199 8003 4195 8059

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Saunders

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
124 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

OHZ012>014-023-089-PAZ003-030615-
Geauga OH-Lake OH-Trumbull OH-Ashtabula Lakeshore OH-
Ashtabula Inland OH-Crawford PA-
124 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL TRUMBULL...
NORTHEASTERN GEAUGA...NORTHEASTERN LAKE...ASHTABULA AND WEST CENTRAL
CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 215 AM EDT...

At 124 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fairport Harbor, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Painesville, Fairport Harbor, Mentor, Geneva, Madison, Kinsman,
Perry, Orwell, Andover, Linesville, Pymatuning North, Pymatuning
Central, Mentor-On-The-Lake, Austinburg, Montville, Hartsgrove,
Roaming Shores, Pierpont, Cherry Valley, and North Perry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4170 8031 4142 8063 4172 8136 4176 8129
      4176 8124 4181 8113 4185 8103
TIME...MOT...LOC 0524Z 288DEG 48KT 4177 8122

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Saunders

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
136 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

PAZ003-030615-
Crawford PA-
136 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY THROUGH
215 AM EDT...

At 136 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lincolnville, or 14 miles northeast of Meadville, moving southeast at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Titusville, Cambridge Springs, Riceville, Canadohta Lake, Guys Mills,
Lincolnville, Hydetown, Blooming Valley, Townville, Venango, and
Woodcock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4162 7982 4157 7988 4157 7989 4155 7992
      4154 7993 4180 8016 4186 7993 4185 7979
      4175 7961 4162 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0536Z 309DEG 28KT 4178 7994

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Saunders