Storm Warning 25, NWS Anchorage, AK

257 
FZAK52 PAFC 162356
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-171315-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 978 mb low 100 nm N of Seguam Island strengthens as it moves 
into the W Bering Sat afternoon at 972 mb then to Russia Sun 
afternoon. Its front moves across the E and N Bering Sea through 
Sun morning. A 972 mb N Pacific low moves to 110 nm S of Amchitka 
by Sun afternoon. Its front reaches the Aleutians by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ750-171315-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ751-171315-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ752-171315-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ753-171315-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ754-171315-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ755-171315-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ756-171315-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ757-171315-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ758-171315-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ759-171315-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ770-171315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt except SE 35 kt from Unalaska E.
Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable
10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ772-171315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon.
From Unalaska E, SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ771-171315-
Unalaska Bay-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming N after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ773-171315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft subsiding to 22 ft
after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable
10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ774-171315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft subsiding to 23 ft
after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ775-171315-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ776-171315-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ777-171315-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ778-171315-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 20 ft subsiding to 14 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ780-171315-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ781-171315-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ782-171315-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ783-171315-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ784-171315-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ785-171315-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ786-171315-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ787-171315-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ766-171315-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the
afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ760-171315-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ761-171315-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt.
.WED...N wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ762-171315-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ763-171315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.MON...E wind 15 kt.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ764-171315-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ765-171315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Snow.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Snow showers.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 kt.
.WED...E wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ767-171315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
256 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 15 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas in ice free waters 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SE 30 kt
W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 19 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 20 ft.

$$

642 
FZAK52 PAFC 171141
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-180015-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 mb low 230 nm W of St. Paul strengthens as it moves into 
the W Bering Sat afternoon at 972 mb then to Russia Sun afternoon.
Its front moves across the E and N Bering Sea through Sun 
morning. A N Pacific low moves to 200 nm S of Amchitka at 975 mb 
by Sun morning and 100 nm E of Attu by Mon morning. Its front 
pushes across the Aleutians Sun morning through Mon morning.

$$

PKZ750-180015-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ751-180015-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ752-180015-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ753-180015-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ754-180015-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ755-180015-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ756-180015-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ757-180015-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ758-180015-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ759-180015-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ770-180015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. 
From Unalaska E, SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ772-180015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ771-180015-
Unalaska Bay-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ773-180015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ774-180015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ775-180015-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ776-180015-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ777-180015-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ778-180015-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ780-180015-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft. Snow with rain.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ781-180015-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Snow.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ782-180015-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft. Snow with rain.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ783-180015-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ784-180015-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ785-180015-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ786-180015-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ787-180015-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ766-180015-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon.
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ760-180015-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ761-180015-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ762-180015-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.MON...E wind 20 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ763-180015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Snow showers.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.MON...E wind 25 kt.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt.
.WED...E wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ764-180015-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 kt.
.WED...E wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ765-180015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Snow showers.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ767-180015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
241 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 30 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.SUN...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 25 kt. 
Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 21 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 PM AKST Thu Jan 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The main tap from the atmospheric river can be seen on Kenai and
Middleton Island radars this afternoon with high reflectivities
indicative of the moisture content on its way for this storm. Warm
air began to intrude into the region this morning, with the Kenai
Peninsula, Copper Valley and Mat Valley already in the mid-
thirties to 40s. Anchorage and the Susitna Valley have maintained
a northwest wind and remained colder, but this will change through
the night as strong winds aloft mix down warmer air from Talkeetna
south into Anchorage. The most likely area within the abundance of
Winter Weather Advisories to receive true freezing rain tonight
(rain falling into a cold layer of air) will be from Willow north
to Talkeetna, where winds will have a harder time mixing in the
warmer temperatures. Elsewhere, rain falling onto frozen and snow
covered roadways will be the main ice hazard.

Forecast confidence has increased greatly today with most weather
models now in solid agreement. As seen on radar, the abundance of
moisture streaming north from Hawaii is already starting to
saturate the column, despite strong southeasterly winds. Through
the night, winds aloft will transition from southeasterly to more
southerly, negating the downsloping effect and allowing for 0.3 to
1.25 inches of liquid equivalent to fall for most of the
population centers. Conditions will change quickly tomorrow
morning as the cold air rapidly surges back in from the southwest.
Strong winds, gusting 40 to 55 mph out of the southwest will bring
cold air in to the western Kenai, Anchorage and the Mat Valley,
transitioning rain to snow at the tail end of the event. The
somewhat rapid refreeze may cause any remaining water on the roads
to freeze. The morning commute may be hazardous tomorrow.

For the Copper Basin, warm air has already pushed far to the
north, with rain now expected to be the main precipitation type.
Rain falling onto snow covered and frozen ground may freeze on
impact. Luckily, as far as chinook events go, this one is
relatively short in nature, with the system fully out of the
region by Friday afternoon. An additional weaker storm will move
in on Saturday, bringing light precipitation to the eastern Kenai,
Kodiak and the Susitna Valley. This will be another warm system
with more details to come.

-CJ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday night)...

A true winter storm is in progress with multiple hazards and all
p-types on the board for the southern Alaska Peninsula and
Southwest Alaska. An upper level trough is taking a negative tilt
over the Central/Eastern Aleutians and further amplifying the 500
mb pattern with difluent flow across much of Alaska and sharp
ridging downstream over the Gulf.

A strong warm front is draped northeast to southwest just
north/inland of the Bristol Bay region with a substantial amount
of warm air advection streaming over places like King Salmon -
where it is near 40F and raining, and a northerly wind holding on
at the surface for interior Southwest locations such as Bethel
where it is currently -5F. With ample moisture riding up and over
the front with cold air undercutting it at the surface, p-types
between Bethel and Dillingham range from all snow (and heavy snow)
farther to the north to pure freezing rain or plain rain to the
south.

The forecast is largely on track, and more mixed p-types will be
introduced to northern portions of Southwest Alaska as the
afternoon and evening wears on as temperatures warm aloft. Winter
Weather Advisories remain in effect for heavy mixed precipitation
and a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Dillingham
northward to Crooked Creek for snow and light ice amounts. Along
with freezing rain being a self limiting p-type, with such a fast
progression of the front, the freezing rain potential is very
brief and the p-type transition will be snow to a quick shot of
freezing rain, and then over to cold rain for areas south of the
central Kuskokwim Valley. Heavier precipitation rates with
freezing rain will also result in more latent heat release,
further adding to the surface warming process. It seems that the
farthest north that rain will spread inland will be a corridor
from Lime Village southwestward to Togiak and Twin Hills.

By Friday morning, the surface low will be working northward up
the southwest Alaska coastline, with cold air advection in the
wake of the low. Most of the guidance has the upper low/trough
component moving in at this time as well, which will help the
column to dynamically cool and erode away the low level inversion
to back below freezing. Therefore, precipitation ending as snow
showers seems likely for Southwest Alaska and the Alaska
Peninsula. Depending on the strength of the advection, it is
possible to see blowing snow issues as the storm system departs
the region.

As the current system moves away midday Friday, another system is
on its heels, but much farther west. A gale force front with
embedded storm force winds arrives to Nikolski, Unalaska, and
Akutan late Friday morning or midday Friday.

-AM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

A major pattern shift will occur as we head to the extended
forecast period on Monday, with an upper level ridge building over
mainland Alaska. This will lead to quiet weather for southern AK,
a much needed break from the long string of impactful storm
systems affecting the area since Christmas. There are some minor
model differences with the position of the ridge and handling of
weak features along the periphery, but none of those look like
they would cause any significant weather. There are signs that the
ridge will begin to retrograde westward late in the week, which
could bring Arctic air southward across mainland Alaska.

Meanwhile, the Bering Sea and Aleutians will be much more active,
with deep storm systems tracking northward from the Pacific
across the Aleutians and Bering Sea. This will bring routine doses
of warmer air northward, so the main impact will be strong winds
and rain with each storm system.

-SEB

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...It is a very complex weather situation for this evening
into Friday afternoon. The main issues will be wind, wind shear
and precipitation type. We start this afternoon with light snow
around the airport with VFR conditions. Surface winds should
remain northerly up to 10 kt, but the wind shear level is expected
to be around 1000 ft above the ground where winds will be
southeasterly from 45 to 55 kt through most of the overnight hours.
This evening, the precipitation should turn to freezing rain and
then to rain and increase in intensity. It looks like conditions
should remain VRF even in the rain or freezing rain, but
occasional MVFR ceilings are possible.

Early Friday morning the winds will abruptly shift to the
Southeast out of Turnagain Arm with gusts up to 40 kt. This will
end the wind shear with the winds making their way to the surface.
By late morning, winds will remain strong but shift to the south-
southwest as a cold front moves through from the southwest. The
biggest uncertainty is whether there will be a quick burst of
snow (possibly down to IFR conditions) as the front moves through,
or if the rain ends before the air gets cold enough to switch to
snow. All conditions should improve Friday evening.

&&